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2016 Census results.

Surrealplaces

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We're right there with you on that SP. We were looking at those numbers the page before. To be honest, I'm not really sure why it didn't make it this time around. It must have been the minutia of the commuter definition that scrubbed it this go around. Since the simplified definition of a CMA is a metro area with a core of 50,000 and a population of 100,000, Red Deer will qualify all on it's own without the surrounding communities. I'm curious to see what what counties/municipalities they'd include. It would be pretty cool for it to hit the next census with a population over 200,000. That'd jump it up the rankings pretty swiftly. It would leap frog right past Kelowna.
lol... I missed the post on page 1. You had already had it well covered Oddball.
 

BKha

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Even if Red Deer is only the City of Red Deer when it is converted into a CMA in 2021, it will still be impressive in that is will be around 110 000 people by that time, while Nanaimo, Fredericton, and all the other CAs about to be turned into CMAs will likely still be under 105 000, and all of those CMAs have huge territories in order to get up to 100 000, Red Deer only has its city, 104 km2. By the 2026 census though, the Red Deer CMA geographic area will be re-evaluated to at least include all of Red Deer County and all of its cities/towns, which will put Red Deer at around 160 000 by that time (would be about 148 000 currently). It could take some time for all of Lacombe County to be included though.
I imagine if Lacombe county doesn't get added, it probably would for the 2031 census. Hard to believe Alberta could possibly be in line for a CMA over 200K. And another one over 100K (Lethbridge) I always thought of Alberta a place with two large cities and bunch of towns.
 

Oddball

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I think a lot of people are used to thinking of it that way. And if we as residents of the province have a hard time adjusting our points of view, imagine how long it will take completely detached people in Ottawa and Toronto to come around. I had to refrain from going off on a tangent about how they think we're all red necks just now. Suffice to say, such opinion is unfounded, irksome and liable to produce foul language. :mad:

But back to the sweet sweet demographic information.

The way I see it, when it comes to our cities, there are 5 classes.
  • The three really large metros with esatblished international presences. All pop +2M. (i.e. Toronto, Montreal and Vancouver.)
  • The three medium metros and generally fast growing cities whose prominence on the national level is well established. All pop 1-2M. (i.e. Calgary, Ottawa and Edmonton)
  • The three smaller, but established metros of regional importance. All Pop 700K-1M (i.e. Quebec, Winnipeg & Hamilton)
The big nine are home to pretty much all of Canada's big businesses. They're home to all but one of Canada's pro sports teams (Except the Roughriders). They're home to the governments of the largest provinces (except BC). They have all of Canada's tallest and coolest buildings and almost off it's major events. They pretty much have an oligarchic stranglehold on Canada's public life and it's been that way for most people's life times. Below these nine we have the other cities of Canada.
  • The plethora of small usually provincial significance across the country. Pop 200K-600K (e.g. Victoria, Saskatoon, Windsor, Halifax, etc.)
  • The small easily over looked cities. Pop 100K-200K (e.g. Kelowna, Kingston, St. John's, etc.)
I think this 4th and 5th group is where most of the excitement is. London and K-W are now topping 500K. I don't think it will be long before they're in the position to challenge for mention in the 3rd group. I also hope that would mean more interesting construction projects and cultural venues. I also wonder how long before one of these "other" centres takes a run a pro team at some sort. The East division of the CFL needs another team afterall. :D Why stop at 10 teams even. Why not shoot for 12 or more.

I also like to see more of these 4th and 5th cities starting to pop up in the West. After Vancouver, Calgary, Edmonton and Winnipeg. People will probably think of Saskatoon and Regina then maybe they're remember Victoria exists. After that most people go pretty blank. Kelowa got CMA status a few years ago. Now there's Lethbridge. Nanimo, Kamloops and Red Deer seem to be just on the cusp. And it doesn't seem too crazy to imagine a place like Grand Prairie making the list within the next 15 years.

Pretty exciting times. :D
 

UrbanWarrior

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Alberta could feasibly have 5 CMAs by 2031 or sooner.

Alberta currently and in 2031...

