Russia/Ukraine Conflict

[Surrealplaces]

Those neo-Nazis (called the Azov regiment) are among the fiercest Ukrainian fighters in Mariupol. They are the only reason why Russia has not taken the city over completely and instead resorted to bombing it to pieces.
I can't believe Putin and his inner circle would be that stupid to think that this small group was representative of the political leanings and beliefs of all of Ukraine. Some pre-invasion intelligence from Kyiv, Karkiv or Odesa would have ascertained that the country was very much operating like a free and fair democracy. Democracy is what Putin fears the most, not nazism.

There would have most definitely been plenty of intelligence from Ukraine before the invasion, especially given the amount of Russian 'loyalists' in Ukraine. I'm just saying it's difficult to say what Putin himself knows. This is in no way trying to defend Putin, he still is the root of the problem. Some of the things he says and does makes me wonder if he's insane, stupid, or being fed exaggerated info from other like minded people, or most likely a combination of all three.

 

[UrbanWarrior]

There is certainly a lot of megalomania in there (insanity + being surrounded by nothing but sycophants + having what is essentially absolute power over an enormous area of the planet). So I don’t think he’s stupid, and I don’t think that’s ever been part of the equation. I think he’s a senile fool - literally, “a person who acts unwisely” - who is longing to restore an Empire that didn’t even want itself to exist. This is his legacy project, and he thought it would be an easy win, somehow. But if he couldn’t conquer Georgia in 2008, he certainly won’t be able to conquer Ukraine, now or ever. 14 years later and Georgia has a pro-western president planning on joining the EU.

I forget who said that after Ukraine wins this war it will make them the most powerful army in Europe, but they’re right. And being on the eastern flank, the EU should be doing everything they can to welcome them in if only just for the sake of collective defense, a million battle-hardened soldiers to defend the alliance, and restoring the European security architecture to stronger than it was pre-invasion. This should include EU spending money on helping their efforts toward accession (economic development, reconstruction, infrastructure modernization, tackling corruption, criminal Justice reform, etc). This external help would also help turn the “chapters” of the book of accession more quickly as well.

Anyways, I digress. SLAVA UKRAINI!

 

[DougB]

Philip Morris donates 500,000 packs of cigarettes to Ukrainian army

The tobacco company said it’s working on options for leaving the Russian market, joining scores of multinationals that are scaling back operations in the…

nationalpost.com

They should donate cigarettes to the Russian Army instead. Maybe Smirnov can donate some vodka to the Russian Army.

 

[UrbanWarrior]

A really large proportion of Ukrainians are smokers, and I’m sure that ratio is much higher in the army. It’s better for them to have the smokes than to not, if they’re already addicted. Withdrawal isn’t exactly a morale booster on the battlefield.

 

[JonnyCanuck]

Putin has played his other 'ace'. Demanding that Europe pay for oil & gas in rubles or he will terminate the contracts.

 

[darwink]

Putin has played his other 'ace'. Demanding that Europe pay for oil & gas in rubles or he will terminate the contracts.

Which, you know, I guess, but not really, matters.

Going into spring and playing the gas weapon is pretty odd.

The order of operations here is just misguided. Recognize the full extent of the breakaway republics, demand the Crimea canal be restored, but don't attack! Cut off Gas on March 1 to everyone but Germany. Draw down foreign currency reserves. Instead they attacked with a inferior force.

This 'ace' is a very symbolic thing, forcing the EU to violate their own sanctions. But it doesn't change anything else.

Personally, my recommended response would be to offer payment in gold. And be prepared for full cutoff. Better for Europe to turn the screws for a few more months to be in a better position for the fall, than fold today.

 

[JonnyCanuck]

It is hard to believe that an army in today's world could commit the atrocities against civilians that the Russian army is obviously guilty of. Of course the usual response from Russia .. 'it was all faked or Ukraine deliberately killed their own civilians in order to blame Russia'. And .... Putin's biggest 'fanboy', Donald Trump, has yet to speak out about it. Just the kind of quality of character you want in a past or future president of the United States.

 

[darwink]

It is hard to believe that an army in today's world a military could commit the atrocities against civilians that the Russian army is obviously guilty of. Of course the usual response from Russia .. 'it was all faked or Ukraine deliberately killed their own civilians in order to blame Russia'. And .... Putin's biggest 'fanboy', Donald Trump, has yet to speak out about it. Just the kind of quality of character you want in a past or future president of the United States.

