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Russia/Ukraine Conflict

So far, the Russians have executed poorly, militarily, and the Ukrainian defense has been stronger than anyone expected. Also, the world reaction/outrage and the anti-war sentiment building in Russia, has to be far greater than what Putin expected. The country's economy is going to be crippled and the Russian people will be shunned on all levels. They won't be able to sell/buy anything outside of Russian. They won't be able to travel anywhere. Cultural and sports organizations are already cutting ties with the country.
My fear is that Putin will get impatient and lash out. The Russians have held back using their more lethal weapons (I'm not talking about nuclear either). They have superior airpower and could easily bomb the hell out of Ukraine if they wanted to. It would result in tens, maybe hundreds, of thousands of civilian casualties though. The question is whether Putin cares about anything other than his obsession in bending Ukraine to his will. This week is going to be very telling.
 
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JonnyCanuck said:
So far, the Russians have executed poorly, militarily, and the Ukrainian defense has been stronger than anyone expected. Also, the world reaction/outrage and the anti-war sentiment building in Russia, has to be far greater than what Putin expected. The country's economy is going to be crippled and the Russian people will be shunned on all levels. They won't be able to sell/buy anything outside of Russian. They won't be able to travel anywhere. Cultural and sports organizations are already cutting ties with the country.
My fear is that Putin will get impatient and lash out. The Russians have held back using their more lethal weapons (I'm not talking about nuclear either). They have superior airpower and could easily bomb the hell out of Ukraine if they wanted to. It would result in tens, maybe hundreds, of thousands of civilian casualties though. The question is whether Putin cares about anything other than his obsession in bringing Ukraine to his will. This week is going to be very telling.
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This could end up being a bigger disaster for Russia than I expected. Putin could lash out with bigger weapons, but it looks a lot like guerilla warfare could become a thing. when your an occupying force in a country deploying guerilla warfare, it's a losing situation.
 
The Russians had a lesson in guerrilla warfare in Afghanistan in the 80's that should still be a reminder for some in the military. They eventually cleared out of the country with their tail between their legs.
The difference with Ukraine is that Putin actually thought he and is invading army would be welcomed by most civilians. There are reports by some captured Russian soldiers that they did not expect the population at large to resist. Putin has also said some things to the Russian people to justify this conflict... that Ukraine leaders are 'neo nazis and drug addicts' and that the Ukrainian people needed to be liberated. He is either just making shit up or is delusional. The term 'the country needs to be denatzified' has been used by both he and his foreign minister in the last week.
 
The more I watch this conflict unfold, the more it disturbs me. It disturbs me more than any other conflict that I can remember between two countries. Perhaps it is because media (CNN is the best in coverage IMO) can now give us updates by the minute and in amazing clarity. It is like we are witnessing everything that is going on, first hand and feeling the anguish that the Ukrainians are feeling.
In addition to being greatly disturbed, I feel sadness. We are watching the systematic destruction of a country and it's people. Lives lost, people maimed and injured; homes and infrastructure destroyed, property lost, businesses ruined. All of this for what??? Ukraine did nothing to provoke this. They are defending their country from invaders. We would do the same in Canada ... except we would not be alone in our defense. Other than economic sanctions and the like, sending some supplies; the world is doing virtually nothing to stop this. It is a helpless, empty and shameful feeling to be a human being, knowing this is happening to millions of fellow human beings.
We know that if Russia did not have nuclear weapons, NATO would have stepped in by now. The risk of nuclear conflict in the rest of the world is too great. Putin is secure in that knowledge. Even if Russia is successful in taking over the country and having the Ukraine military and government surrender, they will never win the peace. It will take tens of thousands of soldiers to hold onto the country, on a permanent basis. The Ukrainian people will never accept Russia as their master and there will be resistance for decades. In addition, hundreds of millions of $$$ will have to be spent on rebuilding the country. With both Russian and Ukraine bankrupt, who is going to pay for all that? Is this the end result that Putin had in mind?
 
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JonnyCanuck said:
Even if Russia is successful in taking over the country and having the Ukraine military and government surrender, they will never win the peace. It will take tens of thousands of soldiers to hold onto the country, on a permanent basis. The Ukrainian people will never accept Russia as their master and there will be resistance for decades. In addition, hundreds of millions of $$$ will have to be spent on rebuilding the country. With both Russian and Ukraine bankrupt, who is going to pay for all that? Is this the end result that Putin had in mind?
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Bingo! I think in some ways Putin is smarter than Trump, but in many other ways he's very much the same and is just as stupid. Both are egomaniacs who don't care about the long term effects of their actions, making bad decisions in the process.

Putin is setting Russia back 40 years as he and many others in Russia would like Russia to return to the super power it once was. The reality is, it was only a super power in military and space. Outside of that is was always on the fringe of being a 3rd world country. In today's global economy Russia has failed for the most part, and it's plain to see that military might and oil are the main things keeping them relevant on the world stage.

You're absolutely right. They will occupy a country that doesn't want them there or to be part of Russia. Russia already took one of the most lucrative parts of Ukraine when they took the Crimean area. Ukraine was already in a bad position economically before this happened, suffering years of population drop and economic decline and now it'll be 10 times worse. Russia will essentially be spending a lot of resources and human lives holding onto a country that will have no benefit to Russia in general, only to give it up years later under a different leader.
 
Surrealplaces said:
Bingo! I think in some ways Putin is smarter than Trump, but in many other ways he's very much the same and is just as stupid. Both are egomaniacs who don't care about the long term effects of their actions, making bad decisions in the process.
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A big difference is that Putin is surrounded by sycophantic toadies who are afraid of him, whereas the Trump administration actually had a lot of people who either ignored Trump's orders or explicitly threatened to resign rather than carry them out.

It's really astonishing watching those televised meetings where Putin is openly berating his terrified underlings. It actually inspired me to go back and watch Death of Stalin. I would highly recommend that movie. It is a hilarious and revealing look at what it's like to be within the inner circle of a dictator. (Currently streaming on Crave)
 
So tragic as the rest of world had 7 plus years to head this off. Hard to say where this will go, but I can't see an outcome that doesn't have far reaching impact.

I've always wanted to visit the Black Sea area as my Grandfather was from Odesa and my Grandmother from Simferopol. They were both ethnic Germans with 3-4 generations of history in the area. I remember my Grandmother being a huge Reagan supporter as she hated, hated, hated the Soviet Union and communism.
 
DougB said:
So tragic as the rest of world had 7 plus years to head this off.
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While not perfect, the relative success, the lack of collapse, the situational awareness, the keeping the entire country at risk of ambush - that is 7 plus years of training and military reform right there.
 
DougB said:
So tragic as the rest of world had 7 plus years to head this off. Hard to say where this will go, but I can't see an outcome that doesn't have far reaching impact.

I've always wanted to visit the Black Sea area as my Grandfather was from Odesa and my Grandmother from Simferopol. They were both ethnic Germans with 3-4 generations of history in the area. I remember my Grandmother being a huge Reagan supporter as she hated, hated, hated the Soviet Union and communism.
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I’m not up to speed on the history of the conflict. What happened seven years ago that, And what could the western countries have done differently over the past seven years?
 
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