News   Apr 03, 2020
 5.7K     1 
News   Apr 02, 2020
 7.4K     3 
News   Apr 02, 2020
 4.4K     0 

Statscan numbers

Population growth is somewhat tied to housing starts. It doesn't follow the trend exactly, but it's close. With the strong numbers we've seen over the past 11 months, Calgary will have strong population growth to go with it.
Calgary's housing starts are 58% higher than Edmonton's and 62% higher than Ottawa's. My prediction is Calgary's population growth will be about 40-50% higher than Edmonton's and about 50-55% higher than Ottawa's for 2023.
I wonder what Alberta's population growth of inter-prov migration and international migration will be for 2023? If comparing loosely to housing starts, Calgary has had 57% of the provinces housing starts in 2023. If Calgary had roughly 57% of the population growth it would be huge.
 
I wonder what Alberta's population growth of inter-prov migration and international migration will be for 2023? If comparing loosely to housing starts, Calgary has had 57% of the provinces housing starts in 2023. If Calgary had roughly 57% of the population growth it would be huge.
It will be interesting to watch how growth is concentrating in Alberta - it's no secret that the major metro regions collect the vast majority of growth for decades, but I would be curious if that curve actually steepens in the near term where they collect even more than their long run average. For more recent history with good data, Red Deer hardly grew between the 2016 and 2021 census, Lethbridge was more notable at 5.5% over that period. Calgary (6.4%) and Edmonton (7.3%) for comparison.

The recent population boom appears to concentrate in the major cities even more so, so may be a while - or ever - if we see a trickling into the smaller cities. Most cities and town in the next tier of Albertan urban spaces don't have big draws for retirement or remote work either (whether or not those trends end up being material or not overall is still debated). With few major draws, their growth is still connected to their role as a regional service centre, fickle extraction industries, and for those cities reasonably close to the major metros - a level of relative affordability.
 
It will be interesting to watch how growth is concentrating in Alberta - it's no secret that the major metro regions collect the vast majority of growth for decades, but I would be curious if that curve actually steepens in the near term where they collect even more than their long run average. For more recent history with good data, Red Deer hardly grew between the 2016 and 2021 census, Lethbridge was more notable at 5.5% over that period. Calgary (6.4%) and Edmonton (7.3%) for comparison.

The recent population boom appears to concentrate in the major cities even more so, so may be a while - or ever - if we see a trickling into the smaller cities. Most cities and town in the next tier of Albertan urban spaces don't have big draws for retirement or remote work either (whether or not those trends end up being material or not overall is still debated). With few major draws, their growth is still connected to their role as a regional service centre, fickle extraction industries, and for those cities reasonably close to the major metros - a level of relative affordability.
Red Deer may come back in the 5 year period from 2021-2026, as the previous period they were heavily hit by the crash of the oil and gas industry. How much they come back and for how long, it's hard to say. Lethbridge definitely has a good steady growth trend, and it wouldn't surprise me to see it keep going. To your point though, I agree, the growth will probably be heavily centered on the 4 main metros. Even as O&G declines, Red Deer will probably do okay over the long haul.
 
For international immigration especially, the big cities (especially Calgary) far out-draw the rest of the province for several reasons - the province's primary gateway city, the most established ethnic enclaves, etc. The rise in the cost of living is near inconsequential when considering the relative affordability when compared to other big cities both in Canada and in other countries.

For domestic migrants moving from other big cities (Toronto, Vancouver, Ottawa) or even small and midsize ones (Kitchener, Kamloops, Victoria) - Calgary and Edmonton are still a great deal. Telling someone from Southern Ontario that they can get cheaper housing in Red Deer likely isn't an issue when their housing costs are already cut in half by moving to Calgary.

There's also a greater level of financial security to moving to a big centre - less chance your house value will plummet or you'll lose your job if there's a resource crash. More job opportunities overall. Easier connections to wherever you came from. When we moved to AB we only considered the 2 main cities.
 
Housing starts for 2023.

CitySingle Family HomeSemi DetachedRow HousingApartmentTotal....................................
Toronto472132848603751947428
Vancouver283291419222757633244
Calgary587516742996903419579
Montreal10212083421366415235
Edmonton50329482069513513184
Ottawa/Gatineau18583041727810411993
Winnipeg142536646831955454
 

Back
Top