I think of the country like multiple bodies in a hydrostatic equilibrium, forces pushing outwards, and forces pushing inwards with fluid flowing between the bodies, and fluid being added from the outside.
Last year Ontario had a 'push' inward of 363,000 international students, net new around 220,000. This year Ontario will have a push of only 160,000 new international students, net new zero maximum (and likely to be lower).
That is a huge change! Especially since arrivals are mostly in a surge in August-September, causing significant pressures in the housing market. Starting for 2025, post-graduation work permits will be changing too. Both combined will mean non-permanent resident number will be a negative contributor to population growth instead of positive.
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Over the next 3 years, that chart will be net negative by a total of 500,000 or so. This year it should drop by quite a bit with the combination of no new Ukrainian arrivals after March 31, zero contribution from international students, and lower university contributions on post graduate work permits (2019 and 2020 students).
