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Urban Development and Proposals Discussion

Habanero

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Even if we were to simply include Foothills MD today, we would be pretty close to 1.6M.
As of 2018 Calgary estimated CMA population was 1,486,050 and adding Foothills would be about another 80K, so today in 2019 we should easily be at 1.6 million people. It's one of the rare times an article actually got the population right.
 

Habanero

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Even if we were to simply include Foothills MD today, we would be pretty close to 1.6M.
As of 2018 Calgary estimated CMA population was 1,486,050 and adding Foothills would be about another 80K, so today in 2019 we should easily be at 1.6 million people. It's one of the rare times an article actually got the population right.
 

heightjunkie

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a little OT, but it excites me to see that even with a bit of economic depression, Calgary and region (even Edmonton!) have continued to grow pretty substantially population wise. A calgary region with 2+million opens up more interesting possibilities. When both Edmonton and Calgary hit 2 million I hope we see the high speed rail topic taken seriously again.
 

DougB

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a little OT, but it excites me to see that even with a bit of economic depression, Calgary and region (even Edmonton!) have continued to grow pretty substantially population wise. A calgary region with 2+million opens up more interesting possibilities. When both Edmonton and Calgary hit 2 million I hope we see the high speed rail topic taken seriously again.
Calgary is still riding boomtown demographics. The large number of 20 and 30 somethings who arrived during the boom are having kids. I suspect population growth will slow dramatically if the downturn continues.
 

Travisty

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Calgary is still riding boomtown demographics. The large number of 20 and 30 somethings who arrived during the boom are having kids. I suspect population growth will slow dramatically if the downturn continues.
Calgary will continue to have above a 10% growth rate which is one of the highest rates for metros on the continent. Cities like Calgary, Edmonton, Winnipeg, Saskatoon, continue to grow at a rapid pace because of the costs of living, taxes, etc. compared to Toronto and Vancouver. Affordable housing is becoming an issue, and right now Calgary is relatively cheap.
 
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Surrealplaces

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There are two basic facts that overrule the status of the O+G industry: (1) Canada’s population is growing, (2) Canada’s population is becoming is becoming increasingly concentrated in large cities. This all but guarantees Calgary’s continual growth.
Yup. That and strong international migration to the 6 largest cities, with Calgary being strong relative to Ottawa, Edmonton.
 

UrbanWarrior

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Not really development related, but I noticed the trees on top of N3 are doing really well. Pleasantly surprised :)
 

heightjunkie

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Calgary is still riding boomtown demographics. The large number of 20 and 30 somethings who arrived during the boom are having kids. I suspect population growth will slow dramatically if the downturn continues.
While I don't disagree that there still is some leftover "boom-juice" driving our population growth, I agree with some of the other posters that draw from international migration and urbanization trends. It doesn't seem like positive job growth is the central factor to this region's population growth anymore, rather it has become one of a group of 3-5 factors including affordability and quality of life that have continued to drive our region's strong growth relative to peers. Those factors recently seem to be improving too: housing price is going down right now in Alberta, quality of life seems to still be tops in Alberta, international migration is still publicly accepted by and large here (unlike Quebec or even parts of Ontario), and our spirits seem to be relatively high.

Regarding economic growth, our economy is continuing to decouple (albeit slowly) from the O & G sector. A lot of people are acting like o & G are a thing of the past too- and sure, peak oil prices are likely not going to be seen again. But there are geopolitical influences that could change that scenario pretty rapidly: I would never like to see it, but a global proxy war staked primarily between SA and Iran would have a dramatic effect on global oil prices, and we could see a renewed waive of private investment in the oilsands. The key here will be actually learning from our mistakes the last few boom cycles and using that money properly instead of squandering it. That is definitely a hurdle. Creating new industries around well reclamation, extraction of elements like lithium from oil field brines, and geothermal energy are critical to reusing existing expertise and training while pivoting for the new economic reality.
 

CBBarnett

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While I don't disagree that there still is some leftover "boom-juice" driving our population growth, I agree with some of the other posters that draw from international migration and urbanization trends. It doesn't seem like positive job growth is the central factor to this region's population growth anymore, rather it has become one of a group of 3-5 factors including affordability and quality of life that have continued to drive our region's strong growth relative to peers. Those factors recently seem to be improving too: housing price is going down right now in Alberta, quality of life seems to still be tops in Alberta, international migration is still publicly accepted by and large here (unlike Quebec or even parts of Ontario), and our spirits seem to be relatively high.

Regarding economic growth, our economy is continuing to decouple (albeit slowly) from the O & G sector. A lot of people are acting like o & G are a thing of the past too- and sure, peak oil prices are likely not going to be seen again. But there are geopolitical influences that could change that scenario pretty rapidly: I would never like to see it, but a global proxy war staked primarily between SA and Iran would have a dramatic effect on global oil prices, and we could see a renewed waive of private investment in the oilsands. The key here will be actually learning from our mistakes the last few boom cycles and using that money properly instead of squandering it. That is definitely a hurdle. Creating new industries around well reclamation, extraction of elements like lithium from oil field brines, and geothermal energy are critical to reusing existing expertise and training while pivoting for the new economic reality.
The one misconception is that Calgary does indeed have positive job growth link. Outside the immediate recession itself (late 2015 - end of 2016) job growth has continued in Calgary at a respectable pace, easily competitive within the big metros over the past 5 years. What's missing is the growth in O&G and in the higher income jobs as a result. Limited higher-wage job growth? You know what that sounds like - every other city in Canada experiencing moderate growth.

Trevor Tombe, an economist folks should follow if they are interested in Calgary/Alberta economic analysis, has loads of information on the subject. See the graph he put together for a useful characterization of wage growth in Alberta v. Canada. The weird part was 2010 - 2014, not 2015 - present where we returned to the Canadian average.Source:


Remember, this graph still only speaks to wage growth. Actual wages in Calgary remain substantially higher in Calgary than other Canadian metros. We are growing at a slower - but still average - rate but from a higher base.

Alberta's decades-old capture by the O&G sector on all layers of political debate is increasingly out of touch of the reality of what's happening in the city. Calgary is returning to a normal city level of growth, not falling off a cliff. That's a single-industry view point, while important and with real impacts on the tax and commercial office demand situation, is dwarfed by the role that demographics and urbanization play in urban development in Calgary.
 
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retrofiturbanism

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Calgary will continue to have above a 10% growth rate which is one of the highest rates for metros on the continent. Cities like Calgary, Edmonton, Winnipeg, Saskatoon, continue to grow at a rapid pace because of the costs of living, taxes, etc. compared to Toronto and Vancouver. Affordable housing is becoming an issue, and right now Calgary is relatively cheap.
We have never had, nor will ever have a 10% growth rate. The most we have seen in the last 2 decades was 3.73% in 2006. The highest growth rate globally was 3.83% in South Sudan in 2018. 10% growth is off the charts and almost no city has seen growth of that level in a single year, let alone sustained over a long period of time.
 

Travisty

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We have never had, nor will ever have a 10% growth rate. The most we have seen in the last 2 decades was 3.73% in 2006. The highest growth rate globally was 3.83% in South Sudan in 2018. 10% growth is off the charts and almost no city has seen growth of that level in a single year, let alone sustained over a long period of time.
Defining the growth rate of >10% in this context, is off the Canadian census (5 years)
 

UrbanWarrior

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Yeah, no one said yearly, and no one in their right mind should assume it was meant yearly, since it's pretty much impossible save for a catastrophic migration.
 

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