Alberta Provincial Politics

[darwink]

Tbh I don’t think I would group Aheer in the centrist dissident camp with Gotfried.

You don’t have to be a social conservative to be very right wing. Just look at Danielle Smith.

 

[zagox]

Yes all of the alternatives are bad. I shutter to think how much an NDP government would spend with oil prices over $100.

Prediction: whoever forms the next government is going to be elected on a platform of a whole bunch of spending goodies. Hard to see how you win an hotly contested election in the context of a massive budget surplus without that.

 

[DougB]

Prediction: whoever forms the next government is going to be elected on a platform of a whole bunch of spending goodies. Hard to see how you win an hotly contested election in the context of a massive budget surplus without that.

Sadly, you are probably right.

 

[Surrealplaces]

Here's a question for those more in the know. Do you think the UCP will even be around next election, or will it be back to two separate conservative parties? It's obvious the party is still divided, and when they pick a new leader the division isn't going away. I think the party will split eventually, just a matter of when.

 

[Tarsus]

Yeah, no way the UCP's rural base would ever back Leela Aheer. The fact is that Calgary centrists and rural conservatives have almost nothing in common. The only thing that unites them is a vague belief that Conservatives are better for the oil industry. Even that is not really certain any more.

This is exactly why conservative politics in Alberta are in a position where they could end up losing elections for the next decade or more.
The cause of this is a big shift in the Calgary vote over the past few years.
The rural vote hasn’t changed, they are still socially conservative, and won’t change anytime soon. The Calgary vote wants someone socially liberal, but friendly to the oil industry and maybe less of the union/government mentality.

The only way I see the party staying together and winning an election is if the party can choose a centrist leader who can somehow get the rural vote. I’m. It not sure it’s possible for the near future.

 

[Tarsus]

Yes all of the alternatives are bad. I shutter to think how much an NDP government would spend with oil prices over $100.

They might do something crazy like spend $1.5bln on a pipeline that doesn’t get built.

 

[zagox]

Here's a question for those more in the know. Do you think the UCP will even be around next election, or will it be back to two separate conservative parties? It's obvious the party is still divided, and when they pick a new leader the division isn't going away. I think the party will split eventually, just a matter of when.

I don’t see the UCP literally splitting (not clear how that would work practically, there’s no divorce law for political parties). But I expect there will be two conservative parties with some current UCP MLAs in both camps at the next election. Either UCP goes hard right and the Alberta Party picks up the centrists who bail out, or the UCP goes towards the middle and a Wild Rose reboot picks up the right wing.

 

[zagox]

The only way I see the party staying together and winning an election is if the party can choose a centrist leader who can somehow get the rural vote. I’m. It not sure it’s possible for the near future.

If only they could find a Calgary-based leader with a long history of social conservatism, but also a strong appeal to big business … someone who could talk to CEOs, but also knew how to use the props of rural life to connect with small town conservatives … oh, and someone with a long track record of winning elections and experience in government… yes, that person would surely unite the right for a generation or more!

 

[Surrealplaces]

I don’t see the UCP literally splitting (not clear how that would work practically, there’s no divorce law for political parties). But I expect there will be two conservative parties with some current UCP MLAs in both camps at the next election. Either UCP goes hard right and the Alberta Party picks up the centrists who bail out, or the UCP goes towards the middle and a Wild Rose reboot picks up the right wing.

Agreed. Not so much an actual split, but more of one side breaking off and forming a party on their own, or resurrecting an old party like the Wild rose party. I don't see this marriage lasting forever, the question is how will it play out.

Things have changed over the years, and with Edmonton and Calgary making up a large amount of the population - a percentage that is on the increase - the rural vote is going to matter less and the urban vote will matter more as time goes on.

 

[darwink]

Here's a question for those more in the know. Do you think the UCP will even be around next election, or will it be back to two separate conservative parties? It's obvious the party is still divided, and when they pick a new leader the division isn't going away. I think the party will split eventually, just a matter of when.

People involved in the UCP in 2019 I believe now lead or are on the executive of at least 5 different conservative parties. Fortunately most are also separatists, deeming them non-grata from serious contention.

