Alberta Provincial Politics

[Duck Lightning]

All the talk about the Flames moving has been to Houston, nothing about Quebec before Smith. And the economic reality in Quebec prevents them from having a team anyway, Bettman has all but said so. Quebec is always on Smith's mind, she even states that she wants the same deal for Alberta within Canada that Quebec has (though I'm not sure what that is). I'm surprised she doesn't find a way to use the arena to bash Trudeau! lol

Smith wants Alberta to be a have-not province so we can receive transfers like they do. That's the only explanation I can get from her policies so far and lets face it with conservatives reluctance from expanding our economy away from oil and the world largely moving away from a reliance on it we will become a have-not province in the not to distant future.

 

[CalgaryTiger]

I tend to agree with what that article says, and even in the face of the most recent polls, I still think the NDP will get the victory. for me nothing's changed, as it all comes down to Calgary, and I think the NDP will take most of the Calgary ridings, even if some are close calls, they just need to get the ridings.

People don't like how the Liberals win federally by strategically putting their resources into ridings that win them elections. The NDP need to do that same here, and they'll have a chance.

 

[UrbanWarrior]

Smith wants Alberta to be a have-not province so we can receive transfers like they do. That's the only explanation I can get from her policies so far and lets face it with conservatives reluctance from expanding our economy away from oil and the world largely moving away from a reliance on it we will become a have-not province in the not to distant future.

I agree that this appears to be what they want. All they do is constantly cry the victim. However, if the diversification in Calgary is any indication, I don’t think we even could become a have-not province despite the UCPs best efforts unless they seriously try to destabilize the federation, in which case they’ll drive more business and diversification opportunities away. Edmonton will be fine as they have government and the major university. Calgary is really the one that will be hurt by their many ludicrous policies. I hope people realize this by May.

 

[JonnyCanuck]

Smith wants Alberta to be a have-not province so we can receive transfers like they do. That's the only explanation I can get from her policies so far and lets face it with conservatives reluctance from expanding our economy away from oil and the world largely moving away from a reliance on it we will become a have-not province in the not to distant future.

Oil and especially natural gas will continue to be a significant driver of Alberta's economy for decades to come. There a number of projects underway already in Alberta (wind, solar, hydrogen, lithium) and a burgeoning tech industry that are aimed at diversifying the provinces' economy.

As for the 'world largely moving away from a reliance on oil & gas', there is reason to doubt that commitment and how soon it will happen.
North America - committed
Western Europe - committed
Eastern Europe - not so committed
Most of Asia - not committed
Most of South America - not committed
Most of Africa - not committed

I realize a lot of countries signed on to the many climate change agreements that have evolved over the years, but many have not taken any tangible action. Changing governments can and do interrupt that progress.
North American and Western Europe are not going to be the difference makers in the transition to green energy.

 

[CalgaryTiger]

Oil and especially natural gas will continue to be a significant driver of Alberta's economy for decades to come. There a number of projects underway already in Alberta (wind, solar, hydrogen, lithium) and a burgeoning tech industry that are aimed at diversifying the provinces' economy.

As for the 'world largely moving away from a reliance on oil & gas', there is reason to doubt that commitment and how soon it will happen.
North America - committed
Western Europe - committed
Eastern Europe - not so committed
Most of Asia - not committed
Most of South America - not committed
Most of Africa - not committed

I realize a lot of countries signed on to the many climate change agreements that have evolved over the years, but many have not taken any tangible action. Changing governments can and do interrupt that progress.
North American and Western Europe are not going to be the difference makers in the transition to green energy.

One thing that should not overlooked is where the 'not committed' countries get their oil and natural gas. So, sure it isn't going anywhere globally but our biggest customers are looking at other options. To capitalize on the change Alberta will need to broaden its customer base (at great expense).

 

[Surrealplaces]

Oil and especially natural gas will continue to be a significant driver of Alberta's economy for decades to come. There a number of projects underway already in Alberta (wind, solar, hydrogen, lithium) and a burgeoning tech industry that are aimed at diversifying the provinces' economy.

As for the 'world largely moving away from a reliance on oil & gas', there is reason to doubt that commitment and how soon it will happen.
North America - committed
Western Europe - committed
Eastern Europe - not so committed
Most of Asia - not committed
Most of South America - not committed
Most of Africa - not committed

I realize a lot of countries signed on to the many climate change agreements that have evolved over the years, but many have not taken any tangible action. Changing governments can and do interrupt that progress.
North American and Western Europe are not going to be the difference makers in the transition to green energy.

