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The Great Canadian Tariff Thread

darwink said:
Some more pro-oil words from the Prime Minister:


The Quebec line, is in line with what Poilievre says in french, when talking about respecting Quebec's jurisdiction. Or at very least, that is how people hear it.

On environmental assessments:
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The fact there's a nationalized pipeline company is also a benefit here... Probably wishful thinking but a national project for national benefit sounds exactly like something they should be doing.
 
CalgaryTiger said:
The fact there's a nationalized pipeline company is also a benefit here... Probably wishful thinking but a national project for national benefit sounds exactly like something they should be doing.
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Build then (eventually) flip. Just like the housing development company. Private capital is there, they just don't want the risk. Could even assemble the eventual investor group on the front end, somewhat like the Canada Infrastructure Bank. Not that you want to miss a year due to financial engineering! It seems this government is more in the build things by assembling the minimum viable business case, then figure out the rest later.

Which if it gets things done, yeah, this neoliberal shill who thinks most things should be P3s to avoid bad decision making, I guess yay 'big' government?
 
Surrealplaces said:
Is it the most efficient? maybe not, but that's probably the difference between getting it done and it not getting done.
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The biggest risk are true white elephant projects. But if we delay every project for 5 years of review to avoid the chance of a white elephant, how many projects are we missing out on, how much extra are we spending to finance all that process?

The waste projects, as long as we can screen for show stoppingly bad projects which should be pretty obvious with cursory (but still detailed) analysis, might end up 'paying for themselves'.

Our processes are set up to avoid things like the Don Getty stimulus and diversification projects, things like the BC Fast Ferries. The thing is, analysis was they were wastes even then. We just slowed things down enough to try to let lack of enthusiasm kill them, not bad economics. The economics were always bad.

As long as there is someone sane at the wheel, what is the worst that can happen? Too much new housing? Too much optionality for exporting Alberta's oil? Too much rail export capacity? Are we going to be mad about some waste/subsidy of those things? Given what we've experienced over the last 20 years and the USA turning into an unreliable partner?
 
darwink said:
The biggest risk are true white elephant projects. But if we delay every project for 5 years of review to avoid the chance of a white elephant, how many projects are we missing out on, how much extra are we spending to finance all that process?

The waste projects, as long as we can screen for show stoppingly bad projects which should be pretty obvious with cursory (but still detailed) analysis, might end up 'paying for themselves'.

Our processes are set up to avoid things like the Don Getty stimulus and diversification projects, things like the BC Fast Ferries. The thing is, analysis was they were wastes even then. We just slowed things down enough to try to let lack of enthusiasm kill them, not bad economics. The economics were always bad.

As long as there is someone sane at the wheel, what is the worst that can happen? Too much new housing? Too much optionality for exporting Alberta's oil? Too much rail export capacity? Are we going to be mad about some waste/subsidy of those things? Given what we've experienced over the last 20 years and the USA turning into an unreliable partner?
Click to expand...
For the life span of that pipe it will be used. Maybe we won't always do now what we do with oil but surely we'll do something with it.

There's no way we'll get to a point of Evergrande housing overbuilds. The housing crown corp won't be building market housing and even so, they can always slow their roll.
 
CalgaryTiger said:
For the life span of that pipe it will be used. Maybe we won't always do now what we do with oil but surely we'll do something with it.
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The Enbridge mainline to the usa was down to 20% utilization by the late 70s.
CalgaryTiger said:
The housing crown corp won't be building market housing and even so
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I believe the plan is they will be. That is what the WHA did. Well, at least that once produced, the product will not be shielded from market forces in a submarket.
 
CalgaryTiger said:
For the life span of that pipe it will be used. Maybe we won't always do now what we do with oil but surely we'll do something with it.
Click to expand...
As an aside re: pipelines, I found this fascinating - although it's probably old news to the better informed:

I just learned that we've done all this Canada east-west pipeline debate before, when we built the TransCanada gas pipeline in the 1950s. It's all the same debates - an economically more profitable/easier route via USA vs. a more costly but Canadian-controlled route via Canada. It's the exact same debate on strategic interests and level of American influence in the economy.

The Liberals wanted the Canadian route and were in power at the time. They rammed the funding and approval of the pipeline through parliament so they didn't miss a construction season (which was later missed anyways due to a strike). The Conservatives used the whole affair as example of Liberal overreach in parliament and ultimately used this messaging to help win the next election defeating the Liberals.
https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Pipeline_Debate

Tariffs aren't the only old idea being recycled it seems!
 
boereport.com

Western Canada Select heavy crude discount widens | BOE Report

The discount of Western Canada Select (WCS) heavy crude to the North American benchmark West Texas Intermediate futures (WTI) widened on Tuesday. WCS for May delivery in Hardisty, Alberta, settled at $10.10 a barrel under WTI, according to brokerage CalRock, after having settled at $9.15 under...
boereport.com boereport.com
Different settled at just over $10 USD.
 
Mountain Man said:
Tariffs on pause again, what a shit show! Tariffs on China going up to 125% cause they refuse to bend the knee to the deranged Cheeto.

Actually just read that there is a 10% tariff on Canada and Mexico again.
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Tariffs are off except the base 10%. Seems like that's where they wanted to end up. But instead of levying 10%, they levy 45%, then bring it down to 10%. Nothing will happen in the short term because the US is still the largest consumer, but longer term declines happen gradually and I just can't see global players trusting the US like they did in 2020-2024, especially on curtailing China.
 
Mountain Man said:
Apparently the 10% tariff will not apply to Canada and Mexico now lol. This has to be the dumbest shit I've seen a world leader do...
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Yeap and it is exactly the reason the Canada government should sit on the sidelines and wait until the clown show is over. Too bad the election campaign has focused on a red herring rather than real issues
 
Mountain Man said:
Hopefully less that 2 years when the Democrats sweep mid terms and take control of pretty much everything away from Trump.
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The US system more or less guarantees perpetual campaigns. Enough sitting members of Congress and the Senate will face the wrath of increased prices and job losses to fear for their own re-election. I'm guessing it will take a few months for the tariffs to be rolled back. Nothing, not even Trump, gets in the way of American consumption.
 
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