It is quite hard to split a party with sitting MLAs/have sitting MLAs switch parties late in the mandate. The money they raised just a week ago sits with their now opponent if they leave. The incentive is to try to get others to leave, while you stay.

The big potential split still centres around Kenney. Could he bring most of his cabinet with him if he left the UCP, deeming the UCP to be broken beyond fixing due to fissures? Could he prompt many MLAs to leave on their own if he deemed the same earlier, and entered and won the leadership race himself?

The big problem, (relative) centrist acquiescence/laziness in the face of a very motivated extreme. Is it even possible to stop a freedom convoy resource populist quack monetary lightly aligned but very angry group from taking over?

 

[Silence&Motion]

The big potential split still centres around Kenney. Could he bring most of his cabinet with him if he left the UCP, deeming the UCP to be broken beyond fixing due to fissures? Could he prompt many MLAs to leave on their own if he deemed the same earlier, and entered and won the leadership race himself?

The problem with Kenney is that he is personally very unpopular. He has a loyal inner circle, but there is no voter block that particularly likes him. The "Kenney Party" would have zero support. Things would be different if Kenney was seen as a centrist who personally attracted broader support than his party (like Notley). Of course, in that case, he may not have faced a UCP rebellion to begin with. It's a lot easier to start attacking your own leader when you smell blood in the water (or are looking at a 20% approval rating).

The problem is, Kenney has zero authenticity. When he shifted from federal to provincial politics, he positioned himself firmly as an unapologetic conservative populist, adopting this ridiculous Ralph-Klein-meets-Brad-Wall "Alberta redneck" persona, complete with a pick-up truck. But then he turned around and started hurling insults at the rural grassroots, calling them "lunatics". He might as well have quoted Hillary Clinton's "basket of deplorables". Throw in his anti-Asian comments during the pandemic and he's alienated virtually every single voter block across the province. All this, and we haven't even gotten to the actual policy disasters and scandals of the past four years, which would have strained the support of even a personally popular leader.

 

[DougB]

They might do something crazy like spend $1.5bln on a pipeline that doesn’t get built.

They might do something crazy like spend $1.5bln on a pipeline that doesn’t get built.

That was a non-recurring, sunk cost. Something truely awful would be program spending increases in excess of something slightly less than rates of growth in population and inflation as those would be budgetary drags going forwards.

 

[DougB]

The problem with Kenney is that he is personally very unpopular. He has a loyal inner circle, but there is no voter block that particularly likes him. The "Kenney Party" would have zero support. Things would be different if Kenney was seen as a centrist who personally attracted broader support than his party (like Notley). Of course, in that case, he may not have faced a UCP rebellion to begin with. It's a lot easier to start attacking your own leader when you smell blood in the water (or are looking at a 20% approval rating).

The problem is, Kenney has zero authenticity. When he shifted from federal to provincial politics, he positioned himself firmly as an unapologetic conservative populist, adopting this ridiculous Ralph-Klein-meets-Brad-Wall "Alberta redneck" persona, complete with a pick-up truck. But then he turned around and started hurling insults at the rural grassroots, calling them "lunatics". He might as well have quoted Hillary Clinton's "basket of deplorables". Throw in his anti-Asian comments during the pandemic and he's alienated virtually every single voter block across the province. All this, and we haven't even gotten to the actual policy disasters and scandals of the past four years, which would have strained the support of even a personally popular leader.

The Hillary Clinton comparison is apt.

 

[adamyyc]

I wish the Alberta Party could get a little more footing in the province.

 

[Silence&Motion]

I wish the Alberta Party could get a little more footing in the province.

I get that any two-party contest creates an inherent desire for a third party that splits the difference. But in terms of actual policies, what is the space between the UCP and the NDP that the AP could occupy? I don't see how the AP does anything other than split the vote with the NDP, much like is happening between the LPO and the ONDP in Ontario right now. There's a reason the Alberta Liberal Party ended up moving to the left of the Alberta NDP. There's not a lot of room in the centre that's not currently being covered by the UCP or NDP.