Statscan numbers

[darwink]

I don’t know exactly what the reasons are for Calgary’s success but the predictions certainly didn’t pan out.

Agglomeration economies for certain industries is one (oil and gas being resilient in Calgary vs Ottawa losing the spot of preeminence to Waterloo). The common view in the early 80s was not that peak oil was coming, but that it was here, and oil was going to be rare very soon.

I think we can't discount the benefits of Banff providing a baseline in O&D for the airport, and whether connected directly or not, the spinoffs from having PWA then Canadian, then WestJet HQ'd in Calgary. Having more flights, and more diverse destinations helps aggregate all sorts of different HQs and branch operations which provide services along the network.

 

[Surrealplaces]

Agglomeration economies for certain industries is one (oil and gas being resilient in Calgary vs Ottawa losing the spot of preeminence to Waterloo). The common view in the early 80s was not that peak oil was coming, but that it was here, and oil was going to be rare very soon.

I think we can't discount the benefits of Banff providing a baseline in O&D for the airport, and whether connected directly or not, the spinoffs from having PWA then Canadian, then WestJet HQ'd in Calgary. Having more flights, and more diverse destinations helps aggregate all sorts of different HQs and branch operations which provide services along the network.

Agree 100% about geography being a big part of it. Banff playing a big role, and one could also point to Calgary's location in the prairies as important as well. Back as the mid 90's I remember Calgary starting to take over as the distribution hub for the prairies. Part of it due to our location closer to the US border, part due to the superior airport (which owes some thanks to Banff), part also due to CN having better access to Calgary, than CP had to Edmonton. I remember clients I dealt with downsizing their distribution operations in Edmonton and Winnipeg and increasing their Calgary operations. Today Calgary is the undisputed distribution centre for Western Canada, and it's been a big part of the growth the last 30 years.

Oil and Gas and other head offices being centered here, due in part to geography advantages, has also led to a larger skilled labour workforce, which in turn has helped Calgary continue to attract head offices for non-oil and gas companies.

If I had point to the single biggest cause for Calgary's success I would point to geography.

 

[JTron]

^ if my memory serves me correctly, CP has tracks going into Edmonton.

 

[Surrealplaces]

^ if my memory serves me correctly, CP has tracks going into Edmonton.

They do, but a smaller freight/intermodal yard than CN has here. CN has been making Calgary a higher profile location than it used to be for them. One of their VPs called Calgary the 'Distribution capital of the west', so not too surprising they've been focusing a lot on Calgary these days.

 

[Cowtown]

I remember all through the 80s my brother-in-law (who was from Edmonton) was constantly saying that Calgary was going to sputter, as he called it, while Ottawa and Edmonton would be the cities of the future because they were government cities with bigger universities.

Hopefully he’s still around so you can rub it in

 

[DougB]

Agree 100% about geography being a big part of it. Banff playing a big role, and one could also point to Calgary's location in the prairies as important as well. Back as the mid 90's I remember Calgary starting to take over as the distribution hub for the prairies. Part of it due to our location closer to the US border, part due to the superior airport (which owes some thanks to Banff), part also due to CN having better access to Calgary, than CP had to Edmonton. I remember clients I dealt with downsizing their distribution operations in Edmonton and Winnipeg and increasing their Calgary operations. Today Calgary is the undisputed distribution centre for Western Canada, and it's been a big part of the growth the last 30 years.

Oil and Gas and other head offices being centered here, due in part to geography advantages, has also led to a larger skilled labour workforce, which in turn has helped Calgary continue to attract head offices for non-oil and gas companies.

If I had point to the single biggest cause for Calgary's success I would point to geography.

Calgary has the worst geography of any large city in Canada as it is not located at a natural break-in-bulk point. The only other sizeable Canada cities not located as such are Kelowna and Regina. A break-in-bulk point is a place where goods are transferred from one mode of transport to another. Edmonton is located near the shortest distance between the Saskatchewan and Athabasca river basins, making it an obvious location for fur trading. Vancouver has a natural harbor. Montreal is the furthest upstream ships could sail without encountering rapids (since bypassed). Calgary overcame its disadvantaged geography to build a break-in-bulk point by achieving critical mass. Such cities are very rare, and mostly American: Atlanta, Charlottle, Dallas, Denver, Phoenix and Las Vegas. Los Angeles is the best example of a self invented city as its only geographic asset is having the greatest flat, developable land on the rugged west coast. Through self invention it was able to attract enough resources to build out an artificial harbor, rail connections, aqueducts and freeways which in turn attracted even more resources. Like its American counterparts, Calgary succeeded by attracting dreamers, schemers and hucksters like RB Bennett and James Lougheed who created economic opportunities through their own will.

 

[DougB]

Interestingly, when you look back at 1981, Edmonton and Ottawa were the metros that were growing, while Calgary, which was heavily tied to oil was struggling at that time.
I remember all through the 80s my brother-in-law (who was from Edmonton) was constantly saying that Calgary was going to sputter, as he called it, while Ottawa and Edmonton would be the cities of the future because they were government cities with bigger universities.

I suppose back then what he was saying was an educated guess that made sense at the time
In the early 80’s Calgary was heavily tied to oil and gas and the U of C was almost half the size of the university of Alberta, and was probably half the size of the two main Ottawa universities.
I don’t know exactly what the reasons are for Calgary’s success but the predictions certainly didn’t pan out.

