Cowtown
Senior Member
Brace for some exciting times.
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Anyone planning to travel to the US: Yay or Nay?
- Thread starter Albertasaurus
- Start date
I'm not sure what to expect to be honest. There will be so e pain for sure. Not sure how oil and gas specifically will be hit.
So right now WCS is selling at $54.00 per barrel, and with a 10% tariff, that puts it around $60 per barrel to the buyer in the US. So what happens next?
- Do Americans look at a price of $60 and so no thanks?
- Do suppliers then drop the price so the buyers pay a similar price to that of before the tariffs?
- Do Americans continue to buy at the price + the new tariff, but buy less of it?
- Do the sellers and buyers compromise to a middle price will both sides eat some of the cost?
It's going to be interesting to watch it play out, and the same for other industries. I can't imagine there are any industries or businesses here that won't somehow be affected.
So right now WCS is selling at $54.00 per barrel, and with a 10% tariff, that puts it around $60 per barrel to the buyer in the US. So what happens next?
- Do Americans look at a price of $60 and so no thanks?
- Do suppliers then drop the price so the buyers pay a similar price to that of before the tariffs?
- Do Americans continue to buy at the price + the new tariff, but buy less of it?
- Do the sellers and buyers compromise to a middle price will both sides eat some of the cost?
It's going to be interesting to watch it play out, and the same for other industries. I can't imagine there are any industries or businesses here that won't somehow be affected.
Roaring Flames
Senior Member
Another big one is softwood lumber, which the US imports a third of from Canada. Americans can expect housing prices to rise.
61% of crude oil imported last year into the US came from Canada. US refineries are specialized to the heavier type of crude oil (the type that mostly arrives from Canada) Increases in fuel prices doesn't just effect the average vehicle owner either. Jet fuel price increases means flying will cost more too.
61% of crude oil imported last year into the US came from Canada. US refineries are specialized to the heavier type of crude oil (the type that mostly arrives from Canada) Increases in fuel prices doesn't just effect the average vehicle owner either. Jet fuel price increases means flying will cost more too.
darwink
Senior Member
The damage is the wider spread here:
That is what being mutually captive caused.
In the end with a wider spread what's your opinion of how it plays out here in Alberta economy/jobs wise?
I'm not an expert at O&G, and thus the question, why would there be more of a spread between Maya and WCS? Wouldn't Maya also be affected by tariffs?
I'm not an expert at O&G, and thus the question, why would there be more of a spread between Maya and WCS? Wouldn't Maya also be affected by tariffs?
darwink
Senior Member
Maya is on the ocean, and can go to other places. WCS cannot. The USA stupidly can pay more for heavy oil to travel to the USA from elsewhere. Then the empty tankers can travel to Mexico, fill up, and take Mexican heavy back across.
Since the tanker is full both ways the efficiency loss isn't even that extreme. Its just dumb
Thanks. Another question, IIRC TMX transports WCS crude to the ocean, is it that we don't transport enough of it?
darwink
Senior Member
Yeah.
Here is a thing put together for a project. Basically there isn't capacity on an all Canadian route to the ocean for the PADD 2, 3 and 4 sales (and pipeline fed PADD 5 sales). It isn't that we need the capacity to ship it all to the ocean to realize good prices, we need to be able to clear the market in Alberta or else in Alberta prices crater. Whether that balance 2 or 3 years from now is 1 million more barrels, 2 million more barrels, I don't know. It is a big bet, a big expense for an insurance policy.
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Thanks again, that makes much more sense now. I didn't realize barrels to the US were that much disproportionally higher than what we have for TMX.
DougB
Senior Member
Number 2
ZoomZoom42
New Member
I had a trip planned to Hawaii at the end of February and I switched it out to go to Jamaica instead. Had a great time.
Alex_YYC
Senior Member
My parents and my sister were planning on driving down the west coast of the US and back up the eastern slope of the Rockies and I convinced them to cancel and go to Europe instead.
They’ve never been out of NA and thought Europe would be way too expensive and too difficult for them ( language, etc) but after some planning and showing them different ways of traveling, it’s not going be much more expensive. Part of the deal is I have to go with them, which I’ll gladly do.
They’ve never been out of NA and thought Europe would be way too expensive and too difficult for them ( language, etc) but after some planning and showing them different ways of traveling, it’s not going be much more expensive. Part of the deal is I have to go with them, which I’ll gladly do.
CalgaryTiger
Senior Member
Master deal maker. Wife and I are off to France on the 16. Never been to France but have been to Europe. Excited to ride bikes down the champs elysees like I'm in the Tour De France and take the HSR down to Nice and pretend I'm going to Cannes, just got there too early. Travelling by train over the easter weekend should be fun...
Beltline_B
Senior Member
For the first time in a few years we won’t be traveling abroad. We’re going to go visit my wife’s family in Ontario. We haven’t been for a while and this year seemed as good a time as any.
Usually, when we go, we go take a little side trip down to NY state. Not this time.
Usually, when we go, we go take a little side trip down to NY state. Not this time.
We usually do a short junket to somewhere like Seattle, Nashville or some place like that. We won't be doing any of those for at least the next 4 years.
Westjet won't be getting that business, but they'll get some overseas business from me. Booked my flights to Tokyo, and return from Seoul.
Westjet won't be getting that business, but they'll get some overseas business from me. Booked my flights to Tokyo, and return from Seoul.