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Urban Development and Proposals Discussion

trtcttc said:
I doubt anyone is betting on an office boom, that'd be a pretty terrible strategy considering offices are down significantly all over North America. Calgary had some recovery years from the oil collapse and that's only brought us marginally down to 29% vacancy with essentially no new build coming to market. Not sure what catalyst could possibly lead to an office boom.
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Boom was the wrong choice of word. The purchase prices are so heavily devalued For FCC and BVS that a modest recovery with vacancies dropping to the mid to high teens would positively affect valuation. Armoyan is the majority stakeholder in Slate which is teetering on insolvency so he needs a recovery in commercial property valuations in any case.

This real estate investment fund buys low and sells high. They make minimal improvements to increase property values. They don't develop and they have never built anything as big and costly as a 65 storey tower. They will seek approval from the federal housing initiatives if there is any seriousness.
 
maestro said:
Boom was the wrong choice of word. The purchase prices are so heavily devalued For FCC and BVS that a modest recovery with vacancies dropping to the mid to high teens would positively affect valuation. Armoyan is the majority stakeholder in Slate which is teetering on insolvency so he needs a recovery in commercial property valuations in any case.

This real estate investment fund buys low and sells high. They make minimal improvements to increase property values. They don't develop and they have never built anything as big and costly as a 65 storey tower. They will seek approval from the federal housing initiatives if there is any seriousness.
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How high was vacancies in BVS and FCC? They took their leasing sites down after they got bought. Without making improvements, wouldn't it be hard to see leasing increase, considering many other buildings are starting renovations.
 
maestro said:
Boom was the wrong choice of word. The purchase prices are so heavily devalued For FCC and BVS that a modest recovery with vacancies dropping to the mid to high teens would positively affect valuation. Armoyan is the majority stakeholder in Slate which is teetering on insolvency so he needs a recovery in commercial property valuations in any case.

This real estate investment fund buys low and sells high. They make minimal improvements to increase property values. They don't develop and they have never built anything as big and costly as a 65 storey tower. They will seek approval from the federal housing initiatives if there is any seriousness.
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I don't think I see a world where another office tower is built, likely for another few decades that isn't medical office like the one across from the new Cancer Centre.
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That is a ton of office space and there is just so much AA and A space I just don't see why anyone would build until these numbers are at least half of what they are today. Even Suncor looking at that Stephen Avenue Quarter site decided to negotiate to stay put and renovate.

I think we'll be in a world where office to residential or hotel conversions and residential development will be the driver's of development downtown for at least another decade to come, if not longer. Doubtful we will see very tall development happening in these cycles, I think what we'll see is a lot of under-utilized lots (surface parking lots, primarily) filled in with residential development of modest heights, similarly to what happened in Downtown, False Creek/Yaletown , Coal Harbour through 1990-2015.

We'll be a much better City in that residential-heavy development model anyways, so I could care less if they build another office tower ever again haha. And even if they do new office so that people can newer or more differentiated spaces, I hope they are mid-rise and Mass Timber like this:
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That way new office isn't over-delivered in a single huge building and the AAA office could have differentiated spaces from what's currently available. Would be a better model of delivering new office space that is more responsive and sensitive to market conditions, without drastically oversupplying office as we've done in the past.
 
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trtcttc said:
How high was vacancies in BVS and FCC? They took their leasing sites down after they got bought. Without making improvements, wouldn't it be hard to see leasing increase, considering many other buildings are starting renovations.
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No clue. Declining overall vacancy and positive absorption (the decline doesn't all have to come from positive absorption) will raise these deflated values.
 
Calgcouver said:
I don't think I see a world where another office tower is built, likely for another few decades that isn't medical office like the one across from the new Cancer Centre.
View attachment 614107
View attachment 614108

That is a ton of office space and there is just so much AA and A space I just don't see why anyone would build until these numbers are at least half of what they are today. Even Suncor looking at that Stephen Avenue Quarter site decided to negotiate to stay put and renovate.

I think we'll be in a world where office to residential or hotel conversions and residential development will be the driver's of development downtown for at least another decade to come, if not longer. Doubtful we will see very tall development happening in these cycles, I think what we'll see is a lot of under-utilized lots (surface parking lots, primarily) filled in with residential development of modest heights, similarly to what happened in Downtown, False Creek/Yaletown , Coal Harbour through 1990-2015.

We'll be a much better City in that residential-heavy development model anyways, so I could care less if they build another office tower ever again haha.
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My point has been that they are not building anything and that they are banking on the existing office towers which they purchased for a bargain for their growth. An actual developer building anything on the FCC site during the next 25 years won't be building office.

The investor residential market is heating up. It's much hotter than when the first round of conversion projects. Why convert a 10 to 15 storey office building if you can sell out a 35 storey condo? More demolitions replaced with tall towers than conversions as the backbone of residential growth.
 
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If FCC residential tower happens then the lot, where Brookfield Place 2 was going to be built, would be developed as a residential tower too.
 
From CMLC:
Two CMLC-owned parcels just east of the Central Library have been sold to Bankside Properties partnering with Sumus Property Group. Two 6-story residential buildings with 80 rental units each will mirror each other, permits to be submitted by the end of 2024, ground breaking Q4 of 2025.

Another parcel that was the Bounce Games Park has been conditionally sold, more details to come in 2025.

Another parcel at 4th Ave and Macleod Trail SE has a Trico Homes Development Permit for 255 residential units and three commercial units, construction is expected to begin in Spring 2025.

Finally, the parcel just north of Studio Bell is in the land-use pre-application phase! Approximately 500 residential units over two phases. They say, depending on market conditions, DP could be submitted in Spring 2025.
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We anticipate the construction start of more than 400 units next year and a total of 900 homes to follow in the coming years.”

Additionally, Alston Properties is nearing completion on construction of EV606, its 44-unit riverfront rental property and main floor retail offering, and leasing is underway. Occupancy is anticipated for Q1 2025. BOSA Development has also sold approximately 177 of their available condo units at Arris Residences, and are actively selling the remaining 200 units. In late 2022, we also announced partnerships with ONE Properties for two new mixed-use towers on Q Block, and with Minto Properties for a 100-unit development along RiverWalk.

No real news on the Q block or Minto development, just a reminder of the deals from 2022.
 
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Would love to see Trico's project go forward, that part of downtown badly needs an injection of activity. Surprised that they want to move forward in the spring, to be honest I had totally forgotten about that project. If I recall correctly it's a pair of 20-25 storey towers?

Looks like Triovest's site north of Studio Bell is about the same size as Trico's. If that really is gonna be 500 units (ie nearly twice what Trico plans to build), that's going to be a couple of big towers, perhaps close in size/height to Arris?
 
I wonder if these new East Village projects will be zero parking buildings like the N3 building that was built on that street? I assume they will be wood frame above the ground floor given that they're 6 stories. Hopefully they actually get built. Having CMLC announce land sales with zero actual construction activity is getting a bit old.
 
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