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Alberta Provincial Politics

If an election was held today, who would you vote for?

  • UCP

    Votes: 7 12.3%
  • NDP

    Votes: 43 75.4%
  • Liberal

    Votes: 0 0.0%
  • Alberta Party

    Votes: 3 5.3%
  • Undecided

    Votes: 4 7.0%

  • Total voters
    57
Not news to most, but worth posting anyways.
You beat me to it. I was going to say that the proposed Sovereignty bill has gone over like a lead balloon in most circles. Looks like the only votes Smith is going to win are from her base. In other words, she will gain nothing from it.
 
It still amazes me to see all her leadership rivals falling into line despite the fact that they were literally saying this bill would be a disaster a few months ago. Even Kenney slunk into retirement rather than vote against the bill that he repeatedly denounced during the leadership race.

I guess it shouldn't surprise me given what happened to the GOP and Trump. It's just annoying that the far right has no problem turning on their own leaders when they disagree, but the centre-right is so utterly cowardly. The end result is a continual pulling to the right.
 

I don't this is too much of a shock. According to their polling numbers, In Calgary the NDP were ahead 43% to 41% just before Smith took over and now it's 51% to 41% in favor of the NDP...and those numbers are before her recent plan for a sovereignty act.
 
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I don't this is too much of a shock. According to their polling numbers, In Calgary the NDP were ahead 43% to 41% just before Smith took over and now it's 51% to 41% in favor of the NDP...and those numbers are before her recent plan for a sovereignty act.
Here's the infographic:
1203-leger-poll2.png


I'll admit, I'm a little skeptical about the extreme regional variation in the Leger poll, where the UCP has a huge lead outside Calgary and Edmonton, while trailing by double-digits in both major cities. I know there's an urban/rural divide, but there is a lot of middle ground areas. The suburbs of Calgary and Edmonton are not particularly different from the exurbs or smaller cities like Red Deer which presumably count under the "Rest of Alberta".

Here's the comparison with Janet Brown's poll from a month earlier:

PollsterAlbertaEdmontonCalgaryOther
Leger (Nov 28)NDP +3NDP +22NDP +10UCP +27
Janet Brown (Oct 30)NDP +9NDP +26NDP +6UCP +8
Leger (Oct 10)NDP +2NDP +15NDP +3UCP +14
 
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Here's the infographic:
1203-leger-poll2.png


I'll admit, I'm a little skeptical about the extreme regional variation in the Leger poll, where the UCP has a huge lead outside Calgary and Edmonton, while trailing by double-digits in both major cities. I know there's an urban/rural divide, but there is a lot of middle ground areas. The suburbs of Calgary and Edmonton are not particularly different from the exurbs or smaller cities like Red Deer which presumably count under the "Rest of Alberta".

Here's the comparison with Janet Brown's poll from a month earlier:

PollsterAlbertaEdmontonCalgaryOther
Leger (Nov 28)NDP +3NDP +22NDP +10UCP +27
Janet Brown (Oct 30)NDP +9NDP +26NDP +6UCP +8
Leger (Oct 10)NDP +2NDP +15NDP +3UCP +14
I am actually shocked and appalled at how close it is.
 
I am actually shocked and appalled at how close it is.
Overall doesn't matter that much though. Edmonton will go NDP and rural Alberta will go UCP. There are only a few true battlegrounds in AB today (Calgary is the major one). Calgary has been trending towards the NDP heavily since Smith got elected, I think if this continues the UCP will fare very poorly in the general election.
 
Overall doesn't matter that much though. Edmonton will go NDP and rural Alberta will go UCP. There are only a few true battlegrounds in AB today (Calgary is the major one). Calgary has been trending towards the NDP heavily since Smith got elected, I think if this continues the UCP will fare very poorly in the general election.
I think the UCP is headed for a loss, but if they managed to pull off a victory it would be a hollow one, as it would be very close. With four more years of youth entering the voting pool in Calgary following this election, a slim victory would not be good.

Regardless of what happens in this election, the trend is clear. The young, urban up and coming voters aren't UCP voters. This isn't to say the UCPs won't ever win again, but if they continue with leaders like Danielle Smith, they're future is sealed.
 
# RidingsUCP lead over NDP, 2019 electionNDP wins if a 25% vote shift
Calgary2618.7%19/26
Calgary Exurbs645.5%1/6
Edmonton20-18.2%20/20
Edmonton Exurbs717.2%5/7
Red Deer236.1%0/2
Lethbridge26.4%2/2
North947.2%1/9
Central1056.1%0/10
South551.3%0/5
Total8722.2%48

I was interested to see what an NDP 2-3% lead in the popular vote might look like in terms of seat counts. Given that the UCP won in 2019 by 22.2% of the vote, that would mean a 25% swing from the UCP to the NDP. If we assume that the swing is generally uniform across regions, the results are a relatively comfortable 9 seat majority. Not a landslide like Kenney's victory in 2019, but not a squeaker either.

Interestingly, if you go with the Janet Brown poll and assume more like a 31% vote swing, the results do not change much. Maybe 3-4 more seats in the Calgary suburbs and Edmonton exurbs.

Of course, this is all assuming that the 25% vote swing is uniform. But it won't be. The question is whether the swing is more pronounced in the seat-rich areas.
 
Of course, this is all assuming that the 25% vote swing is uniform. But it won't be. The question is whether the swing is more pronounced in the seat-rich areas.
I'm optimistic that a 25% swing is possible in Calgary which hopefully is enough to decide it. The reason I think it'll happen is the number of people I saw holding their noses and voting UPC last election for what was mainly job/oil industry related reasons. 3 things have changed since then.
a) The economy has picked up, and it had little to do with the UCP
b) Danielle Smith is much more of worry than Jason Kenny who wasn't proposing a sovereignty act.
c) The UCPs handling of Covid will have cost them some votes as well. Those who thought the UCP took too much of a left wing stance were already UCP voters, but some of those who though they took too much of a right wing stance won't vote for them. there were all the scandals as well, like the UCP telling everyone to stay home at Christmas, while their members take off on holidays to other countries.
 

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