Alberta Provincial Politics

[JonnyCanuck]

https://www.cbc.ca/news/canada/calgary/danielle-smith-treaty-6-sovereignty-act-legislation-1.6685406

Smith is digging herself a bigger hole. I have lost count of the dumb things she has said and then apologized for saying afterwards

 

[CalgaryTiger]

I read that and was not surprised. Of course someone who thinks the unvaccinated are the most discriminated against people ever would say this about Alberta's relationship with the federal government. She's really good at talking to her base but very bad at speaking to the things that matter to every other Albertan.

The tough thing is if you're Notley you have to be able to seize this opportunity without looking like you're entitled to win just because Smith is so bad at her job.

 

[darwink]

I read that and was not surprised. Of course someone who thinks the unvaccinated are the most discriminated against people ever would say this about Alberta's relationship with the federal government. She's really good at talking to her base but very bad at speaking to the things that matter to every other Albertan.

The tough thing is if you're Notley you have to be able to seize this opportunity without looking like you're entitled to win just because Smith is so bad at her job.

Unvaccinated Drivers Could Pay More for Insurance, as Study Finds Higher Crash Risk

 

[CalgaryTiger]

Unvaccinated Drivers Could Pay More for Insurance, as Study Finds Higher Crash Risk

Not how I thought we would get insurance price caps back in this province, but I'll take it. Send it to Danielle, she'll be furious!

 

[Silence&Motion]

Another poll coming out from Abacus. They haven't released the horse race numbers yet, but they did post the following image to Twitter. We can kind of infer the horse race numbers from this image. The "reluctant UCP" voters are defined as people who voted UCP in 2019 but will not be voting UCP in 2023 (or are still undecided). I'm not sure that "reluctant UCP voter" is the right term. That would imply that they're plugging their noses and voting UCP. In reality, they voted UCP in the past, but are unlikely to do so in 2023. There's probably a lot of centrists in there who have shifted to the NDP. In fact, the other numbers indicate that this voter block sides with the NDP by double-digits on most issues, including affordability. The UCP only leads by 5 points on the economy, which is usually their strength. That would imply a sizable chunk of that 16% are now NDP voters. The question is how many. The 10% "smaller parties" also doesn't specify how these voters plan to vote in 2023. You can read more about it here:

https://twitter.com/i/web/status/1602828873812807681

 

[CalgaryTiger]

Who are these unsure people, I'd love to be so naïve?!

 

[Surrealplaces]

NDP Leader Rachel Notley pitches stability to sold-out business crowd in Calgary

CALGARY - Opposition NDP Leader Rachel Notley says she would lead a “stable, no surprises government” focused on growing the Alberta economy and provi...

www.thestar.com

Most interesting point from the artivle.
'Chamber president and CEO Deborah Yedlin says the business community is looking for certainty and stability to allow for strong investment in the province.'

 

[Silence&Motion]

Here’s the full Abacus poll: https://abacusdata.ca/alberta-politics-deep-dive-december-2022/ There's a lot of really interesting survey questions in this to explore.

They have the NDP up by 8 points province wide. Weirdly, the have the parties tied in Calgary, the NDP up by 32 in Edmonton, and the UCP up by only 9 points in the rest of the province. The regional numbers have varied wildly from survey to survey.

 

[darwink]

Weirdly, the have the parties tied in Calgary

All depends on what you count as Calgary. And tied could mean 8 points apart in either direction.

 

[Surrealplaces]

All depends on what you count as Calgary. And tied could mean 8 points apart in either direction.

It would have to be something like that, as the numbers don't make sense from a quick glance. If they're counting the 4 surrounding ridings (Banff-Cochane, Airdrie, Chestemere RV, and Highwood, possibly even Livingston-Macleod) the numbers would be somewhat different. Conversely some of Edmonton's non-city ridings like St Albert who'll likely be NDP could be considered 'rest of province'

 

[Surrealplaces]

'Edmonton's a bit ahead of Calgary': How Alberta's premier plans to even things out

Danielle Smith had great things to say about Edmonton's economy, arena and airport in her year-end interview with CTV News Edmonton.

beta.ctvnews.ca

This article shows how much she’s out of touch on things, either they or she’s hoping to get voters who are out of touch.
- She brings up the ring road, which is pointless as Calgary’s final section is almost done. Her getting elected is going to make no difference.
- She brings up Edmonton’s airport which we all know has been struggling compared to YYC. YYC doesn’t need any help from her.
- She brings up the arena. I don’t think many will change their vote on the hope they’ll she’ll come in and save the day. She might actually lose votes from fiscal conservatives.

Everything she’s doing these days smacks of desperation.

 

[darwink]

Desperation assumes connecting action to consequence.

IMO it’s just total shooting from the hip and governing based on feelings.

They don’t think the polls are bad. They don’t think what they propose is unpopular. They are truly high on their own supply - stuck in their echo chamber.

 

[Mountain Man]

Man is Smith trying to trigger people! her comments about the Quebec Flames cannot be grounded in reality, there is pretty much zero chance Quebec will get a team before several larger US markets. She just mentions Quebec to try and trigger the anti-Quebec sentiment from her base. I would guess her meddling will only endanger the agreement unless she offers up big money. A new arena will get built, it will just take time to iron out the details.

 

[403808]

Man is Smith trying to trigger people! her comments about the Quebec Flames cannot be grounded in reality, there is pretty much zero chance Quebec will get a team before several larger US markets. She just mentions Quebec to try and trigger the anti-Quebec sentiment from her base. I would guess her meddling will only endanger the agreement unless she offers up big money. A new arena will get built, it will just take time to iron out the details.

You're seeing too much in this. Smith referenced QC because the Premier said Quebec was going after a team. Regardless of the fact she was driving outside her lane, the statement had nothing to do with inflaming anyone. At the end of the day, the Flames aren't going anywhere (US or QC).

 

[Mountain Man]

I disagree, I think the Quebec reference was 100% intentional.