darwink
Senior Member
Negative 1 million over the next 2 years for Non permanent residents. Should leave population growth flat.
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Statscan numbers
- Thread starter kora
- Start date
CalgaryTiger
Senior Member
Not to pour cold water on this but I would suspect the dramatic collapse that you mention will not materialize. Or at the very least not to the degree you think. There is evidence that those new targets will not be met as there are still a lot of people coming to Canada.
Canada could miss some targets in reducing immigration: Desjardins - National | Globalnews.ca
The report from Desjardins suggests though the influx in temporary residents have slowed, the current number coming into the country will prevent Canada from meeting its target.
globalnews.ca
"Desjardins estimated new non-permanent resident permit holders dropped by 25 per cent year-over-year in the final quarter of 2024, but the total number rose almost 40,000, amounting to about 100,000 more than what it or the federal government had previously forecast."
This likely won't get any mention during the campaign but it would be interesting to know where the CPC and LPC stand.
"What’s yet to be seen is how outside pressure could change the targets of the government, with Desjardins noting corporate Canada has expressed concerns about labour shortages. The report suggests these corporate organizations could put pressure on Ottawa to “moderate” some of its policies, in part due to high job vacancies in some industries."
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CBBarnett
Senior Member
Maybe it has something to do with methodologies of Statscan and others to create this data, but the same dataset that we've been talking about says the net number of non-permanent residents is down nearly 30,000 in Q4 2024. So Statscan data doesn't align with the article.Not to pour cold water on this but I would suspect the dramatic collapse that you mention will not materialize. Or at the very least not to the degree you think. There is evidence that those new targets will not be met as there are still a lot of people coming to Canada.
Canada could miss some targets in reducing immigration: Desjardins - National | Globalnews.ca
The report from Desjardins suggests though the influx in temporary residents have slowed, the current number coming into the country will prevent Canada from meeting its target.
"Desjardins estimated new non-permanent resident permit holders dropped by 25 per cent year-over-year in the final quarter of 2024, but the total number rose almost 40,000, amounting to about 100,000 more than what it or the federal government had previously forecast."
This likely won't get any mention during the campaign but it would be interesting to know where the CPC and LPC stand.
"What’s yet to be seen is how outside pressure could change the targets of the government, with Desjardins noting corporate Canada has expressed concerns about labour shortages. The report suggests these corporate organizations could put pressure on Ottawa to “moderate” some of its policies, in part due to high job vacancies in some industries."
Whether or not that decline meets the government's target is a question, but the total number of non-permanent appears to be decreasing, not increasing. This population loss will be offset by continued permanent immigration, but will result in a wash - minimal population growth nationally for a while. There also appears to be some level of seasonality to immigration numbers so will probably not be consistency quarter-to-quarter.
CalgaryTiger
Senior Member
My reading of the data is they acknowledge the Q4 2024 drop but say that the numbers still exceed forecasts. I think the point is, you can say you want to do something but it might not be as easy as you say.
JesseLikesCities
Active Member
Calgary at 1,778,881 at the end of 2024 and according to population clock Alberta to hit 5 million in the middle of May.
www150.statcan.gc.ca
Population estimates, July 1, by census metropolitan area and census agglomeration, 2021 boundaries
Annual population estimates as of July 1st, by census metropolitan area and census agglomeration, single year of age, five-year age group and gender, based on the Standard Geographical Classification (SGC) 2021.
UrbanWarrior
Senior Member
That's actually the July 2024 estimates, so that would put us well past 1.8 million at the moment, around 1.85 million. Even with slower growth, the Calgary CMA will surpass 2 million by 2029 save some unforeseen calamity.Calgary at 1,778,881 at the end of 2024 and according to population clock Alberta to hit 5 million in the middle of May.
Population estimates, July 1, by census metropolitan area and census agglomeration, 2021 boundaries
Annual population estimates as of July 1st, by census metropolitan area and census agglomeration, single year of age, five-year age group and gender, based on the Standard Geographical Classification (SGC) 2021.
potatopizzafan
Active Member
Incredible first post
I think that can be summed up in one word: Trump.
Even with Trump causing chaos, I think you're right, it's quite possible to pass 2 Million by 2029.
If housing starts are an indication of how things are going, Calgary is still going strong into 2025, with Calgary once again the top metro for housing starts. Here are the March numbers.
and for Q1 2025
| City | SFH | semi | row | apartment | total | |||
| Calgary | 455 | 154 | 274 | 1352 | 2235 | |||
| Montreal | 60 | 14 | 39 | 1817 | 1930 | |||
| Vancouver | 135 | 72 | 91 | 1125 | 1423 | |||
| Edmonton | 620 | 110 | 134 | 542 | 1404 | |||
| Toronto | 160 | 0 | 405 | 660 | 1225 | |||
| Ott/Gat | 106 | 24 | 136 | 460 | 726 |
and for Q1 2025
| City | SFH | semi | row | apartment | total | |||
| Calgary | 1507 | 568 | 923 | 3273 | 6271 | |||
| Montreal | 213 | 86 | 186 | 4842 | 5327 | |||
| Toronto | 546 | 12 | 677 | 3837 | 5072 | |||
| Vancouver | 403 | 220 | 351 | 3860 | 4834 | |||
| Edmonton | 1488 | 236 | 585 | 1786 | 4095 | |||
| Ott/Gat | 353 | 72 | 374 | 1811 | 2609 |
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CBBarnett
Senior Member
Thanks for posting - it's the row and semi-detached numbers that are most interesting to me as we are the absolute leaders there, far more if you measured per capita or as an overall rate of home production.
More evidence that all the reforms for infills and incrementally higher density products over the past 20 years are really working here.
More evidence that all the reforms for infills and incrementally higher density products over the past 20 years are really working here.
Me too. I like the fact that we have a balance in our housing start types. It's good that apartments make up the largest number, but it's great to see those missing middle type housing types doing well.
I wonder how much can be attributed to the new blanket zoning? I suspect that ma y of the ones going up around the inner city are in part due to the blanket zoning.
JesseLikesCities
Active Member
Even traversing google earth, it's absolutely wild seeing the amount of homes being built in this city. The South as a whole is a beast, The North from Glacier Ridge through Keystone and then up in Cornerstone is booming. Only a matter of time before Chestemere and the city are basically connected and even the amount of new builds in Cochrane, Harmony and Airdrie is off the charts.
Must be really booming. I've never even heard of Keystone, Glacier Ridge or Cornerstone.
Tacom8
New Member
I never realized how ridiculous Calgary's CMA is until looking at that stats can map. Really misses some key bedroom communities. Still, absolutely bonkers growth. The housing builds in both metros is staggering, far exceeding anything i've ever seen in the booms of the last 20 years. We can build the housing, we can infill like there is no tomorrow, we got a lot of good things happening to be proud of. Really feels like we both just coasted over 1M not too long ago, but that is just my mental blind spot that its been 20 years since school.
Here's to 2M in Calgary and Edmonton sometime after.
Here's to 2M in Calgary and Edmonton sometime after.
It's been a crazy couple of decades. I never thought I'd see Alberta hit 5 Million so quickly either.