Covid-19

[heightjunkie]

This thread has been dormant for a month. Even though it is still the 'topic du jour', I guess everyone is just tired of it.

Hospitalizations are now over 400 in Alberta. Before this variant took charge, we were under 300 and stable. This is the number that has everyone worried and will most certainly lead to tougher restrictions if it does not start declining.

Calgary wastewater samples show recent spike in coronavirus

The data shows levels of the virus trending upward, and sample points higher than the previous highs seen in mid-December, when Calgary was in its second wave

calgaryherald.com

Very regrettably I would bet on things getting worse before they get better.

 

[Silence&Motion]

It's infuriating that so much of the political messaging in this province and elsewhere was: "the reason young people have to stay home is not because they are at risk personally, but because they might infect their elderly relatives". Well, guess what? It turns out that if the 60 and under crowd throws caution to the wind, they can still overwhelm the hospital system even if most 80+ year olds have been vaccinated. Schools shut down again, not out of a sense of caution, but because there are so many teachers infected or isolating that there's a staff shortage.

There's no reason that Alberta could not have followed the Maritimes' model of maintaining vigilance and keeping infections at a marginal level. That strategy has been a proven winner for public health, mental health, and the economy. But Kenney has been so busy trying to virtue signal "personal liberties" to his rural base that we've ended up in the endless cycle of letting surges get out of control, followed by some press conference where an exasperated Kenney pleads for "personal responsibility" and then finally a long and severe lockdown which even his own party members are essentially telling people to resist. Then, Kenney rushes to declare victory and reopen the moment hospital cases start to ebb, and we end up starting the cycle all over again, except we're starting at a much higher case rate than they cycle before. His base hates him. Swing voters hate him. I seriously do not understand this strategy at all.

 

[YourBoy007]

This thread has been dormant for a month. Even though it is still the 'topic du jour', I guess everyone is just tired of it.

Hospitalizations are now over 400 in Alberta. Before this variant took charge, we were under 300 and stable. This is the number that has everyone worried and will most certainly lead to tougher restrictions if it does not start declining.

These are still the numbers from before the restrictions were announced. It will take another week or two before we start seeing the effect of the new restrictions.

 

[Sambo]

It's infuriating that so much of the political messaging in this province and elsewhere was: "the reason young people have to stay home is not because they are at risk personally, but because they might infect their elderly relatives". Well, guess what? It turns out that if the 60 and under crowd throws caution to the wind, they can still overwhelm the hospital system even if most 80+ year olds have been vaccinated. Schools shut down again, not out of a sense of caution, but because there are so many teachers infected or isolating that there's a staff shortage.

There's no reason that Alberta could not have followed the Maritimes' model of maintaining vigilance and keeping infections at a marginal level. That strategy has been a proven winner for public health, mental health, and the economy. But Kenney has been so busy trying to virtue signal "personal liberties" to his rural base that we've ended up in the endless cycle of letting surges get out of control, followed by some press conference where an exasperated Kenney pleads for "personal responsibility" and then finally a long and severe lockdown which even his own party members are essentially telling people to resist. Then, Kenney rushes to declare victory and reopen the moment hospital cases start to ebb, and we end up starting the cycle all over again, except we're starting at a much higher case rate than they cycle before. His base hates him. Swing voters hate him. I seriously do not understand this strategy at all.

Dream on with your Maritime model. That could never work with Alberta’s population.

 

[darwink]

Dream on with your Maritime model. That could never work with Alberta’s population.

We were almost there in the summer. We got down to what, 6 cases a day? We've declared victory now multiple times without finishing the job and learning from our successes, and each time it has caused more deaths, and more lockdowns.

 

[Silence&Motion]

Dream on with your Maritime model. That could never work with Alberta’s population.

Why not? The combined population of the Maritime provinces is over 2 million, occupying a much smaller area than Alberta. What about the population of Japan? Korea? Australia? Taiwan?

I don't understand this sentiment where we look for exceptions to explain away every jurisdiction that has managed to successfully suppress the virus instead of looking at the mistakes we've made.

 

[Patrick.1980]

Why not? The combined population of the Maritime provinces is over 2 million, occupying a much smaller area than Alberta. What about the population of Japan? Korea? Australia? Taiwan?

I don't understand this sentiment where we look for exceptions to explain away every jurisdiction that has managed to successfully suppress the virus instead of looking at the mistakes we've made.

Geography and population are part it, among other things. Places like the Maritimes and New Zealand are examples of places that controlled the virus, but most places don't have the equivalent situation. If New Zealand was a province in the middle of Canada somewhere the story would have been different, same for the Maritimes. The Maritimes are connected to Canada via a small section of border between NB and Que, with only a handful of roads in and out and they were able to set up checkpoints. The Maritimes were diligent in enforcing quarantines, but part of their success could be related to population, economy and workforce as it much more difficult to enforce quarantines given the sheer number of people and migrant workers traveling between or through provinces like Ontario and Quebec. The amount of travelers or workers coming in and out of Alberta or through Alberta is magnitudes higher than that going in and out NB and NS. Those provinces also don't have the large urban centres of Que\Ont\AB\BC, which is where most of the cases have been. The land area of the maritimes is small, but the population is more rural and largely static.

