Alberta Provincial Politics

[Surrealplaces]

Poll shows UCP, NDP at statistical tie in key Calgary battleground

The Angus Reid poll is the latest to show a tight race between the two parties as the weeks tick down to the expected May 29 vote.

calgaryherald.com

No real news here. The election still comes down to how many seats the NDP can win in Calgary. If the NDP can take 20 or more from Calgary that might be enough.

 

[Cowtown]

Whatever the result is, it’s going to be close. Calgary, of course is the key battleground, but Edmonton’s exurbs and Lethbridge are also keys. Lethbridge was close last election and if the NDP can take those two seats from the UCP, it will help. Also, if the NDP can take even a couple of seats from Edmonton‘s 6 exurb ridings it can make a big difference.
Assuming the NDP can take all 21 ridings from Edmonton, the 2 from Lethbridge, and 2 from surrounding Edmonton, it would put the NDP at 25. There’s also the Banff Kananaskis riding, another one. I think the NDP might be able to take this time.
If that were to happen the NDP would then need 18 out of Calgary’s 26 ridings. Something I think is challenging, but possible.

 

[Surrealplaces]

This chart below from @Silence&Motion spells it out well. A 25% vote shift would generally do it, but it also depends on where the overall shift is. If the shift can happen at ridings that were 25% margin or less, the NDP could find victory. It would give them 19 Calgary ridings, and I think it would be just enough, assuming some victories in other parts of the province. It should be noted that the NDP already has one of the two Lethbridge seats.

These 3 ridings were won by the NDP, and I see no reason they wouldn't be won again.
Calgary Buffalo
Calgary McCall
Calgary Mountainview

These ridings that had less than 20% margin in the last election in Calgary, and that I think can be flipped.
Calgary Falconridge 0.7%
Calgary Currie 0.8%
Calgary Varsity 2.8%
Calgary Klein 7.7%
Calgary NorthEast 13.7%
Calgary Elbow 13.8%
Calgary Cross 16.9%
Calgary East 17.5%
Calgary Beddington 17.5%
Calgary Edgemont 18.8%
Calgary Acadia 19.7%

These are the ones that were between 20% and 30%
Calgary Bow 21.7%
Calgary Glenmore 23.6%
Calgary North 24.1%
Calgary Foothills 24.6%
Calgary Northwest 24.9%

There were 7 ridings that I won't list that had a margin higher than 30% and are a write off for the NDP.

# Ridings	UCP lead over NDP, 2019 election	NDP wins if a 25% vote shift
Calgary	26	18.7%	19/26
Calgary Exurbs	6	45.5%	1/6
Edmonton	20	-18.2%	20/20
Edmonton Exurbs	7	17.2%	5/7
Red Deer	2	36.1%	0/2
Lethbridge	2	6.4%	2/2
North	9	47.2%	1/9
Central	10	56.1%	0/10
South	5	51.3%	0/5
Total	87	22.2%	48

 

[ByeByeBaby]

The NDP need to pick up 20 seats total.
Edmonton: 1 riding available; should win (it was a narrow UCP win last time, Kaycee Madu has not covered himself in glory as a cabinet minister).

Edmonton region: There are seven seats here, and what's fascinating is that the vote shares in 2019 look almost exactly like the City of Calgary vote shares: Calgary went 34% NDP / 53% UCP and the NDP won 12% of the seats; the Edmonton region went 34% NDP / 51% UCP and the NDP won 14% of the seats. I think that the good news and bad news is that I would expect similar swings in this area and in Calgary; on one hand, there are 6 UCP seats to be won, but on the other hand, if Calgary doesn't do well for the NDP, this area won't bail the NDP out. The NDP won St. Albert last time, and the remaining seats (with UCP margin) are:
Sherwood Park 5.4%
Morinville-St. Albert 16.9%
Strathcona-Sherwood Park 20.2%
Fort Saskatchewan-Vegreville 24.3%
Spruce Grove-Stony Plain 30.0%
Leduc-Beaumont 30.1%

Remainder of the province: Three seats that I think are reasonably likely NDP gains, and then a brick wall.
Banff-Kananaskis 9.3% -- a rancher-and-conservationist district
Lethbridge East 13.7%
Lesser Slave Lake 21.6% -- the previous NDP MLA (and cabinet minister), a nurse, is running again to try and take this seat back; the current UCP MLA was booted from the UCP caucus for gross negligence in representing his constituents (but is not running).
The next seat after that is Red Deer South, 34.8% UCP margin. If the NDP wins seats like this, it'll be a rout, and I'll be very pleasantly shocked.

So equal vote swing models are bunk, but if the NDP does exactly as well as the UCP in Calgary voting, they'd gain 9 seats (up to Calgary-Edgemont, which is 18.8% UCP margin); with probably 5 more in the rest of the province 16 more; not enough. (Edmonton, two in the Edmonton region, two of the three remainders). If the NDP beats the UCP: by about four percent in Calgary, and win seats with a 22% or less UCP margin, they'd likely gain three more seats (Acadia, Elbow, Bow) here, and two more elsewhere (Strath-SP, LSL). That's a gain of 21 seats, which is (juuuust barely) government territory.

What's interesting is that there isn't a single seat in the province that the UCP won by a 25% to 30% margin. That particular breakpoint has 16 Calgary seats, the Edmonton seat, four Edmonton region seats, and three remainder seats; a gain of 24 seats.

