Urban Development and Proposals Discussion

[maestro]

I doubt anyone is betting on an office boom, that'd be a pretty terrible strategy considering offices are down significantly all over North America. Calgary had some recovery years from the oil collapse and that's only brought us marginally down to 29% vacancy with essentially no new build coming to market. Not sure what catalyst could possibly lead to an office boom.

Boom was the wrong choice of word. The purchase prices are so heavily devalued For FCC and BVS that a modest recovery with vacancies dropping to the mid to high teens would positively affect valuation. Armoyan is the majority stakeholder in Slate which is teetering on insolvency so he needs a recovery in commercial property valuations in any case.

This real estate investment fund buys low and sells high. They make minimal improvements to increase property values. They don't develop and they have never built anything as big and costly as a 65 storey tower. They will seek approval from the federal housing initiatives if there is any seriousness.

 

[trtcttc]

Boom was the wrong choice of word. The purchase prices are so heavily devalued For FCC and BVS that a modest recovery with vacancies dropping to the mid to high teens would positively affect valuation. Armoyan is the majority stakeholder in Slate which is teetering on insolvency so he needs a recovery in commercial property valuations in any case.

This real estate investment fund buys low and sells high. They make minimal improvements to increase property values. They don't develop and they have never built anything as big and costly as a 65 storey tower. They will seek approval from the federal housing initiatives if there is any seriousness.

How high was vacancies in BVS and FCC? They took their leasing sites down after they got bought. Without making improvements, wouldn't it be hard to see leasing increase, considering many other buildings are starting renovations.

 

[Calgcouver]

Boom was the wrong choice of word. The purchase prices are so heavily devalued For FCC and BVS that a modest recovery with vacancies dropping to the mid to high teens would positively affect valuation. Armoyan is the majority stakeholder in Slate which is teetering on insolvency so he needs a recovery in commercial property valuations in any case.

This real estate investment fund buys low and sells high. They make minimal improvements to increase property values. They don't develop and they have never built anything as big and costly as a 65 storey tower. They will seek approval from the federal housing initiatives if there is any seriousness.

I don't think I see a world where another office tower is built, likely for another few decades that isn't medical office like the one across from the new Cancer Centre.

That is a ton of office space and there is just so much AA and A space I just don't see why anyone would build until these numbers are at least half of what they are today. Even Suncor looking at that Stephen Avenue Quarter site decided to negotiate to stay put and renovate.

I think we'll be in a world where office to residential or hotel conversions and residential development will be the driver's of development downtown for at least another decade to come, if not longer. Doubtful we will see very tall development happening in these cycles, I think what we'll see is a lot of under-utilized lots (surface parking lots, primarily) filled in with residential development of modest heights, similarly to what happened in Downtown, False Creek/Yaletown , Coal Harbour through 1990-2015.

We'll be a much better City in that residential-heavy development model anyways, so I could care less if they build another office tower ever again haha. And even if they do new office so that people can newer or more differentiated spaces, I hope they are mid-rise and Mass Timber like this:

That way new office isn't over-delivered in a single huge building and the AAA office could have differentiated spaces from what's currently available. Would be a better model of delivering new office space that is more responsive and sensitive to market conditions, without drastically oversupplying office as we've done in the past.

 

[maestro]

How high was vacancies in BVS and FCC? They took their leasing sites down after they got bought. Without making improvements, wouldn't it be hard to see leasing increase, considering many other buildings are starting renovations.

No clue. Declining overall vacancy and positive absorption (the decline doesn't all have to come from positive absorption) will raise these deflated values.

 

[maestro]

I don't think I see a world where another office tower is built, likely for another few decades that isn't medical office like the one across from the new Cancer Centre.
View attachment 614107
View attachment 614108

That is a ton of office space and there is just so much AA and A space I just don't see why anyone would build until these numbers are at least half of what they are today. Even Suncor looking at that Stephen Avenue Quarter site decided to negotiate to stay put and renovate.

I think we'll be in a world where office to residential or hotel conversions and residential development will be the driver's of development downtown for at least another decade to come, if not longer. Doubtful we will see very tall development happening in these cycles, I think what we'll see is a lot of under-utilized lots (surface parking lots, primarily) filled in with residential development of modest heights, similarly to what happened in Downtown, False Creek/Yaletown , Coal Harbour through 1990-2015.

We'll be a much better City in that residential-heavy development model anyways, so I could care less if they build another office tower ever again haha.

My point has been that they are not building anything and that they are banking on the existing office towers which they purchased for a bargain for their growth. An actual developer building anything on the FCC site during the next 25 years won't be building office.

The investor residential market is heating up. It's much hotter than when the first round of conversion projects. Why convert a 10 to 15 storey office building if you can sell out a 35 storey condo? More demolitions replaced with tall towers than conversions as the backbone of residential growth.

 

[Morshed]

If FCC residential tower happens then the lot, where Brookfield Place 2 was going to be built, would be developed as a residential tower too.

 

[darwink]

If FCC residential tower happens then the lot, where Brookfield Place 2 was going to be built, would be developed as a residential tower too.

No existing foundation there