...and Calgary was supposedly finished in the 2020's due to devastating self-inflicted droughts, energy transition and failure to align with Laurentian political direction

 

[Albertasaurus]

To Doug's point, I take great pride in Calgary's resilience. While I've lived here we've had the flood, Snowtember, hail storms, droughts, several downturns (including the brutal 2015-2021 one), the dramatic reshaping of the global energy industry, political turmoil, the recent pipe issue, and a bunch more that I'm probably forgetting. I feel like Calgary has come out of each of these challenges stronger for it, and this city's best days are still ahead.

 

[zagox]

Calgary has the worst geography of any large city in Canada as it is not located at a natural break-in-bulk point. The only other sizeable Canada cities not located as such are Kelowna and Regina. A break-in-bulk point is a place where goods are transferred from one mode of transport to another. Edmonton is located near the shortest distance between the Saskatchewan and Athabasca river basins, making it an obvious location for fur trading. Vancouver has a natural harbor. Montreal is the furthest upstream ships could sail without encountering rapids (since bypassed). Calgary overcame its disadvantaged geography to build a break-in-bulk point by achieving critical mass. Such cities are very rare, and mostly American: Atlanta, Charlottle, Dallas, Denver, Phoenix and Las Vegas. Los Angeles is the best example of a self invented city as its only geographic asset is having the greatest flat, developable land on the rugged west coast. Through self invention it was able to attract enough resources to build out an artificial harbor, rail connections, aqueducts and freeways which in turn attracted even more resources. Like its American counterparts, Calgary succeeded by attracting dreamers, schemers and hucksters like RB Bennett and James Lougheed who created economic opportunities through their own will.

The “break bulk” case for Calgary is that it was where Banff tourists have changed modes from planes to ground transport since the 1950’s, which made it the logical point for foreign oil executives to arrive in Alberta since the 1980’s.

 

[DougB]

The “break bulk” case for Calgary is that it was where Banff tourists have changed modes from planes to ground transport since the 1950’s, which made it the logical point for foreign oil executives to arrive in Alberta since the 1980’s.

It was the other way around. Banff tourism was relatively small until the 90's as Calgary is far away from everywhere. Many of the hotels were summer operation only until to 80's. The oil industry achieved critical mass in the 70's as Calgary had the engineering and financial talent, and entrepreneurial culture to develop risky unconventional petroleum reserves (arctic, sour gas, deep gas, oilsands) suddenly rendered economically possible by geopolitical events. The oil industry attracted enough supporting business services that Calgary achieved critical mass to attract corporate HQ's in the 90's (ex. CPKC, Suncor, TC Energy, Enbridge, Shaw). That in turn drove more direct flights to YYC (a plucky startup called WestJet also helped). The critical mass of direct flights attracted more tourists which attracted more direct flights.

 

[Beltline_B]

It’s a combination of the oil industry and Banff tourism. Tourists were coming from all over including as far as Europe direct to Calgary long before the 90s and not just during the summer. Direct flights in from the US were fairly busy even in winter with skiers coming from the US..
obviously, the oil industry would’ve had a huge impact on Calgary, but it’s a combination of the two.

 

[Silence&Motion]

With respect to geography and Calgary's population, I've always liked this video by Real Life Lore, explaining why so many more people live in the southern Canadian prairies than just across the border in the northern US flyover states.

The answer he gives is that Canada really only has two areas that can support agriculture and, subsequently, large scale urbanization: the Great Lakes/St Lawrence River corridor, and the prairies. He also mentions oil being a major factor. However, the geography alone suggests that Canada has always been destined to have one of its largest metros somewhere in the Calgary-Edmonton-Winnipeg triangle, simply because there are not many other places for Canadians to live. There are many reasons why Calgary is the most desirable place to live in this triangle.

 

[Always_Biking]

I think you're right. The last census done by the city showed Panorama as the most populous, but that was a few years back in 2019

25,129 Beltline
25,710 Panorama

Given that several Beltline projects - 11+11, Oliver I, BLVD Beltline, Park Place I, Cube, Underwood and The Royal (Underwood and the Royal opened right after the city census) - have been completed since that last census, they would have added more than 2000 units to the Beltline, it's safe to say the Beltline is easily the most populous neighborhood in the city.

Edit, checked Statscan and profiles from the 2021 census show
Beltline 25,880
Panorama 25,535
So it's official, the Beltline is Calgary's most populous hood, and now in 2023, it would have widened the gap significantly.

The gap will be much bigger now with Oliver, Nude and Park Central opening up in the past year. I would guess the Beltline’s population today is probably close to 30k.

 

[Beltline_B]

Trying to think of what’s been built since 2021 in the Beltline and this is what I can think of of the top of my head.
BLVD
Park Central
Oliver
11&11
Nude
The Hat
1400
Underwood
The one on 5th street and 17th

 

[Surrealplaces]

Trying to think of what’s been built since 2021 in the Beltline and this is what I can think of of the top of my head.
BLVD
Park Central
Oliver
11&11
Nude
The Hat
1400
Underwood
The one on 5th street and 17th

From July of 2021 onward this is what I came up with (and I might be missing others) Redstone was only starting to rent out units in June of 2021, and probably could have been added, but left it off.

BLVD - 650
Park Central - 463
Oliver - 866
11&11 - 369
Nude - 177
The Hat - 239
1400 - 106
The Fifth - 34
Upten - 379

Total of 3,283 units added since the statscan profile from July of 2021.