I think this is part of a pattern in us in the west. We see the big cities and assume that Russia is a middle income country, where most everyone enjoys a middle income country lifestyle. In reality, it is poorer than Mexico. And even worse a big percentage of its GDP is outright stolen each year, and to enable that theft an even larger percentage of GDP is wasted (if you give a construction contract and the oilgarch needs 10x the profit, but you can't just hide that much pure profit, you have to inflate the base cost to make the profit seem reasonable). Russia would be much more efficient if the oligarchs were nobility and they could just directly receive their cut every year, instead of trying to hide it.

Most Russians don't have running water at home. Outside of the larger centres, places barely have street lights. Outside of select parts of european russia roads are impassable for parts of the year. Things we in the west just don't conceive of as compatible with being a modern place. It would be like when driving to Grande Prairie, pulling into Mayerthorpe and it was stuck before rural electrification.

There is a reason troops are looting household appliance white goods like washing machines along with TVs—beyond seeing them as spoils of war, they see them as very valuable, perhaps even out of reach to their families.

Not excusing any of the crimes, just that we are surprised by a poor place having a poor military, with poor discipline. I guess we shouldn't be.

 

[Mountain Man]

It is hard to believe that an army in today's world a military could commit the atrocities against civilians that the Russian army is obviously guilty of. Of course the usual response from Russia .. 'it was all faked or Ukraine deliberately killed their own civilians in order to blame Russia'. And .... Putin's biggest 'fanboy', Donald Trump, has yet to speak out about it. Just the kind of quality of character you want in a past or future president of the United States.

Trump is still trying to get Putin to release "the dirt" on the Bidens apparently. This is 100% proof that Trump can only think about Trump.

 

[Mountain Man]

There is certainly a lot of megalomania in there (insanity + being surrounded by nothing but sycophants + having what is essentially absolute power over an enormous area of the planet). So I don’t think he’s stupid, and I don’t think that’s ever been part of the equation. I think he’s a senile fool - literally, “a person who acts unwisely” - who is longing to restore an Empire that didn’t even want itself to exist. This is his legacy project, and he thought it would be an easy win, somehow. But if he couldn’t conquer Georgia in 2008, he certainly won’t be able to conquer Ukraine, now or ever. 14 years later and Georgia has a pro-western president planning on joining the EU.

I forget who said that after Ukraine wins this war it will make them the most powerful army in Europe, but they’re right. And being on the eastern flank, the EU should be doing everything they can to welcome them in if only just for the sake of collective defense, a million battle-hardened soldiers to defend the alliance, and restoring the European security architecture to stronger than it was pre-invasion. This should include EU spending money on helping their efforts toward accession (economic development, reconstruction, infrastructure modernization, tackling corruption, criminal Justice reform, etc). This external help would also help turn the “chapters” of the book of accession more quickly as well.

Anyways, I digress. SLAVA UKRAINI!
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Ukraine will not be the most powerful Army in Europe, not even close, that is and will always be Germany. Ukraine will be a lot stronger than before, but Germany would easily beat Russia in all out war, likely the same for the UK and France. Having a large army is nice for military parades, but unless they are well trained and equipped they are not super effective (as we now see). Putin's only real strength is the nuclear arsenal, but there are a lot of questions about what kind of shape it's in. Ukraine will still be a step or 3 below the major western powers who develop the weapons systems they are using.

Where Russia would be nearly unbeatable is in a traditional war where their backs are against a wall. In a war against NATO, the tactics would be where Putin would lose and likely press the red button. Modern warfare is all about the initial strikes that reduce the capacity of the military and it's leadership (that includes the government) to coordinate and respond. This is why everyone is so confused as to the tactics of Putin, he didn't cripple the Ukranian government with air strikes prior to his invasion and left the air power and anti aircraft batteries in tact. In a western attack against Russia, the Kremlin would likely be the first target, along with air bases, anti aircraft missiles and logistical infrastructure. Putin only knows how to fight dirty, not smart.

