Mountain Man
Senior Member
I'll be amazed if there isn't some sort of lockdown this week, we now have the most new cases in the county. 1584 yesterday... yikes!
|
|
|
Covid-19
- Thread starter Mountain Man
- Start date
JonnyCanuck
Senior Member
It is inevitable that non-essential businesses will be targeted again. Toronto took this measure and it is in effect until December 21. Calgary and Edmonton will likely follow suit.
I really do empathize with the local retail & hospitality sectors. Their business has been devastated already by one prolonged closure. Then when they did reopen it was with restrictions that further reduced customers and revenue. Now if they close for the next month, they miss out on any opportunity to leverage what should be their busiest time of the year. Once again, it will be the big box stores, Amazon etc who have on-line purchasing mastered that will be the beneficiaries of purchases for Christmas.
This could be the death knell for small local retailers and restaurants. What is there for them to look forward to once the lockdown is lifted? They will have missed the holiday season bump in business and start the new year which, in a normal year, is already the slowest period for them.
I really do empathize with the local retail & hospitality sectors. Their business has been devastated already by one prolonged closure. Then when they did reopen it was with restrictions that further reduced customers and revenue. Now if they close for the next month, they miss out on any opportunity to leverage what should be their busiest time of the year. Once again, it will be the big box stores, Amazon etc who have on-line purchasing mastered that will be the beneficiaries of purchases for Christmas.
This could be the death knell for small local retailers and restaurants. What is there for them to look forward to once the lockdown is lifted? They will have missed the holiday season bump in business and start the new year which, in a normal year, is already the slowest period for them.
Last edited:
darwink
Senior Member
Prediction time for measures that would be in the basket for politicians to choose from:
- Close high schools and maybe jr high
- Restaurants and bars to take out only or back to 50% of fire capacity
- No music or sound on at bars or restaurants
- Stores to 25-50% of fire capacity
- Indoor malls to a similar limit - perhaps wording of an order to encourage giving admission tickets to malls for 2 hour windows for shopping
- Mandatory masking
- Fines for not self isolating
- Fines for not disclosing pending test results or about COVID status
- Introduction of isolation centres outside of hospitals (currently people in the community who refuse to self isolate are housed in hospitals afaik)
- Fines for businesses that encourage people to work sick through policies, expectations, or lack of supports
- Introduction of short term paid sickleave for people who do not meet the criteria for the federal benefit (long term leave for people who are positive)
- Offices to 10% capacity maximum - fines for offices which ignore the rule
This is sickening. At a time when cases are through the roof, these geniuses are doing a crowded protest and none of them even wearing a mask.
Mountain Man
Senior Member
SMRT
Cowtown
Senior Member
I have been mildly annoyed by these kinds of people, but their decision to do this now when there are record cases happening makes me want to choke the living shit out of them.
CBBarnett
Senior Member
It's perplexingly ironic to me to see so many people that are so misled, self-centred and selfish to march for freedom against the society that has given them the freedom to be so selfish. A society - even the most "free" ones like ours - doesn't work if basic public responsibility can be so openly neglected, by so many with no consequences at a time of critical action.
In non-emergencies, people are totally free to complain, be assholes, be selfish; our rich and free system has more than enough slack to accommodate their behaviours as much as many of us dislike them. The cost of jerks is built in and the stakes aren't high enough to cause many immediate life-threatening issues.
In times of crisis - specifically a crisis that get's exponentially worse, quickly as a result of selfish behaviour - our system can't afford that slack we usually afford to selfishness. If someone rejects the minor inconvenience of rule changes applied to them (with next to no enforcement) to save lives, they have lost the plot and are a societal threat.
This is all the more ironic because our Provincial government has been notable in it's very light (and failing) touch to enforce or mandate anything of consequence that would manage and mitigate the pandemic's health and economic impacts. The result is a deepening crisis, multiplying by the day to the short and long-term effect undermining of everyone's ideal outcomes including the normal people and the selfish ones themselves. Failure to control the disease will cut short and long term growth, while killing many and devastating the systems that support people in living their lives the way they see fit (i.e. freedom).
While many people are losing the freedom to go to Fabric Land with no mask, many others are losing their lives, their livelihoods (from refusing to manage the disease and it's impacts to businesses and individuals) and their long-term health due to complications from COVID. If you have an accident and need medical treatment - guess what, you are losing the freedom in about 3 weeks when the hospitals are overrun to go to the ER and get treated, thanks to selfish behaviour and a government that abdicates it's responsibility to protect all of society.
In non-emergencies, people are totally free to complain, be assholes, be selfish; our rich and free system has more than enough slack to accommodate their behaviours as much as many of us dislike them. The cost of jerks is built in and the stakes aren't high enough to cause many immediate life-threatening issues.