I agree that oil usage won't be going down quickly anytime soon, and that world reliance is going to go for a while yet. I think Alberta is still vulnerable in the sense that it's still a lot more expensive to produce here, and when we hit a point when world consumption starts to drop it will hit us harder than other countries. This is a projection of world oil consumption up to 2026. It shows world consumption continuing to climb, and I don't doubt this. The part that concerns me is 2020, when world consumption dropped by 9% the price dropped severely. It's a warning of what's to come.

When we hit the down slope of world consumption it won't be as sudden and severe as covid 2020, but it will produce a situation where there is an excess amount, and the price will drop. It's likely Alberta's oil industry will continue to produce oil in areas where it's cheap enough to make a profit, but from the point on, it's the beginning of the end, with no recoveries.

Gas is different of course. That industry will be going for a while. O&G will be a part of Alberta's economy, but IMO it's going to be lucrative for another 5-15 years, and how much of that will actually affect Alberta is hard to say. O&G isn't hiring or spending money like they used to, and a lot of the profits are leaving the country.

Global crude oil demand 2023 | Statista

The global demand for crude oil (including biofuels) in 2022 amounted to 99.57 million barrels per day and it is projected to increase to 101.89 million barrels per day in 2023.

www.statista.com

 

[darwink]

To capitalize on the change Alberta will need to broaden its customer base (at great expense).

Bingo. And it might not be worth it if we need to deploy carbon capture, build new phases of mines/SAGD, and build new market access infrastructure all at the same time. We might not be as a competitive as we believed when we were the only provider to a ready market (USA mid-West) with the highest relative prices in the world.

 

[Surrealplaces]

Braid: Small gains in Calgary won't be enough for the NDP. Notley has to flip the whole city

The NDP has to win virtually all of Calgary to take the next election. Hence the NDP is moving its central campaign from Edmonton.

calgaryherald.com

Nothing that we didn't already know, but interesting to note that the NDP moving their campaign HQ to Calgary. Everyone knows where the key to the election is.

 

[darwink]

Biggs: Alberta Budget 2023 is meant to elicit nostalgia - LiveWire Calgary

If there is one feeling Alberta’s Budget, introduced by Finance Minister Travis Toews on Feb. 28, 2023, is meant to elicit in Albertans it is nostalgia. A longing for a past that’s remembered more fondly than it was at the time, perhaps to the point of becoming a myth. If we just re-elect the...

livewirecalgary.com

 

[Surrealplaces]

Interesting article regarding the election.

Taking Back Alberta? Questions surround right-wing group and its political power

TBA was started last year by long-time right-wing activist David Parker. It began as a way to push back against COVID-19 measures, but has since drastically grown.

calgary.ctvnews.ca

 

[JonnyCanuck]

Interesting article regarding the election.

A lot of similarities to Trump's MAGA agenda. The main difference being that TBA does not have a populist leader who wants to be a dictator.

I guess we will see in the election whether Danielle Smith is really a 'puppet' for this movement.

 

[darwink]

A lot of similarities to Trump's MAGA agenda. The main difference being that TBA does not have a populist leader who wants to be a dictator.

I guess we will see in the election whether Danielle Smith is really a 'puppet' for this movement.

I dunno, the instinct was sure there in the Alberta Sovereignty Act draft, allowing cabinet to change any law it wanted without going to the legislature. It was sure there when it was proposed, with the goal of overruling the Courts, and ignoring laws passed by other levels of government. The instinct is there in blaming every problem on someone else, in communicating directly with prosecutors to try to get them to drop criminal charges, in wanting credit for solving problems they created, in spending millions to try to embarrass other levels of government and failing.

 

[Mountain Man]

The whole right seems to be sliding further into crazy-land. I get the pushback against "woke-ism" but things seems to have gone far past that.

 

[Atticus]

Interesting article regarding the election.

Taking Back Alberta? Questions surround right-wing group and its political power

TBA was started last year by long-time right-wing activist David Parker. It began as a way to push back against COVID-19 measures, but has since drastically grown.

calgary.ctvnews.ca

I'm definitely voting against the UCP.

 

[Ned]

https://twitter.com/i/web/status/1641124736624214048

https://twitter.com/i/web/status/1641115690894516225