With that said, they also did other things better than the rest of Canada like instituting the masks sooner, and being diligent about enforcing quarantines. I also believe the mind set to fight this virus is also better in NB/NS than other parts of Canada. Knowing what I know about the Maritimes, it's quite likely their sense of community is better than other virus hotspots in Canada where the populations are more urban, less rooted and more transient.

Here in Alberta leadership has been a problem, though I sometimes think the leader we have is more of symptom of the problem - the problem being that we too many selfish and ignorant people.

 

[MichaelS]

Does anyone think they will throw open the doors for all to be vaccinated soon? Rather frustrating seeing places like Telus convention center not even being used at 10% of capacity. How much further ahead would we be if we just now made it a free for all? How long do we give these at risk groups to get there's, before we can say they have had enough of a headstart.

 

[Surrealplaces]

Does anyone think they will throw open the doors for all to be vaccinated soon? Rather frustrating seeing places like Telus convention center not even being used at 10% of capacity. How much further ahead would we be if we just now made it a free for all? How long do we give these at risk groups to get there's, before we can say they have had enough of a headstart.

At some point that might have to be the case. The virus has been most dangerous on people over 80, or people over 70, and most of those people are already vaccinated. Those who want to be vaccinated have had the opportunity. The difference in risk between younger age groups is much narrower, and the risk is more related to a person's line of work. Once everyone over 60 is vaccinated, maybe they should open it up?

 

[darwink]

Geography and population are part it, among other things. Places like the Maritimes and New Zealand are examples of places that controlled the virus, but most places don't have the equivalent situation. If New Zealand was a province in the middle of Canada somewhere the story would have been different, same for the Maritimes. The Maritimes are connected to Canada via a small section of border between NB and Que, with only a handful of roads in and out and they were able to set up checkpoints. The Maritimes were diligent in enforcing quarantines, but part of their success could be related to population, economy and workforce as it much more difficult to enforce quarantines given the sheer number of people and migrant workers traveling between or through provinces like Ontario and Quebec. The amount of travelers or workers coming in and out of Alberta or through Alberta is magnitudes higher than that going in and out NB and NS. Those provinces also don't have the large urban centres of Que\Ont\AB\BC, which is where most of the cases have been. The land area of the maritimes is small, but the population is more rural and largely static.

With that said, they also did other things better than the rest of Canada like instituting the masks sooner, and being diligent about enforcing quarantines. I also believe the mind set to fight this virus is also better in NB/NS than other parts of Canada. Knowing what I know about the Maritimes, it's quite likely their sense of community is better than other virus hotspots in Canada where the populations are more urban, less rooted and more transient.

Here in Alberta leadership has been a problem, though I sometimes think the leader we have is more of symptom of the problem - the problem being that we too many selfish and ignorant people.

How hard to do you think setting up border cordons would be? It isn't like there are thousands of roads. The roads argument is entirely bogus. We've hired 2000 people to contact trace - last summer we couldn't have hired university students to sit at the border at every entry point? It would have been pretty easy at the start to just stop plowing the last KM of minor roads if we had decided to do it early and concentrate into a few crossings. In the summer, can use just a mass of people.

We decided not to do this to not piss off rich people with second houses in BC, which includes a lot of the province's cabinet. Because we had 'won' the 1st wave, we thought we could negotiate with the virus instead of winning.

Can also do the same strategy without cordons - which would turn into a far more aggressive version of our strategy - setting the thresholds way lower, and responding way faster by acknowledging that for this virus trends don't change on their own, only in response to changes in behaviour (whether directed by the government or by personal behaviour changes).

You're also ignoring the political economy factors - if we had set COVID zero as the goal, and said starting a certain day, this is what we were doing to accomplish it, all of a sudden Sask comes along, and so does BC. Manitoba comes too. Then Ontario and Quebec are in between two bubbles, and you have the question: should they join and just make bubble Canada? I bet so.

 

[Sambo]

How hard to do you think setting up border cordons would be? It isn't like there are thousands of roads. The roads argument is entirely bogus. We've hired 2000 people to contact trace - last summer we couldn't have hired university students to sit at the border at every entry point? It would have been pretty easy at the start to just stop plowing the last KM of minor roads if we had decided to do it early and concentrate into a few crossings. In the summer, can use just a mass of people.

We decided not to do this to not piss off rich people with second houses in BC, which includes a lot of the province's cabinet. Because we had 'won' the 1st wave, we thought we could negotiate with the virus instead of winning.

Can also do the same strategy without cordons - which would turn into a far more aggressive version of our strategy - setting the thresholds way lower, and responding way faster by acknowledging that for this virus trends don't change on their own, only in response to changes in behaviour (whether directed by the government or by personal behaviour changes).