In times of crisis - specifically a crisis that get's exponentially worse, quickly as a result of selfish behaviour - our system can't afford that slack we usually afford to selfishness. If someone rejects the minor inconvenience of rule changes applied to them (with next to no enforcement) to save lives, they have lost the plot and are a societal threat.
This is all the more ironic because our Provincial government has been notable in it's very light (and failing) touch to enforce or mandate anything of consequence that would manage and mitigate the pandemic's health and economic impacts. The result is a deepening crisis, multiplying by the day to the short and long-term effect undermining of everyone's ideal outcomes including the normal people and the selfish ones themselves. Failure to control the disease will cut short and long term growth, while killing many and devastating the systems that support people in living their lives the way they see fit (i.e. freedom).
While many people are losing the freedom to go to Fabric Land with no mask, many others are losing their lives, their livelihoods (from refusing to manage the disease and it's impacts to businesses and individuals) and their long-term health due to complications from COVID. If you have an accident and need medical treatment - guess what, you are losing the freedom in about 3 weeks when the hospitals are overrun to go to the ER and get treated, thanks to selfish behaviour and a government that abdicates it's responsibility to protect all of society.
I'm glad we live in a free country but times like this make me think we have too much freedom, or that people here have definitely taken it for granted.
darwink
Senior Member
People are scared. They want to feel in control. They feel control over their own lives is being taken from them. They have the wrong target though - the control is being taken from a virus we know how to beat, not by a government trying (with seriously laggardly responses) to control the virus. Conspiracy of why is the easy way out, to counter that fear of the virus, it lets them name their fear with something they (to varying degrees and ability) know how to confront - the government and 'elites'.
I don't fear individual citizens holding crazy beliefs. What I fear is the acceleration and weaponization of disinformation by both enemies of the state and by grifters for profit.
We need to get through the next 5, 6 months. All I can say is that it is likely to get worse before it gets better, in every single aspect.
I don't fear individual citizens holding crazy beliefs. What I fear is the acceleration and weaponization of disinformation by both enemies of the state and by grifters for profit.
We need to get through the next 5, 6 months. All I can say is that it is likely to get worse before it gets better, in every single aspect.
Alex_YYC
Senior Member
As mid-guided as they might be, I still can’t stand the sight of people protesting their freedom being taken away.
If I had to guess I would say there were a dozen splinter groups and mindsets that made up today’s protest. Nothing like a crisis to bring all the wackos together.
If I had to guess I would say there were a dozen splinter groups and mindsets that made up today’s protest. Nothing like a crisis to bring all the wackos together.
Silence&Motion
Senior Member
If they shut down schools while allowing bars and gyms to stay open... 
My three young kids, who were out of school and daycare from March until August, have been cycling in and out of daycare/school all Fall because they have to isolate for 2 weeks any time someone tests positive in their class, or isolate anytime they develop cold symptoms (typically 4-5 days to get a test and results). This has been getting more and more frequent as cases have gone up in the province. I'm entering my third week in a row of having to try to "work" at home while also caring for small children who are out of daycare. It is pure hell to try to keep little kids inside for two weeks. They're bouncing off the walls.
In the midst of all this, I happened to walk by a local gym this evening. Because it was dark outside and the lights were on in side, I saw the whole thing: the gym was packed full of people. Not a single person with a mask. No one socially distancing. People spotting each other on the machines. This is why our cases are going through the roof. There is a significant proportion of people out there who just don't give a fuck. They don't care if the schools have to shut down, or if the hospitals are overrun, or a quarter of the residents at a LTC die off within the span of a couple weeks. It's really disgusting.
(Sorry for the rant!!)
My three young kids, who were out of school and daycare from March until August, have been cycling in and out of daycare/school all Fall because they have to isolate for 2 weeks any time someone tests positive in their class, or isolate anytime they develop cold symptoms (typically 4-5 days to get a test and results). This has been getting more and more frequent as cases have gone up in the province. I'm entering my third week in a row of having to try to "work" at home while also caring for small children who are out of daycare. It is pure hell to try to keep little kids inside for two weeks. They're bouncing off the walls.
In the midst of all this, I happened to walk by a local gym this evening. Because it was dark outside and the lights were on in side, I saw the whole thing: the gym was packed full of people. Not a single person with a mask. No one socially distancing. People spotting each other on the machines. This is why our cases are going through the roof. There is a significant proportion of people out there who just don't give a fuck. They don't care if the schools have to shut down, or if the hospitals are overrun, or a quarter of the residents at a LTC die off within the span of a couple weeks. It's really disgusting.
(Sorry for the rant!!)
Don't apologize for the rant, I feel the same way. I understand people like to go to the gym and it becomes part of their routine, but ultimately a gym is not a necessity. I feel for bar and resto owners, but ultimately they are not a necessity. Logically it doesn't make sense to shut anything down unless those businesses are shut down.
