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Urban Development and Proposals Discussion

I was looking at the Rivers District Plan but didn't quite get if they are planning any new schools for the future families that will have kids grow up in Condo's. Has anyone seen this?
 
I'm not sure a that an increase in births/children is expected in the Rivers District or Beltline. At least not a tangible increase. I don't think the plan for young people moving to the inner city is to settle down and eventually have kids there. I may be wrong but I don't think that is the future demographic. It is 'empty-nesters' and 'yuppies'.
 
Well if you don't plan for it with amenities like schools, families definitely won't locate in the core. Which is a shame, as someone who is raising a toddler in the core, we think it is great. However, my wife has already given me the heads up that if anything is going to make us move, it will be the availability of school access for our son in a few years.
 
Found these designs for the old Library on line. They're from students at the UofC, and not a real proposal, but as crazy as they are, I would like something like this.

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D1u_GubVAAAHQTNa.jpg
 
MichaelS said:
Well if you don't plan for it with amenities like schools, families definitely won't locate in the core. Which is a shame, as someone who is raising a toddler in the core, we think it is great. However, my wife has already given me the heads up that if anything is going to make us move, it will be the availability of school access for our son in a few years.
Click to expand...
Years ago, there were several grade schools in the inner city but when the population migrated to the suburbs, those schools were either demolished or re-purposed. I would be very surprised if building new schools is in the long range plan for Beltline/Rivers District. Maybe re-opening a couple.
 
A quick look at 2001 and 2016 Census data for Beltline + DT + EV + West End + Eau Claire + Chinatown:

0 to 4 year olds5 to 14 year olds15 to 19 year oldsOverall Population
200145558585028140
2016190091064540440
% change318%56%-24%44%

Suggests a few trends worth considering:
  • Overall more school-aged children than 15 years ago, but largest growth is in the pre-school category
  • Population growth in the city centre area has been largely in the 25 - 34 year old category, which tends to produce the lions share of babies
  • The order has reverse in most-prevalent school-aged population bracket in the city centre:
    • 2001: high school (1), junior/elementary (2), pre-school (3)
    • 2016: pre-school (1), junior/elementary (2), high school (3)
A hypothesis: the centre city in 2016 is a more acceptable/easier to have and raise a baby in 2016 compared to 2001. There are likely a combination of inter-related factors: the growth in child-bearing bearing population (obviously), expensiveness/distance of affordable SFH, preference/availability of higher quality urban housing, "urban lifestyle" cultural preference changes that don't always require a backyard, improved family-friendly amenities and policy (e.g. park upgrades, safety, lighting improvements).

What does this table doesn't tell us is what will happen to family's like MichaelS' (on aggregate). Will all those 0 to 4 year olds stay in the city centre or will living space/school capacity push more to other areas? It is reasonable to expect migration trends to the burbs to continue as well as more to stay - on account there simply are more 0 to 4 year olds. Bigger picture: if the school-aged population continues to grow, how long until we see a school developed in response to capacity issues? Enter politics, funding and the messy world of school site selection....

In another 15 years what will this distribution look like? Will the high-school population start growing again? Will the urban lifestyle revolution boom, peak or decline? Will a new school be built? Will that amenity trigger more families to stay? Population growth is expected to continue but the age cohorts are more tricky to predict.

Hope that can enrich the conversation with a little taste of Census data :)
 
CBBarnett said:
A quick look at 2001 and 2016 Census data for Beltline + DT + EV + West End + Eau Claire + Chinatown:

0 to 4 year olds5 to 14 year olds15 to 19 year oldsOverall Population
200145558585028140
2016190091064540440
% change318%56%-24%44%

Suggests a few trends worth considering:
  • Overall more school-aged children than 15 years ago, but largest growth is in the pre-school category
  • Population growth in the city centre area has been largely in the 25 - 34 year old category, which tends to produce the lions share of babies
  • The order has reverse in most-prevalent school-aged population bracket in the city centre:
    • 2001: high school (1), junior/elementary (2), pre-school (3)
    • 2016: pre-school (1), junior/elementary (2), high school (3)
A hypothesis: the centre city in 2016 is a more acceptable/easier to have and raise a baby in 2016 compared to 2001. There are likely a combination of inter-related factors: the growth in child-bearing bearing population (obviously), expensiveness/distance of affordable SFH, preference/availability of higher quality urban housing, "urban lifestyle" cultural preference changes that don't always require a backyard, improved family-friendly amenities and policy (e.g. park upgrades, safety, lighting improvements).

