JWhite
Active Member
Some more stats. Natural increases for the big six metros.
Tor 19,189
Cgy 7,578
Mtl 5,747
Edm 5,168
Van 4,897
Ott-Gat 2,394
Tor 19,189
Cgy 7,578
Mtl 5,747
Edm 5,168
Van 4,897
Ott-Gat 2,394
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Statscan numbers
- Thread starter kora
- Start date
JWhite
Active Member
And a few more stats relating to the percentage of non-permanent residents in the growth numbers.
Looking at the big 6 metros, it looks like Cgy/Edm/Ott are in a similar situation with around 44% of the growth coming from non-permanent residents.
The big 3 are interesting with Montreal being as high as 90% of the growth coming from non-perm residents. Tor and Van are also up there.
Mtl 90%
Van 80%
Tor 79%
Cgy 44%
Edm 43%
Ott 43 %
I wonder if this explains Montreal's strong population growth while having low housing starts over the past two years?
Looking at the big 6 metros, it looks like Cgy/Edm/Ott are in a similar situation with around 44% of the growth coming from non-permanent residents.
The big 3 are interesting with Montreal being as high as 90% of the growth coming from non-perm residents. Tor and Van are also up there.
Mtl 90%
Van 80%
Tor 79%
Cgy 44%
Edm 43%
Ott 43 %
I wonder if this explains Montreal's strong population growth while having low housing starts over the past two years?
trtcttc
Active Member
By % of population, Cgy and Edm lead the pack at 0.43% and 0.32%. Toronto is third at 0.27% and MTL lowest at 0.13%. I assume this is likely associated with the population age, Cgy is much younger than Mtl or Ott, but I'm curious how cost of living factors in. It's mentioned on the news and logically it makes sense that it's hard to have kids when rent is $3000+ and a house is $3M
I think affordability has always been a factor for families. Calgary's always had decent migration gains in the 30 something age groups. Even a few years back when there was a big concern over Calgary losing young people, we were still gaining in the 25-39 age group.
From an anecdotal experience, everyone I know personally who has m oved here from Toronto or Vancouver has kids, and I know affordability has been part of it.
Patrick.1980
Active Member
I find these stats very interesting, they tell me Toronto, Vancouver, and especially Montreal are headed for population slowdowns and maybe even population loss.
I know not all of the non-permanent residents will leave within the next few years, but 90% of your population growth made up of non-permanent residence is a lot, I wouldn’t even be surprised if Montreal lost population at some point over the next two to three years.
I'm kind of thinking the same thing too, Montreal especially. The last two years, they've had a population growth of 241K and 209K of those are non-permanent residents.
jhappy77
Active Member
Urban Areas (USA): Urban Areas in States - Population Statistics, Charts and Map
Urban Areas (USA): States in Urban Areas with population statistics, charts and maps.
There's a trove of midsize American cities that Calgary could feasibly outpace over the next 1-2 decades to become a top 20 city in US/Canada. Like Kansas City, Pittsburgh, Cleveland, St. Louis, Orlando, Baltimore, Austin, Las Vegas.
DougB
Senior Member
Probably not Orlando, Vegas or AustinUrban Areas (USA): Urban Areas in States - Population Statistics, Charts and Map
Urban Areas (USA): States in Urban Areas with population statistics, charts and maps.citypopulation.de
There's a trove of midsize American cities that Calgary could feasibly outpace over the next 1-2 decades to become a top 20 city in US/Canada. Like Kansas City, Pittsburgh, Cleveland, St. Louis, Orlando, Baltimore, Austin, Las Vegas.
Albertasaurus
Active Member
Another "wild card" for Montreal is if the PQ win and as a result the prospect of sovereignty rears its head again, that will likely contribute to population (and economic) decline.
trtcttc
Active Member
And Montreal already has a tougher time getting inter-provincial migration because of language despite its lower housing costs.
Alex_YYC
Senior Member
According to the numbers Montreal has lost people the last 2 years, both interprovincially and intraprovincially. The only thing keeping it growing is the huge number of non-perm residents.
Albertasaurus
Active Member
Roaring Flames
Senior Member
It's a herald article: https://calgaryherald.com/news/local-news/calgary-economy-forecast-thrive-2025
A feel good article, the only thing I have mixed emotions about is that a lot of the success is tied to oil. I don't want oil to crash, but I've been enjoying the trend of oil slowly downsizing while other industries, pick up the slack.
CalgaryTiger
Senior Member
I keyed in on these quotes:
housing starts should fall to 17,200 this year from 23,300 in 2024.
That figure should fall steadily throughout the coming years, hitting about 16,300 units in 2029, states the report.
That slowdown is reflected in the increasing number of unsold, unoccupied homes, which climbed to 1,300 last month compared to 830 in December 2023.
“There’s a growing backlog of completed, unoccupied units being driven by the apartment market,” said Wiebe.
That slower growth, tamped down by a slackening population influx, is something that’ll likely be welcomed by Calgarians who will still be enjoying a robust economy, said Wiebe.
They're forecasting much less units being built in the years to come, there are a lot under construction right now so I guess they're saying that spike won't last. As it pointed out this still depends on what oil does. Even with the tariff I still think Canadian oil ships, I assume the export tariff that has been floated as threat will only come into affect as a last resort. In that sense it shouldn't last long and shouldn't affect production but the man with the orange makeup is unpredictable...
housing starts should fall to 17,200 this year from 23,300 in 2024.
That figure should fall steadily throughout the coming years, hitting about 16,300 units in 2029, states the report.
That slowdown is reflected in the increasing number of unsold, unoccupied homes, which climbed to 1,300 last month compared to 830 in December 2023.
“There’s a growing backlog of completed, unoccupied units being driven by the apartment market,” said Wiebe.
That slower growth, tamped down by a slackening population influx, is something that’ll likely be welcomed by Calgarians who will still be enjoying a robust economy, said Wiebe.
They're forecasting much less units being built in the years to come, there are a lot under construction right now so I guess they're saying that spike won't last. As it pointed out this still depends on what oil does. Even with the tariff I still think Canadian oil ships, I assume the export tariff that has been floated as threat will only come into affect as a last resort. In that sense it shouldn't last long and shouldn't affect production but the man with the orange makeup is unpredictable...