You're also ignoring the political economy factors - if we had set COVID zero as the goal, and said starting a certain day, this is what we were doing to accomplish it, all of a sudden Sask comes along, and so does BC. Manitoba comes too. Then Ontario and Quebec are in between two bubbles, and you have the question: should they join and just make bubble Canada? I bet so.

You live in a dream world. Focus on the present situation and in the environment in which you live. Albertans are not following the current recommendations. If they did, this situation would ease. Half the exposures are in social circles. You can't control that with legislation. Focus on the vaccine avoiders now.

 

[Silence&Motion]

You live in a dream world. Focus on the present situation and in the environment in which you live. Albertans are not following the current recommendations. If they did, this situation would ease. Half the exposures are in social circles. You can't control that with legislation. Focus on the vaccine avoiders now.

That we've managed to suppress the first two waves (and probably will with this third wave) suggests that Albertans do respond to public health orders. Indeed, public opinion research has shown repeatedly that the majority of Albertans think that the government has not been strict enough with public health measures. The fact that Alberta's second and third waves have led the country in cases/capita, and we're on track to overtake Quebec in total cases/capita, is absolutely a reflection of government policy and not any inherent characteristics of our province. All political reporting points to the fact that Kenney's public health decisions have been focused on placating a small portion of the UCP caucus who represent an even smaller portion of the Alberta public. The UCP has always been most worried about having another Wild Rose-style protest party splinter the conservative vote in the next election. It's very unfortunate that they've prioritized that worry over sound public policy.

 

[darwink]

You live in a dream world. Focus on the present situation and in the environment in which you live. Albertans are not following the current recommendations. If they did, this situation would ease. Half the exposures are in social circles. You can't control that with legislation. Focus on the vaccine avoiders now.

You ignore that we have successfully had enough compliance with measures to do this twice now. Keep reproduction below 1 and wait long enough, cases will reach zero. We just have not waited enough.

We are currently doing it a third time, and hopefully we won't have to do it a fourth time by opening up before immunity is at a level to keep reproduction below 1.

And yes, we did control this in social circles. Albertans had the lowest rate of social visits over the year end holidays. The assumption that a lack of social solidarity exists because of loud chuckleheads is wrong.

The biggest problem seems to be after a year of this, our governing party's caucus and cabinet seems to not understand how viruses work.

 

[Patrick.1980]

How hard to do you think setting up border cordons would be? It isn't like there are thousands of roads. The roads argument is entirely bogus. We've hired 2000 people to contact trace - last summer we couldn't have hired university students to sit at the border at every entry point? It would have been pretty easy at the start to just stop plowing the last KM of minor roads if we had decided to do it early and concentrate into a few crossings. In the summer, can use just a mass of people.

We decided not to do this to not piss off rich people with second houses in BC, which includes a lot of the province's cabinet. Because we had 'won' the 1st wave, we thought we could negotiate with the virus instead of winning.

Can also do the same strategy without cordons - which would turn into a far more aggressive version of our strategy - setting the thresholds way lower, and responding way faster by acknowledging that for this virus trends don't change on their own, only in response to changes in behaviour (whether directed by the government or by personal behaviour changes).

You're also ignoring the political economy factors - if we had set COVID zero as the goal, and said starting a certain day, this is what we were doing to accomplish it, all of a sudden Sask comes along, and so does BC. Manitoba comes too. Then Ontario and Quebec are in between two bubbles, and you have the question: should they join and just make bubble Canada? I bet so.

You're oversimplifying things. I agree wholeheartedly that Alberta could have done better but you're exaggerating things. The borders weren't left open for a few rich people with houses in BC. Is that why all the other provinces including BC left their borders open? Because of rich people with houses in BC? You're also making an assumption that all of the other provinces would have joined and followed Alberta's lead.

We could have and should have been more aggressive with the virus. I'm totally in agreement. My point wasn't that we shouldn't have been, my point was that it's easy to compare other provinces or other countries to Nova Scotia and New Zealand, but the reality is it's not the same situation. Personally, I would have been okay with all of the provinces having border checks, and enforcing quarantines. The new variant that has become such a problem, is because of people travelling. A more rigid enforcement of traveling and quarantines would have staved off the new variant.

 

[darwink]

If you look at this story from only a few months ago, it is all about secondary home owners. https://www.citynews1130.com/2021/01/15/cranbrook-kimberly-interprovincial-travel-ban/

Older one welcoming Albertans: https://calgary.ctvnews.ca/alberta-...24?cache=qpcupizl?autoPlay=true?autoPlay=true

Plenty of the push back on closures has come from the secondary home crowd.

We could have closed the borders. And the worst part is -- after COVID zero there would have been no internal need anymore. It is another short term pain for very long term gain. Acting like we couldn't because were special in a bad way is just defeatism.