What does this table doesn't tell us is what will happen to family's like MichaelS' (on aggregate). Will all those 0 to 4 year olds stay in the city centre or will living space/school capacity push more to other areas? It is reasonable to expect migration trends to the burbs to continue as well as more to stay - on account there simply are more 0 to 4 year olds. Bigger picture: if the school-aged population continues to grow, how long until we see a school developed in response to capacity issues? Enter politics, funding and the messy world of school site selection....

In another 15 years what will this distribution look like? Will the high-school population start growing again? Will the urban lifestyle revolution boom, peak or decline? Will a new school be built? Will that amenity trigger more families to stay? Population growth is expected to continue but the age cohorts are more tricky to predict.

Hope that can enrich the conversation with a little taste of Census data :)
Click to expand...

As someone who works in the education system, I can guarantee that no new inner city schools are going to be built in the next 25 years. Governments build schools at a glacial pace. Proactively responding to demographic numbers would be shocking. Look at all the suburban schools that are at capacity with a waitlist immediately after opening.

The inner city does have some interesting things going for it school wise. There is a huge rise in alternative programs (french immersion, spanish bilingual, science, arts based, TLC) and these tend to be located in the inner city because of extra space in older schools. The demand for these spaces exceeds capacity. The CBE awards these spaces based students living in the neighborhoods first before opening it up to other neighborhoods. Also, the high school that every student wants to go to is Western (because it is one of the most academic public schools in Alberta). It is extremely difficult to get into Western without an address in its catchment area. Many students I have taught have had parents rent an apartment downtown (they won't move in), just for the address and the ability to get into Western.
 
dazzlingdave88 said:
As someone who works in the education system, I can guarantee that no new inner city schools are going to be built in the next 25 years. Governments build schools at a glacial pace. Proactively responding to demographic numbers would be shocking. Look at all the suburban schools that are at capacity with a waitlist immediately after opening.

The inner city does have some interesting things going for it school wise. There is a huge rise in alternative programs (french immersion, spanish bilingual, science, arts based, TLC) and these tend to be located in the inner city because of extra space in older schools. The demand for these spaces exceeds capacity. The CBE awards these spaces based students living in the neighborhoods first before opening it up to other neighborhoods. Also, the high school that every student wants to go to is Western (because it is one of the most academic public schools in Alberta). It is extremely difficult to get into Western without an address in its catchment area. Many students I have taught have had parents rent an apartment downtown (they won't move in), just for the address and the ability to get into Western.
Click to expand...
Very interesting, thanks for the perspective from the inside. It's a funny game with a huge amount of political, procurement and systemic pressures influencing the outcome - let alone the underlying uncertainly in predicting around demographic changes in the first place. It's a tough job.

For example, King Edward School in South Calgary (now that C-Space arts centre) closed in 2001 due to enrollment declines, any decision-maker would have little to foreshadowing of the coming Altadore-Marda Loop - South Calgary urbanization/baby boom as all populations segments were stagnate and declining and at that point (and had been for 40 years). Urban re-intensification was just in it's infancy. Even if you had hints that would suggest planning school capacity for a coming boom, resources limitations and far more certain signals would be coming from the burbs and their rapid growth. Now 20 years later, there are thousands of more children in the area competing for space at the few schools remaining and/or heading for private/special programs.

Reminds me of this Toronto example at City Place - one of the "ground zero" communities of Toronto's condo/reurbanization boom. The area is getting a public and catholic school to open in 2020, after 20 years and 80,000 - 120,000 population growth over that time in the local area ( it's a ballpark estimate, depending on how you define local area). The vast majority of this growth has been in young adult category with less school-aged population growth and there is a casual relationship at play here (few children = few schools = fewer children....etc.), but it demonstrates the enormous lag in school building responding to demographics, which in itself helps perpetuate the cycle of moving to where schools already exist. http://urbantoronto.ca/news/2018/08/new-schools-and-community-centre-growing-cityplace
 
I saw a sign for a proposed mid rise development on 43 ave and macleod trail, west side. Was it mentioned here before?
 
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