JonnyCanuck
Senior Member
Amongst the pro-lockdown segment, there seems to be this assumption that harsher restrictions for 2 to 4 weeks ... just in time for Christmas .... will get us to where we need to be. I hope this time we see some actual targets that reflect 'where we need to be'. In the spring, there was no objective other than flattening the curve. This was due in part because the COVID models were so widely exaggerated (everybody was freaking out) and we did not know enough about the virus. After 8 months we now know a lot.
Regardless of whether these restrictions are lifted before Christmas (I am guessing they will just be extended), it will hardly be back to 'near normal'. I think we are faced with this up & down case count, and open & close the economy for the next 4-6 months. How long can business survive under these conditions? How long can people go without steady work and an uncertain future? How long can the federal government keep subsidizing wages, revenues, expenses? I don't think second wave of CERB benefits was ever factored in the scheme of things. I guess we will find out soon as Christia Freeland is supposed to give us a long overdue fiscal update.
Regardless of whether these restrictions are lifted before Christmas (I am guessing they will just be extended), it will hardly be back to 'near normal'. I think we are faced with this up & down case count, and open & close the economy for the next 4-6 months. How long can business survive under these conditions? How long can people go without steady work and an uncertain future? How long can the federal government keep subsidizing wages, revenues, expenses? I don't think second wave of CERB benefits was ever factored in the scheme of things. I guess we will find out soon as Christia Freeland is supposed to give us a long overdue fiscal update.
darwink
Senior Member
4 weeks may be enough. But it would have to be more effective than in the spring (which is possible because of masks hopefully adding an extra reduction in R). The goal would be to get active cases down to a level that when the lockdown lifted that even with measures at lets say a reproduction rate of 1.2, that we can get to either April 1st or May 1st without active cases above 1000 again. 14 weeks for April 1. So 300 if we can sustain measures to hold at 1.2. 100 if we can sustain 1.4.
From 13,000+ active cases today, we'd need to impose lockdown measures to get us to R 0.1 to get to 100 active. I don't think that is achievable. Even 0.15 to get us to 300 active is most likely unachievable.
To drive cases down fast, we'd have to lockdown hard - exceptionally hard. Like Paris or Rome hard. Much more 'locked down' than in the spring.
At this point it is a choice, long restrictions to get us to the same place as short but much harder restrictions.
And when it the hard or soft lockdown is over we can't open up as much as we have been. We cannot signal to people that social gatherings at homes are fine.
Of course, the above assumes we would rather 1 lockdown instead of 2. We could do two 4 week lockdowns with a break for christmas. Which with perfect compliance would work!! But would stopping for chirstmas send a signal that social gatherings are fine? in which case it would be entirely pointless.
Or could do 4 weeks on, 4 to 10 weeks off until vaccines are widely available for LTC residents and everyone (staff, visitors and patients) arriving at hospitals.
From 13,000+ active cases today, we'd need to impose lockdown measures to get us to R 0.1 to get to 100 active. I don't think that is achievable. Even 0.15 to get us to 300 active is most likely unachievable.
To drive cases down fast, we'd have to lockdown hard - exceptionally hard. Like Paris or Rome hard. Much more 'locked down' than in the spring.
At this point it is a choice, long restrictions to get us to the same place as short but much harder restrictions.
And when it the hard or soft lockdown is over we can't open up as much as we have been. We cannot signal to people that social gatherings at homes are fine.
Of course, the above assumes we would rather 1 lockdown instead of 2. We could do two 4 week lockdowns with a break for christmas. Which with perfect compliance would work!! But would stopping for chirstmas send a signal that social gatherings are fine? in which case it would be entirely pointless.
Or could do 4 weeks on, 4 to 10 weeks off until vaccines are widely available for LTC residents and everyone (staff, visitors and patients) arriving at hospitals.
Silence&Motion
Senior Member
I'm not pro-lockdown. I would just like to know what the hell the plan is in this province. We know more about the disease at this point, we should be in a position to make some decisions about priorities. "Just ignore it and it will go away" isn't an option. We either keep all businesses open, overwhelm our hospitals, and then impose a total lockdown, or we identify the riskiest sources of spread (gyms, indoor dining, and weddings) and close those down for the sake of the rest of society. Gyms and wedding venues are just not that big a part of our economy or the functioning of our society for us to sacrifice more important things like schools and hospitals.
The idea is to get to some holding pattern that gets us through the winter without a breakdown of our healthcare system and/or a total lockdown like the one we had back in March.
The idea is to get to some holding pattern that gets us through the winter without a breakdown of our healthcare system and/or a total lockdown like the one we had back in March.