What I was trying to say is that Red Deer is almost certain to be considered a CMA for next time around. The
simplified definition is an area with at least 100,00 of which 50,000 or more live in the core. If Red Deer is taken by it self, without any surrounding communities, it almost already satisfies that criteria. Add in places like Blackfalds (pop: 9,328) and Lacombe (pop: 13,057) which are much closer to Red Deer than many of the Lethbridge CMA components are, and I think it's a shoe in.
If you look at the
table of CAs, there are 6 with populations of 100,000 or higher, Red Deer is among them because 700 rural residents top the city up to 100,418 people. Of these, only one Chatham-Kent, had a population greater than 100,000 in the previous census and was still considered a CA. The more complex definition of a CMA involves commuter flows, but I think the fact that the City of Red Deer alone is sure to have over 100,000 residents means that it will qualify.
Fredricton, Chilliwack, Kamloops and Nanaimo can probably make strong cases as well.
Just by looking at the maps Statcan has available, a plausible Red Deer CMA comprised of
Red Deer and
Lacombe Counties and all the subdivision within would have a population of nearly 200,000.
Red Deer: 100,418
Sylvan Lake: 14,816
Lacombe: 13,057
Blackfalds: 9,328
Innisfail: 7,847
Red Deer County: 19,541
Lacomb County: 10,343
175,350
And that probably excludes another 10,000 or so nearby residents in towns like Penhold that are incorporated and don't count towards the county numbers. The land area covered could be something loser to the size of Calgary's CMA than Lethbridge's, but even if you strip out Lacombe county, Red Deer County has more than enough.