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2016 Census results.

Oddball

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By my projection, if Alberta maintains this growth, or even slows down significantly (say down to 300 000 per census from the current 420 000), being about 600 000 behind BC, we will overtake them in population by the 2036 census at the latest, but could potentially come into close contact or slightly surpass BC by 2026 at the earliest.
I sense that we're a lot alike UW. I too look at other jurisdictions' demographics as a sort of challenge. :mad: Avast Oregon! We're coming for you!

Tell me, do you play any game like Civilization or Europa Universalis?

I also played for the Saracens and U of C Dino's Men's Rugby club. Johnny, do ya play baseball?
 
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UrbanWarrior

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I sense that we're a lot alike UW. I too look at other jurisdictions' demographics as a sort of challenge. :mad: Avast Oregon! We're coming for you!

Tell me, do you play any game like Civilization or Europa Universalis?

I also played for the Saracens and U of C Dino's Men's Rugby club. Johnny, do ya play baseball?
I never played any of those, I've just always been into statistics and urban development.

That's awesome man. I'm going to try out for the Dinos next season. I'm in the process of starting a new inclusive rugby club for Calgary. It'll be the first IGR (international gay rugby) team in Western Canada, the fourth in Canada, and 45th team in the world. We have about 15 gay guys signed up so far and about 10 straight guys. So it's looking pretty good.
 

UrbanWarrior

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You know what I just realized? Everyone calls Calgary the capital of sprawl in Canada, but both Edmonton and Ottawa are way more sprawly than Calgary. The best measure to look at for this is the population density of the urban area relative to the size of the urban area. Calgary's urban area is 586 km2, Edmonton's is 572km2 and Ottawa's is 502/km2, neither of them are over a million, while Calgary's is over 1.2 million. Calgary's urban population density is over 2100/km2, while both Edmonton and Ottawa's are in the low - mid 1800s/km2. Myth debunked.
 
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Oddball

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I never played any of those, I've just always been into statistics and urban development.

That's awesome man. I'm going to try out for the Dinos next season. I'm in the process of starting a new inclusive rugby club for Calgary. It'll be the first IGR (international gay rugby) team in Western Canada, the fourth in Canada, and 45th team in the world. We have about 15 gay guys signed up so far and about 10 straight guys. So it's looking pretty good.
Well, if you ever need to turn your love of stats into hatred for the Ottoman Empire you know where to look.

I'm a generation removed for the U of C Rugby team these days. It was a good time. They were good guys. I don't know if they're trying to be more competitive these days, but there weren't any official tryouts when I was playing. Partly because it was a club rather than a varsity sport and partly because we were a drinking team with a rugby problem.

Good luck to you and your boys on your inclusive rugby club too!

You know what I just realized? Everyone calls Calgary the capital of sprawl in Canada, but both Edmonton and Ottawa are way more sprawly than Calgary. The best measure to look at for this is the population density of the urban area relative to the size of the urban area. Calgary's urban area is 586 km2, Edmonton's is 572km2 and Ottawa's is 502/km2, neither of them are over a million, while Calgary's is over 1.2 million. Calgary's urban population density is over 2100/km2, while both Edmonton and Ottawa's are in the low - mid 1800s/km2. Myth debunked.
Edmonton and it's ridiculous 9,000 square kilometer CMA zone has always irked me. It over inflates the population figures and it some how never gets called out for sprawl. Nice work delving deeper on the city limits too.
 

Surrealplaces

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You know what I just realized? Everyone calls Calgary the capital of sprawl in Canada, but both Edmonton and Ottawa are way more sprawly than Calgary. The best measure to look at for this is the population density of the urban area relative to the size of the urban area. Calgary's urban area is 586 km2, Edmonton's is 572km2 and Ottawa's is 502/km2, neither of them are over a million, while Calgary's is over 1.2 million. Calgary's urban population density is over 2100/km2, while both Edmonton and Ottawa's are in the low - mid 1800s/km2. Myth debunked.
Interesting. By urban area, is that basically built up tracts?
 

UrbanWarrior

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Yeah, like Calgary's municipal geographic area is like 826 km2, but the built up or urban area is only 586 km2.



Edmonton and it's ridiculous 9,000 square kilometer CMA zone has always irked me. It over inflates the population figures and it some how never gets called out for sprawl. Nice work delving deeper on the city limits too.
It's true, it is inflated. But when Foothills M.D. is added to the Calgary CMA, our geographic area will be nearly as large as Edmonton's at 8747 km2, only about 700 km2 difference.
 
