News   Apr 03, 2020
 6.1K     1 
News   Apr 02, 2020
 7.7K     3 
News   Apr 02, 2020
 4.6K     0 

The Great Canadian Tariff Thread

So is our energy not compliant? Haven't heard anything about that during this whole debacle....
You have to track it from well head to delivery point. Plus the origin of diluent, even if the diluent has been reused many times, you might not even know where it comes from. So if your 500,000 barrel delivery came from 20 different oil companies, you need 20 different paper trails.
 
I'm sure many are in the same boat today... it's kind of something to inherit a booming economy and shoot yourself in the foot in a way that destroys your economy more than any other country that they levied tariffs on. Chinese markets closed less than 1% down. America's economy is strong relative to a singular country, but to have the audacity to think they can tariff the entire world at once is some hubris. I feel for those near retirement, but those that aren't, this may be best long term. If the economy really turns on Trumps watch, maybe we can get rid of him once and for all. Democrats are polling terribly in the US, but we see with the Libs here, sometimes it just takes an Obama or Carney to turn things around.
 
From a high level simplistic view, is this recent drop in price for WCS, more or less the price coming down so the purchasing price stays the same for the US buyers?
1743788202734.png
 
From a high level simplistic view, is this recent drop in price for WCS, more or less the price coming down so the purchasing price stays the same for the US buyers?
View attachment 641541
Partially, but the real recent downward pressure on oil is the new expectation of a collapse of oil demand globally triggered by the massive unilateral tariff policy of the Americans and expected counter-tariffs. Everyone is now thinking global recession is incoming and global oil prices are cratering (along with most other things).
 
An important article:

Some quotes:
“Yes, we would like to see a positive FID from LNG Canada 2,” Jonathan Wilkinson, the natural resources and energy minister, said in an interview.
The minister outlined a series of west coast projects that he said would - if all were built - make Canada the fifth biggest LNG exporter in the world, allowing it to find buyers for 50% of the gas it currently sends exclusively to the US. They included LNG Canada, as well as Cedar LNG and Woodfibre LNG.
There’s a debate about shipping that oil from the western province of Alberta to Canada’s east coast. Such a pipeline is “on the table,” but a “very challenging route,” Wilkinson said, citing companies he’s spoken with, because it would take a long time and cost C$40 billion to C$50 billion, probably require significant federal government financial support
An easier first step in increasing Canada’s oil-export capacity would be to upgrade the Trans Mountain pipeline that runs from Alberta to the British Columbia coast, Wilkinson said. Modifications would help the pipeline carry an additional 200,000 to 300,000 barrels a day. Trans Mountain Corp., which is owned by the government, is looking at that, Wilkinson said.
Canada is assessing other options to reduce its reliance on a section of pipeline that goes through the US Midwest before reentering Canada through Ontario. That may include bringing more oil in from Newfoundland to ports in Atlantic Canada and Montreal, or moving some through existing infrastructure from Quebec into Ontario, he said.
 
Interesting video on Trump's tariffs. The title implies his tariff will work, but the people in the video don't necessarily say that they will. If you've ever wondered where these ideas came from it helps explain what they think his logic is and talk about a couple of key people behind his logic..
As far as his attack on Canada, with the tariffs and 51state comments etc, it doesn't get into that. I think it's Trump being Trump, maybe his dislike for Trudeau.

 
From a high level simplistic view, is this recent drop in price for WCS, more or less the price coming down so the purchasing price stays the same for the US buyers?
View attachment 641541
It's the decline of global oil prices, Canadian oil is actually holding its price much better than global benchmarks. WCS/WTI (US/Global Benchmark) is actually at it's narrowest in a while. As of now, WTI is about $60.92 and WCS is $52.57, discount of $8.35. For context, this was the Budget 2025 differential forecast,

1744043592488.png


Some reasons for the sub $9 differential. It's further indication that if we build more pipelines, the price differential will be lowered, WCS prices would rise. When global prices fall, demand for pipeline drops, increasing our capacity of pipelines relative to demand. Now when demand recovers, our capacity relative to demand falls, increasing the price differential.
 
WTI is about $60.92 and WCS is $52.57
WTI ten minutes ago was $60.81. WCS 13 hours ago was $49.64. Settling to its regular, but still good range.
Now when demand recovers, our capacity relative to demand falls, increasing the price differential.
The marginal pipeline is TMX, which has higher tolls. The marginal barrel on TMX also is going into a tanker, where you have that cost too, but then it is priced near Maya so it offsets a bit.

So a complicated thing. At least don't have to throw tariffs into the mix just yet. (but we might, if the trade surplus comes back which it might)
 
Some more pro-oil words from the Prime Minister:

Quebec uses 350,000 on average barrels of oil a day, 70 per cent of which comes from the U.S. There is a big advantage to Canada to push that out, use our own oil, use the resources from that for other things, including protecting our environments (and) our social programs.
we will only do that in the case where we have the support of First Nations (and) we have the support of all the provinces, obviously including Quebec in the example that I gave.
The Quebec line, is in line with what Poilievre says in french, when talking about respecting Quebec's jurisdiction. Or at very least, that is how people hear it.

On environmental assessments:
“Yes, we are open to having one project, one review, to speed these projects of national interest, but that’s because we have confidence in the environmental standards in this case of the province of Quebec.”
 

Back
Top