 

[Patrick.1980]

I think this is part of a pattern in us in the west. We see the big cities and assume that Russia is a middle income country, where most everyone enjoys a middle income country lifestyle. In reality, it is poorer than Mexico. And even worse a big percentage of its GDP is outright stolen each year, and to enable that theft an even larger percentage of GDP is wasted (if you give a construction contract and the oilgarch needs 10x the profit, but you can't just hide that much pure profit, you have to inflate the base cost to make the profit seem reasonable). Russia would be much more efficient if the oligarchs were nobility and they could just directly receive their cut every year, instead of trying to hide it.

Most Russians don't have running water at home. Outside of the larger centres, places barely have street lights. Outside of select parts of european russia roads are impassable for parts of the year. Things we in the west just don't conceive of as compatible with being a modern place. It would be like when driving to Grande Prairie, pulling into Mayerthorpe and it was stuck before rural electrification.

There is a reason troops are looting household appliance white goods like washing machines along with TVs—beyond seeing them as spoils of war, they see them as very valuable, perhaps even out of reach to their families.

Not excusing any of the crimes, just that we are surprised by a poor place having a poor military, with poor discipline. I guess we shouldn't be.

On the dot. For anyone who wonders what Russia is really like try doing a Google streetview of anywhere other than their largest 4 or 5 cities, and you'll see things quickly drop off. Also in most Russian cities, the core of the city is generally fine, but the quality of the city drops off quickly once you leave the core. It's similar to how US cities have ghettos, but instead of the ghetto being 0% of the city it would be 75% of the city.

 

[darwink]

This is why everyone is so confused as to the tactics of Putin, he didn't cripple the Ukranian government with air strikes prior to his invasion and left the air power and anti aircraft batteries in tact. In a western attack against Russia, the Kremlin would likely be the first target, along with air bases, anti aircraft missiles and logistical infrastructure. Putin only knows how to fight dirty, not smart.

I would modify this from "knows" to "can afford". Of only one weapon, JDAMs, the USA has 200k in inventory, with 40k per year produced. Paveways? 10,000 per year are produced. Cruise missiles? A JASSM a day, and a Tomahawk a day. In the west France, Norway, Germany, Sweden, the UK all produce their own supplies of precision weapons on top of this.

Russia has reportedly went through most of the precision inventory already, with less that 200 guided bombs, 400 cruise missiles, and 400 high precision short range ballistic missiles employed. The rest can't be used because they are reserved for the nuclear mission.

In comparison Canada ALONE dropped 696 precision munitions in Libya. From 7 planes! NATO/allies in total lost no aircraft to Libyan action, and destroyed an air defence network at least as dense as Ukraine's with only 200 aircraft used in total.

Russia just can't execute a western way of war, they couldn't or didn't choose to afford the right tools. They bought plenty of aircraft capable of delivering precision weapons, but I bet they wish they bought 40 less and had 10,000 more weapons ready in warehouses instead.

 

[Duck Lightning]

Russia after a decade of growth in the 2000s has now fallen back on itself and become a propaganda state that has a top heavy government/economy that makes it's citizens suffer to prop itself up militarily. This is essentially what Russia was under the Soviets which proves that lessons were not learned. Under sanctions things are only going to get worse for the Russian people but unfortunately Putin's popularity in Russia is surging right now because of propaganda. Still the Russians will reap what they sow.

 

[DougB]

Putin has played his other 'ace'. Demanding that Europe pay for oil & gas in rubles or he will terminate the contracts.

Unsure what that would accomplish beyond demonstrating that customers would follow Putin. Russia needs foreign exchange. Pricing energy in rubles would reduce Russian access to USD and EUR
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[JonnyCanuck]

Russia after a decade of growth in the 2000s has now fallen back on itself and become a propaganda state that has a top heavy government/economy that makes it's citizens suffer to prop itself up militarily. This is essentially what Russia was under the Soviets which proves that lessons were not learned. Under sanctions things are only going to get worse for the Russian people but unfortunately Putin's popularity in Russia is surging right now because of propaganda. Still the Russians will reap what they sow.

I saw a clip of an interview that was taken on the street somewhere in Russia recently. People were being asked about whether the operation in Russia was justified. I was shocked to hear such statements (I am paraphrasing) like ' .... we should wipe out the Ukrainian population and the land in Ukraine belongs to Russia". I don't know what percentage of the Russian population truly feels that way but whatever it is, they don't show the least bit of sympathy to Ukraine. No humanity or decency in sight.