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AJX

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It's true, it is inflated. But when Foothills M.D. is added to the Calgary CMA, our geographic area will be nearly as large as Edmonton's at 8747 km2, only about 700 km2 difference.
It would make us almost the same as Ottawa too (which I think is around 9K sq km), but Calgary would add another 50k of people to the total pushing Calgary even further ahead. I wonder if Foothills MD will make it into next census. IIRC, Statscan will go by results of the 2016 census to determine if those areas count in Calgary's CMA for next census.
 

UrbanWarrior

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It would make us almost the same as Ottawa too (which I think is around 9K sq km), but Calgary would add another 50k of people to the total pushing Calgary even further ahead. I wonder if Foothills MD will make it into next census. IIRC, Statscan will go by results of the 2016 census to determine if those areas count in Calgary's CMA for next census.
It would actually be more like 70 - 80 000 extra currently, but by then could be around 100 000. The Ottawa-Gatineau CMA is 6287 km2.
 

Surrealplaces

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Yup, if added at time of census, would by an additional 71,393 people. With an average growth rate of 12% for all those census locations, could easily be over 80k next census.

Foothills MD 22,766
Okotoks 28,881
High River 13,584
Black Diamond 2,700
Turner Valley 2,559
Longview 307
Eden Valley 596

71,393
 

Surrealplaces

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I'm finding Red Deer interesting....with over 100K now, it should be a CMA next census correct? If they add in adjacent counties of Red Deer County and Lacombe County, Red Deer CMA would most likely be over 200k next census.

If those counties were added at time of 2016 census.

Red Deer 100,418

Red Deer County 19,541
Sylvan Lake 14,816
Jarvis Bay 213
Norgenwold 273
PenHold 3,277
Innisfail 7,847
Bowden 1,240
Delburne 892
Elnora 298

Lacombe County 10,343
Blackfalds 9,328
Lacombe 13,057
Alix 734
Clive 715
Gull Lake 177
Bentley 1,078
Eckville 1,125

84,954
 

Oddball

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I'm finding Red Deer interesting....with over 100K now, it should be a CMA next census correct? If they add in adjacent counties of Red Deer County and Lacombe County, Red Deer CMA would most likely be over 200k next census.

If those counties were added at time of 2016 census.

Red Deer 100,418

Red Deer County 19,541
Sylvan Lake 14,816
Jarvis Bay 213
Norgenwold 273
PenHold 3,277
Innisfail 7,847
Bowden 1,240
Delburne 892
Elnora 298

Lacombe County 10,343
Blackfalds 9,328
Lacombe 13,057
Alix 734
Clive 715
Gull Lake 177
Bentley 1,078
Eckville 1,125

84,954
We're right there with you on that SP. We were looking at those numbers the page before. To be honest, I'm not really sure why it didn't make it this time around. It must have been the minutia of the commuter definition that scrubbed it this go around. Since the simplified definition of a CMA is a metro area with a core of 50,000 and a population of 100,000, Red Deer will qualify all on it's own without the surrounding communities. I'm curious to see what what counties/municipalities they'd include. It would be pretty cool for it to hit the next census with a population over 200,000. That'd jump it up the rankings pretty swiftly. It would leap frog right past Kelowna.
 

Alex_YYC

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Great thread topic!

Hey, can anyone explain this whole deal of the statscan estimates being more accurate than the official census data? Also this whole deal of the undercounts?
 

UrbanWarrior

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Even if Red Deer is only the City of Red Deer when it is converted into a CMA in 2021, it will still be impressive in that is will be around 110 000 people by that time, while Nanaimo, Fredericton, and all the other CAs about to be turned into CMAs will likely still be under 105 000, and all of those CMAs have huge territories in order to get up to 100 000, Red Deer only has its city, 104 km2. By the 2026 census though, the Red Deer CMA geographic area will be re-evaluated to at least include all of Red Deer County and all of its cities/towns, which will put Red Deer at around 160 000 by that time (would be about 148 000 currently). It could take some time for all of Lacombe County to be included though.
 

Oddball

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Great thread topic!

Hey, can anyone explain this whole deal of the statscan estimates being more accurate than the official census data? Also this whole deal of the undercounts?
I hadn't heard about either of these? Who is saying that the estimates are more accurate? I'd like that to be the case because the Estimates show about a 1.3M more people nationally and much of that is in Alberta.
 

UrbanWarrior

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Great thread topic!

Hey, can anyone explain this whole deal of the statscan estimates being more accurate than the official census data? Also this whole deal of the undercounts?
I'm not sure about the difference in accuracy between the census and the estimates, but I do like the idea of Calgary being nearly 100 000 higher than what is reported in the census. As of June 1, 2015, Calgary was estimated at 1 440 000, while in the 2016 census, we were reported in at 1 393 000. So when the 2016 estimate comes out (should be within the month) we will likely be around 1 470 000, this of course still doesn't include Foothills MD, so the Calgary region would be approx. 1 550 000.
 

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