 

[Surrealplaces]

In these latest polls that say the UCP and NDP are equal in Calgary, it would be interesting to know the numbers by riding. As we see in some of the numbers from 2019, some of the Calgary suburban ridings, the UCP had a huge lead, which makes me wonder what the current numbers are for the ridings that were closer last election.
I'm not aware of polling numbers by riding, maybe someone else has come across such numbers?

 

[darwink]

The Think HQ poll breaks it into CMA vs City. That is likely the best we're going to get.

While the CMA is tied:

in the City the NDP enjoy a healthy lead.

 

[CalgaryTiger]

In these latest polls that say the UCP and NDP are equal in Calgary, it would be interesting to know the numbers by riding. As we see in some of the numbers from 2019, some of the Calgary suburban ridings, the UCP had a huge lead, which makes me wonder what the current numbers are for the ridings that were closer last election.
I'm not aware of polling numbers by riding, maybe someone else has come across such numbers?

This would be very difficult for a pollster to get. Not sure how many per riding you would have to get to get an accurate reading, 500? On a large scale poll that's a lot of work. Which is why polling is okay for broad snapshots in time but not very good at measuring focused things.

I'm not sure how anyone can be undecided at this point but those people will decide the winner. IMO these people will go where the momentum is, swing voters have tendency to want to be on the winning side. It will be critical that the parties get out their vote and motivate their base that their vote matters, while also showing confidence that they're going to win to not scare away the undecided. I think we see a motivated electorate either way that leads to a decent voter turnout.

 

[darwink]

how many per riding you would have to get to get an accurate reading, 500

250 will get you usable data with a 6% margin of error. Accurately tying it to the riding is the expensive part - you need to have every respondent enter in their postal code whether in a voice recording on another system.

The 'cheapest' polls do no verification, and just ask whether you're in calgary, edmonton, or other. For ridings that doesn't really work as most people don't know which riding they live in.

I'm not sure how anyone can be undecided at this point but those people will decide the winner.

Many people don't pay attention nearly at all. Even the vast majority end up with their political positions due to their social networks. It is an economy of information thing: why spend time and effort on it when someone who is in similar circumstances to you will tell you how they're voting and why.

This isn't really a conscious choice, just how humans work.

 

[ByeByeBaby]

Looking at those ThinkHQ poll numbers, and assuming the same number of voters as last time, and using ridings to break out the CMAs gives me a 49%/43% NDP lead in the 7 Edmonton region ridings I mentioned above, which is 1% higher than the margin in the city of Calgary. Suggests that those two areas might be more-or-less in sync again. It also shows almost no gain in the Calgary region (the remainder of the CMA); these three ridings (Airdrie-Cochrane, Airdrie-East, Chestermere-Strathmore) went 20.6%/67.2% NDP last time, and the poll implies roughly 23%/67% today.

Assuming equal swing (always wrong -- I really wish a pollster would do MRP; maybe I should offer to set that up for one), 48%/42% in Calgary city would swing every single one of the 16 Calgary ridings Surrealplaces listed above, as well as four in the Edmonton region, plus one in the city and three in the remainder of the province, which would be a 48-39 seat count in favour of the NDP.

 

[Surrealplaces]

Right now I'm going to focus my hope on this section of Darwink's graph. It's promising to see the NDP ahead in Calgary city, especially considering how far behind they were in Calgary last election.

Last election the UCP had a massive lead going in, but still lost 3 seats, and barely won 3 others.

 

[Surrealplaces]

Rajan Sawhney appointed as UCP candidate in Calgary-North West

Sawhney had announced she wouldn't seek re-election in Calgary-North East, but is now returning to contest another riding in the city.

calgaryherald.com

I think this is the result of some backroom juggling. she announced she wouldn't run in Calgary NE...a riding that is quite possibly going to the NDP, so they moved her to a safe riding they think she could win. I would get a chuckle if the UCP lost this riding as well.

 

[darwink]

With the polling we’ve seen I wouldn't call any riding in the north safe.

 

[Surrealplaces]

With the polling we’ve seen I wouldn't call any riding in the north safe.

Have we seen any polls specific to the northwest part of Calgary? I'm curious to see what the general read is. Calgary NW is one I would have assumed to be somewhat safe...not as safe as last election, where there was a 6K vote differential, but a riding that could be won.

 

[zagox]

Have we seen any polls specific to the northwest part of Calgary? I'm curious to see what the general read is. Calgary NW is one I would have assumed to be somewhat safe...not as safe as last election, where there was a 6K vote differential, but a riding that could be won.

338 Canada has Calgary NE rated as "Leaning NDP gain" and Calgary NW rated as "Toss Up". I think this is a case of Sawhney - correctly, in my view - deciding that she was going to lose for sure in NE and didn't want to play that game. Then, UCP decided that she could make the difference and win in a close riding, which also seems reasonable.

 

[Surrealplaces]

338 Canada has Calgary NE rated as "Leaning NDP gain" and Calgary NW rated as "Toss Up". I think this is a case of Sawhney - correctly, in my view - deciding that she was going to lose for sure in NE and didn't want to play that game. Then, UCP decided that she could make the difference and win in a close riding, which also seems reasonable.

That seems to be the case for sure. It makes sense from a politics move. The fact that Calgary NW is even a toss up is not a good sign for the UCP.