News   Apr 03, 2020
 5.8K     1 
News   Apr 02, 2020
 7.5K     3 
News   Apr 02, 2020
 4.4K     0 

Statscan numbers

Housing starts for the year 2024
CitySFHsemirowapartmenttotal
Toronto472330145322816237718
Vancouver217688417702328228112
Calgary7100225235121150524369
Edmonton697612042639756518834
Montreal11072584841572117570
Ottawa/Gatineau19162432280711011549
Its those row/semi numbers that are most impressive to me. We got a really good thing going on housing diversity on the low-end of the density scale.

I am shocked that Toronto can be building any SFH at all - where? They don't have any/much land left, are these all redevelopments maybe?
 
Its those row/semi numbers that are most impressive to me. We got a really good thing going on housing diversity on the low-end of the density scale.

I am shocked that Toronto can be building any SFH at all - where? They don't have any/much land left, are these all redevelopments maybe?
100% agree. I like the diversity of our housing starts, it's pretty well balanced, and I wouldn't be surprised if the number of rowhome units increases by more than 50% or even doubles over 2025.

I wonder whether some of these new builds that look like rowhomes are getting classified as rowhomes or apartments.
For example this 50 unit development looks like it could be either.
1737064579269.png
 
Calgary CMA grew by a little over 100,000 between 2023 and 2024 to a population of 1,778,881 (from 1,678,702)
And that number is without the respective populations of Okotoks, High River, Diamond Valley, Foothills County and Strathmore. Add those in- it's probably close to 1.85M...

Do you guys think that Stats Can ever add those to the official CMA? If so, then when?
 
And that number is without the respective populations of Okotoks, High River, Diamond Valley, Foothills County and Strathmore. Add those in- it's probably close to 1.85M...

Do you guys think that Stats Can ever add those to the official CMA? If so, then when?
I think @whatchyyc or @ByeByeBaby had a cool graphic on this a while back? If I recall, the answer is not likely for a while.

The reason is commuter flows - you need to have 50% of your workforce commuting to the adjacent CMA's core to be added to the geography. Okotoks and High River don't and actually haven't been trending that way, on account of more local jobs, in particular the Cargill plant that employs (relative to the population) a ton of people. The result was a very high commuter share to Calgary, but not trending towards 50%.

To get above 50% to commute to Calgary, implementing a competitive commuter rail system might work, or a sprawling housing boom in High River and Okotoks that doesn't feature much employment might be enough. Both those things would take a long while though.

Perhaps someone smarter or with a better memory can fact check me on this.
 
I think @whatchyyc or @ByeByeBaby had a cool graphic on this a while back? If I recall, the answer is not likely for a while.

The reason is commuter flows - you need to have 50% of your workforce commuting to the adjacent CMA's core to be added to the geography. Okotoks and High River don't and actually haven't been trending that way, on account of more local jobs, in particular the Cargill plant that employs (relative to the population) a ton of people. The result was a very high commuter share to Calgary, but not trending towards 50%.

To get above 50% to commute to Calgary, implementing a competitive commuter rail system might work, or a sprawling housing boom in High River and Okotoks that doesn't feature much employment might be enough. Both those things would take a long while though.

Perhaps someone smarter or with a better memory can fact check me on this.
Thanks for the explanation! Maybe in a few decades then... we'll see
 
Its those row/semi numbers that are most impressive to me. We got a really good thing going on housing diversity on the low-end of the density scale.

I am shocked that Toronto can be building any SFH at all - where? They don't have any/much land left, are these all redevelopments maybe?
There's still plenty of SFH going up in places like Markham, Vaughan, Milton and Halton Hills that are still part of the CMA.
 
And that number is without the respective populations of Okotoks, High River, Diamond Valley, Foothills County and Strathmore. Add those in- it's probably close to 1.85M...

Do you guys think that Stats Can ever add those to the official CMA? If so, then when?
I estimate 81,000 if you add up Foothills County and the 3 the municipalities within of Okotoks, High River and Diamond Valley. Strathmore should be around 15,000 right now, but TBH I think it's a little far to be included in our urban area (although if we were a US city, it almost certainly would be). Most US CMA's are at least 5,000 sq miles, often closer to 10,000 and for context the Calgary CMA covers about 1900 sq miles I believe. It's not farfetched to state that Calgary is bigger than many of the 2 million + US metros if those places used a more reasonable definition of their metropolitan area. The flip side of that, is even if Calgary's CMA was 10,000 sq mi, we'd maybe hit 2 million, because the population density of AB outside the 2 big cities is so low.

Other CMA's have increased in area over the years (I think Ottawa did recently), so it's not outside the realm of possibility but as CBBarnett indicated, we'd have to meet certain Statscan criteria.
 
The other interesting trend is that we are on track to, eventually, surpass Montreal as the 2nd largest city by municipal population. I see they have put some runway between us as they are now at 1.9 million but certainly possible, if not probable, in the next couple of decades.
 
This also puts Calgary ahead of Philadelphia city and close to Phoenix
We can't really do city comparisons to the US, they have much smaller "cities" for property tax and municipal funding reasons. For example, Boston is at 600k because they don't count Cambridge even though it's two subway stops from downtown Boston.
 
We can't really do city comparisons to the US, they have much smaller "cities" for property tax and municipal funding reasons. For example, Boston is at 600k because they don't count Cambridge even though it's two subway stops from downtown Boston.
US cities are all over the map, even moreso than Canada, when it comes to municipal boundaries. Cities like Jacksonville, Indianapolis and Nashville consolidated their entire counties into their municipality decades ago, giving them relatively large populations of nearly a million but very low population densities (much lower than Calgary). Cities like Boston, Washington DC, Miami or Atlanta are at the other end of that scale with small municipal populations at the core of very large urban areas. Some of these cities have only 10% of their metro population within the city limits.

The closest US comparison is probably San Antonio, with about the same municipal population as Calgary. While its official metro population is a few hundred thousand larger, that's over nearly 8000 sq miles and their actual "urban" population of only 1.88 million is comparable to ours.
 
Last edited:

Back
Top