Calgary: 1.4 million - 2 million (160 000 per census[avg] + the addition of Foothills MD at 90 000 people in 2026)
Edmonton: 1.3 million - 1.8 million
Red Deer: 185 000 - 220 000 (the addition of Lacombe and Red Deer Counties)
Lethbridge: 117 000 - 150 000
Grande Prairie: 102 000 - 130 000 (the addition of Grande Prairie County to the CA in census 2021, forcing its re-evaluation into a CMA for 2026)

Medicine Hat: 77 000 - 92 000

These are pretty fair projections, though the Calgary and Edmonton ones might be a bit generous unless we see some pretty substantial boom years between now and then.

Also, by comparison to these 2031 numbers, Ottawa will only be around 1.5 million by then (70 000 per census [which is higher than their norm] x 3 = 210 000, putting them at 1 533 000).
 

UrbanWarrior

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I don't think the RM of Wood Buffalo will be re-evaluated until the Urban Service Area (city) of Fort McMurray reaches 100 000.
 

Oddball

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Does anyone know why Fort Mac isn't its own city? I've always wondered.
I've tried to do a little digging (Google searching about), but not really come up with anything concrete. Usually all I find is some boilerplate stuff about how "specialized municipalities" allow "urban and rural communities to coexist under a single government." Maybe there's a archived Herald or Journal article out there circa 1995 discussing in greater detail just as to why Fort Mac became part of the Wood Buffalo RMA. I think in the case of Fort Mac, it's probably reasonable to assume that it's about coordinating for oilsands development. Rather than having a bunch of squabbling and competing councils with the power to make confounding or contradictory by-laws, why not put it all under one body? That's my guess at any rate.

The other SMs are a little different but I think you can see similar trends. Crowsnest Pass is another SM, and it's pretty logical to assume that it's about coordinating a string of relatively small, but closely interrelated communities. People in living Coleman probably have very similar concerns to people living in Blairmore. Same goes for Strathcona County, where it's probably all about putting the concerns of people living within Edmonton's close orbit all in one forum. I could easily see Cochrane being in a merge municipality with Bear's Paw for similar reasons.

On top of common decision making powers, it probably has a lot to do with service delivery as well.

Kind of as a tangent, it wonder if they'd every consider breaking up and remaking the MDs of Rockey View and Foothills? It would make things easier for including Foothills in the Calgary CMA at the very least.
 
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UrbanWarrior

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According to that Global News map thing, downtown Calgary has grown from 15,439 in 2011 to 17,207 in 2016. That's not too bad. However, the downtown borders are slightly skewed in that map. In 2016 in the municipal census, the 5 combined downtown neighbourhoods had a population of 18,114, up from 16,281 in the 2011 municipal census.

At this rate, downtown will be basically 20,000 by 2021. With the Beltline around 25,000 around the same time.

Currently in the five downtown neighbourhoods, we have a combined ~2000 units under construction. That does not include the 500 in Arris (even though it is "technically" UC at this time). It also doesn't consider towers that are likely to be completed by 2021 such as the Hat on 7th Avenue (West End - 66 units), Vibe (East Village - ~100 units), N3 Phase 2 (East Village - 200 units), the Concord East Tower (Eau Claire - 120 units), and Avenue West Tower (West End - 200 units). So that's another nearly 1200 units likely to go through between now and then.
 
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UrbanWarrior

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The official name of the East Village is Downtown East Village, so yes it's part of downtown. Along with West End, CBD, Eau Claire, and Chinatown. Even with all of that, our downtown's geographic area is still significantly smaller than Edmonton's, by like 0.5 km2, somehow.
 

UrbanWarrior

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That's not really how it works. They already are their own neighbourhoods, there's nowhere for them to break off to. Downtown will only increase in size as it increases in importance. The only reason that Beltline isn't yet a part of downtown is because no city official has yet classified it as such. That will change eventually.
 

Always_Biking

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Gotcha. So downtown commercial core is an actual neighborhood, but 'downtown' is just a name for the area.
 

UrbanWarrior

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Yes, it's like how Toronto has their CBD, but their downtown is actually a huge area bordered by Bathurst to the West, Lake Ontario to the South, Don River to the East, and Bloor Street to the North. This area would be several times the size of what our downtown would be even with the Beltline included.
 
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