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Urban Development and Proposals Discussion

Dārayavauš said:
Bit out of the loop on downtown and the population growth, but I just read that Calgarys Downtowns population grew from 38,663 in 2016 to 46,763 in 2021. That’s quite impressive, especially considering the downturn we experienced. I’m assuming the population now would be closer to 50,000 in 2025.

The numbers above reflect the Greater Downtown neighbourhoods
  • Downtown Core
  • Downtown West
  • Eau Claire
  • Chinatown
  • East Village
  • The Beltline
Given this number predates a lot of office conversions that will increase the number of residential units in the downtown core alone, plus with the Central Station and Events Centre getting built out in Victoria Park with the master plan and rapid growth, what is the population going to reach in the next 25 years by 2050?

Do you think it will be getting close to 75,000?

Not sure if there is an official plan on what the population target by 2050 is, but that’s my conservative projection. What does everyone think?
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I definitely think the development of the Rivers District will definitely play a major role in the growth of Greater Downtown. Once Scotia Place is complete- just think of all the opportunities for development in the area. The Beltline too will play a major role.

75K is a good estimate- I would argue as high as 83K if we were really pushing it.
 
RolleyMakr_168 said:
I definitely think the development of the Rivers District will definitely play a major role in the growth of Greater Downtown. Once Scotia Place is complete- just think of all the opportunities for development in the area. The Beltline too will play a major role.

75K is a good estimate- I would argue as high as 83K if we were really pushing it.
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Can’t wait to see all the development that will come downtown. Lots more vibrancy on the horizon.

Wouldn’t mind seeing the numbers even higher, but I doubt that will happen 😂
 
I'd guess considerably above 50 k now honestly, given the growth between 2016 and 21. The downtown population definitely increased more in the last 4 years than it did then. I'd bet about 53 - 54,000.
 
Hard to tell what the DT and Beltline population would be today but I would bet easily over 50K.

Here's the changes individually for each core neighborhood from 2016 to 2021. Interestingly enough EV and Downtown CC actually lost people, but the others especially the Beltline had solid growth.


Beltline 21958 - 25880 (16985)
Downtown Commercial Core 8758 - 8225 (4925)
Downtown West 2344 - 2825 (1625)
Downtown EV 3242 - 3140 (2110)
Chinatown 2104 - 2250 (1145)
Eau Claire 1666 - 1875 (1135)
38,663 in 2016 to 46,763 and a total of 36,170 residential units in 2021, which works out to roughly 1.3 people per unit.

I can't think of any new buildings for Chinatown or Eau Claire since 2021, but there are a few for the other neighborhoods,
EV
- Arris 3rd and 5th west tower (337 units)
Core
- Sierra Place (108 units)
- Cornerstone (112 units)
Downtown West End
- West Village towers (554 units)
Beltline
- BLVD (650 units)
- Nude (177 units)
- Park Central (462)
- Hat @ 14th (239 units)
- Oliver East tower (405 units)
- UPTEN (277 units)
- West Tenth 1400 (106 units)
11th + 11th (369 units)

......and going by the addition of 3,796 units and a rough estimate1.3 people per unit, we get 4,935 people, a conservative estimate which puts us well over 50K :cool: I say conservative estimate because the greater downtown grew by 8,100 people from 2016 to 2021 with less development. The true population is probably closer to @UrbanWarrior prediction of 54K.

A couple of things to note. Not all of those buildings are full, and conversely I didn't add buildings that were opening up around census time Redstone (137) or Telus Sky ( 326) 935 5th (66 units) also I didn't add Oliver II and its 461 units as it's only recently opened. Another factor would be how many people may have taken on roommates in this time of increased rent prices. I don't know anyone personally who has but have seen it mentioned a lot on social media.
 
CBBarnett said:
This part jumped out to me:

Purchase price was $46,500,000, according to commercial real estate brokerage Avison Young, who brokered the sale on behalf of GWL Realty Advisors, which acquired the property from the Bank of Montreal in 2005 for a reported $188 million.​

Seems like some more realistic valuations of office buildings are helping spur some more opportunities. It's been a long time waiting for those over-priced buildings to water down to something that transacts. Exciting to watch a new era in downtown get (slowly) started.
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It’s pretty shocking looking at the price difference, but talking to my brother in law about it he says the $46 mil was GWOs break even price given the lease revenue over the years.
 
Surrealplaces said:
.....and going by the addition of 3,796 units and a rough estimate1.3 people per unit, we get 4,935 people, a conservative estimate which puts us well over 50K :cool: I say conservative estimate because the greater downtown grew by 8,100 people from 2016 to 2021 with less development. The true population is probably closer to @UrbanWarrior prediction of 54K.
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The development from 2016 to 2021 would be about the same or more than 2021-now no? There were a few that came online during that time.
Underwood, Versus, Mark on 10th, Waterfront, Arris East, The Hat EV, Park Point, Guardian, SOHO, The Royal, 1215 and I think Smith and or Drake as well as Arch and Aura were built in that time frame.
 
I'm curious the occupancy rate of the residential units in TelusSky. We looked at them when the building opened and they were priced extremely high and had weird layouts. I kind of figured they would have a hard time filling them.
 
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Patrick.1980 said:
The development from 2016 to 2021 would be about the same or more than 2021-now no? There were a few that came online during that time.
Underwood, Versus, Mark on 10th, Waterfront, Arris East, The Hat EV, Park Point, Guardian, SOHO, The Royal, 1215 and I think Smith and or Drake as well as Arch and Aura were built in that time frame.
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I forgot about a some of those towers. Arch and Aura were done before the 2016 and Mark on 10th finished just before the time of the 2016 census. I'm too lazy to check the exact number of units, but I suspect it's pretty close between both periods. I think 8K growth between 2021 and now is probably pretty close. By the time of the next census in July 2026 It'll be even higher with a few other projects totalling 890 units coming online by then. There may be some other office conversions added to the list also, but it's hard to tell the timelines. These are the ones we know should be competed by July 2026.
4th Street Lofts - 270
Eau Claire I - 90
Riverside - 52
First and Park - 211
The Broward - 152
AHC 6th Ave - 70
EV 606 - 44

Edit: Curiosity got the best of me and I decided to look at the total number of units that came online between 2016 and 2021. I don't have numbers for Anthem's Waterfront, but the total project was 1000 units, and I'll guestimate 500 units for the second phase completed after the 2016 census.

Underwood 225
Hat ev 221
Versus 444
The royal 223
Park point 289
Guardians 640
Sodo 390
1215 137
Mark on 10th 274
Arris east 242
Waterfront phase II 500

The total comes to 3580, so pretty close to the 3796 units added from 2021 to 2024. What's interesting is the number of people went up 8,100 along with 3,580 units, which is 2.62 persons per unit - double the overall average. I wonder if that's due to more children? Maybe more people having roommates, due to more rental properties coming on-line? Unfortunately I don't have demographic numbers from 2016 to compare to.
 
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Another new one...DP in for a 126 unit project along south side of 17th. Address is 121 17 AV SE. Good use of a mid-block site IMO with a decent amount of ground level retail proposed.

1736184752625.png
 
Albertasaurus said:
Another new one...DP in for a 126 unit project along south side of 17th. Address is 121 17 AV SE. Good use of a mid-block site IMO with a decent amount of ground level retail proposed.

View attachment 623713
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Good to see more retail frontage moving eastward on 17th.
 
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