darwink
Senior Member
Problem is, the window for "we identify the riskiest sources of spread (gyms, indoor dining, and weddings) and close those down for the sake of the rest of society" is past. We cannot sustain a daily count of 1500 (if we reduced R to 1 ). Contact tracing hasn't been working well for a long time now and also totally collapsed so we don't know either. So we need to reduce further to get us to a sustainable load. Right now our cases in hospital and ICU reflect our case counts from the 28 days previous to November 10 roughly (13,317), not where we are in 44 days if cases went flat today, at 42,000 approximately (28*1500).I'm not pro-lockdown. I would just like to know what the hell the plan is in this province. We know more about the disease at this point, we should be in a position to make some decisions about priorities. "Just ignore it and it will go away" isn't an option. We either keep all businesses open, overwhelm our hospitals, and then impose a total lockdown, or we identify the riskiest sources of spread (gyms, indoor dining, and weddings) and close those down for the sake of the rest of society. Gyms and wedding venues are just not that big a part of our economy or the functioning of our society for us to sacrifice more important things like schools and hospitals.
The idea is to get to some holding pattern that gets us through the winter without a breakdown of our healthcare system and/or a total lockdown like the one we had back in March.
Things are going to get very rough.