Anyone planning to travel to the US: Yay or Nay?

[Cowtown]

Brace for some exciting times.

 

[Surrealplaces]

I'm not sure what to expect to be honest. There will be so e pain for sure. Not sure how oil and gas specifically will be hit.

So right now WCS is selling at $54.00 per barrel, and with a 10% tariff, that puts it around $60 per barrel to the buyer in the US. So what happens next?
- Do Americans look at a price of $60 and so no thanks?
- Do suppliers then drop the price so the buyers pay a similar price to that of before the tariffs?
- Do Americans continue to buy at the price + the new tariff, but buy less of it?
- Do the sellers and buyers compromise to a middle price will both sides eat some of the cost?

It's going to be interesting to watch it play out, and the same for other industries. I can't imagine there are any industries or businesses here that won't somehow be affected.

 

[Roaring Flames]

Another big one is softwood lumber, which the US imports a third of from Canada. Americans can expect housing prices to rise.
61% of crude oil imported last year into the US came from Canada. US refineries are specialized to the heavier type of crude oil (the type that mostly arrives from Canada) Increases in fuel prices doesn't just effect the average vehicle owner either. Jet fuel price increases means flying will cost more too.

 

[darwink]

I'm not sure what to expect to be honest. There will be so e pain for sure. Not sure how oil and gas specifically will be hit.

So right now WCS is selling at $54.00 per barrel, and with a 10% tariff, that puts it around $60 per barrel to the buyer in the US. So what happens next?
- Do Americans look at a price of $60 and so no thanks?
- Do suppliers then drop the price so the buyers pay a similar price to that of before the tariffs?
- Do Americans continue to buy at the price + the new tariff, but buy less of it?
- Do the sellers and buyers compromise to a middle price will both sides eat some of the cost?

It's going to be interesting to watch it play out, and the same for other industries. I can't imagine there are any industries or businesses here that won't somehow be affected.

The damage is the wider spread here:

That is what being mutually captive caused.

 

[Surrealplaces]

In the end with a wider spread what's your opinion of how it plays out here in Alberta economy/jobs wise?

I'm not an expert at O&G, and thus the question, why would there be more of a spread between Maya and WCS? Wouldn't Maya also be affected by tariffs?

 

[darwink]

In the end with a wider spread what's your opinion of how it plays out here in Alberta economy/jobs wise?

I'm not an expert at O&G, and thus the question, why would there be more of a spread between Maya and WCS? Wouldn't Maya also be affected by tariffs?

Maya is on the ocean, and can go to other places. WCS cannot. The USA stupidly can pay more for heavy oil to travel to the USA from elsewhere. Then the empty tankers can travel to Mexico, fill up, and take Mexican heavy back across.

Since the tanker is full both ways the efficiency loss isn't even that extreme. Its just dumb

 

[Surrealplaces]

Thanks. Another question, IIRC TMX transports WCS crude to the ocean, is it that we don't transport enough of it?

 

[darwink]

Thanks. Another question, IIRC TMX transports WCS crude to the ocean, is it that we don't transport enough of it?

Yeah.

Here is a thing put together for a project. Basically there isn't capacity on an all Canadian route to the ocean for the PADD 2, 3 and 4 sales (and pipeline fed PADD 5 sales). It isn't that we need the capacity to ship it all to the ocean to realize good prices, we need to be able to clear the market in Alberta or else in Alberta prices crater. Whether that balance 2 or 3 years from now is 1 million more barrels, 2 million more barrels, I don't know. It is a big bet, a big expense for an insurance policy.

 

[Surrealplaces]

Thanks again, that makes much more sense now. I didn't realize barrels to the US were that much disproportionally higher than what we have for TMX.

 

[DougB]

I'm not sure what to expect to be honest. There will be so e pain for sure. Not sure how oil and gas specifically will be hit.

So right now WCS is selling at $54.00 per barrel, and with a 10% tariff, that puts it around $60 per barrel to the buyer in the US. So what happens next?
- Do Americans look at a price of $60 and so no thanks?
- Do suppliers then drop the price so the buyers pay a similar price to that of before the tariffs?
- Do Americans continue to buy at the price + the new tariff, but buy less of it?
- Do the sellers and buyers compromise to a middle price will both sides eat some of the cost?

It's going to be interesting to watch it play out, and the same for other industries. I can't imagine there are any industries or businesses here that won't somehow be affected.

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