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Covid-19

We are only a month away from the first day of Stampede. There is a lot of hesitancy right now from the public, sponsors, the business community, bar & restaurant owners. What is this modified Stampede going to look like and how are any the events and celebrations going to be managed with crowds? This is just too soon. It should have been pushed out until later in the summer.
 
Giddy up! I can't recall being this excited for a Stampede. Some of the apprehension is understandable, but it's unfounded based on what we know and what we've seen in other jurisdictions that were able to progress sooner in vaccinating their population and opening up their economy.
 
artvandelay said:
Giddy up! I can't recall being this excited for a Stampede. Some of the apprehension is understandable, but it's unfounded based on what we know and what we've seen in other jurisdictions that were able to progress sooner in vaccinating their population and opening up their economy.
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Could you list some of the jurisdictions that are ahead of us in vaccinations, have had mass events, and the outcomes in terms of deaths or illnesses? I don't know of any.

Israel is ahead of us in vaccinations, and have public events but with vaccine passports -- which is a measure I've never heard one peep of in Alberta. I'd be 110% in favour of the Stampede if it was open only for Albertans who are documented as being fully vaccinated, but if that was the plan, that should have been announced months ago.
The UK is ahead of us in vaccinations, and intend to have a mass public event with the Euro 2020 tournament final, but that's July 11, so that's not informative one way or another.
The US is ahead of us in vaccinations, and is having mass public events, but they continue to have have twice our death rate, so that's an argument against mass events.
Australia is behind us in vaccinations,and they are having mass events on the regular, but they chose a Covid Zero strategy, and we didn't make that choice so that's not relevant.

What do we know, and what have we seen?
 
There is no evidence that says vaccination rates in Canada are, or will be sufficiently safe by July, to enable mass events. On the contrary, many provinces have cancelled summer events all the way to September including K days in Edmonton. . It does not appear that the Calgary Folk Festival as we know it will go on. Apparently they are planning some smaller venues.
It looks to me like the Calgary Stampede will be the first, and perhaps only, large scale event to take place in Canada this summer. Not much is being said as to what the event is going to look like and how other venues (bars & restaurants) are going to integrate with this festival. I have a hard time envisioning how it will look anything like a typical Stampede i.e the fairground packed with people, bars (inside and outside) packed with people. If it is one of the few large scale events this summer, it is going to attract people from other provinces. The percentage of Canadians receiving 2nd doses will still be very low come July. Government needs to start managing expectations soon.
 
They will be pretty close though, and will hopefully only revise upwards. I am confident it will be faster than many expect.

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There have been large events occurring in the US for the past few months, may of them indoor, including a boxing match attended by over 70,000. Despite taking place at a time where US vaccine coverage was similar to where we are now - these did not materially impact COVID infection rates. Note that infection rates in most states are lower than most provinces despite being largely back to business as usual.

Given the high first dose efficacy of the mRNA vaccines, and diminishing returns from second doses, our low second dose coverage is offset by higher coverage in first doses. While it's important for people to get their second dose, they are not a requirement to safely open up, it's simple math.

I understand that there is still a lot of fear and apprehension, we've collectively been through a hell of a time the last 1.5 years. Nobody is forcing anyone to attend the Stampede. However, based on the science available and observed metrics from other jurisdictions, there is no rational or logical reason to delay or cancel an event that is predominantly outdoors. The pandemic is subsiding, the outlook for the energy sector is better than it's been since 2014, our tech sector is picking up, and there is finally a lot of optimism in Calgary - this City deserves a party and this is the time for it!
 
artvandelay said:
There have been large events occurring in the US for the past few months, may of them indoor, including a boxing match attended by over 70,000. Despite taking place at a time where US vaccine coverage was similar to where we are now - these did not materially impact COVID infection rates. Note that infection rates in most states are lower than most provinces despite being largely back to business as usual.

Given the high first dose efficacy of the mRNA vaccines, and diminishing returns from second doses, our low second dose coverage is offset by higher coverage in first doses. While it's important for people to get their second dose, they are not a requirement to safely open up, it's simple math.

I understand that there is still a lot of fear and apprehension, we've collectively been through a hell of a time the last 1.5 years. Nobody is forcing anyone to attend the Stampede. However, based on the science available and observed metrics from other jurisdictions, there is no rational or logical reason to delay or cancel an event that is predominantly outdoors. The pandemic is subsiding, the outlook for the energy sector is better than it's been since 2014, our tech sector is picking up, and there is finally a lot of optimism in Calgary - this City deserves a party and this is the time for it!
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I'm nervous that the B1617 variant will spread if there are no restrictions on indoor social interactions, even with the 75%/25% first/second dose coverage for 12+ that we should have by mid July. Seems prudent to limit large indoor gatherings, particularly through the summer when there are good outdoor alternatives.

However, it also seems very possible to host a Stampede with plenty of good times that is largely outdoors - isn't it the greatest OUTDOOR show on earth? I still don't understand exactly what they have planned but it seems like it can be done.
 
I don't think the U.S. is a great role model for pandemic behaviour. They still have a significant percentage of the population who have not got vaccinated at all. Some states clearly have thrown caution to the wind. It remains to be seen whether that comes back to bite them medium to long term.

Clearly, the provinces are taking a much more measured approach. All except Alberta (which is on a fast track to July) are slowly reopening. We are not going to know for sure until well into summer, what the right approach was, both here and south of the border.

We can call the Stampede an outdoor event as long as people are outdoors. When it rains (which is not unusual) the event quickly turns indoors. Bars are full both indoors and outdoors, if they have a patio. When it rains, all those people go indoors. Add alcohol to the mix and you have most people not caring at all that we are still in a pandemic or whether you, I or they are vaccinated.
 
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zagox said:
I'm nervous that the B1617 variant will spread if there are no restrictions on indoor social interactions, even with the 75%/25% first/second dose coverage for 12+ that we should have by mid July. Seems prudent to limit large indoor gatherings, particularly through the summer when there are good outdoor alternatives.

However, it also seems very possible to host a Stampede with plenty of good times that is largely outdoors - isn't it the greatest OUTDOOR show on earth? I still don't understand exactly what they have planned but it seems like it can be done.
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As long as it stays outdoors things should be okay for the most part. I'm worried that parts of it will be indoors even with reduced numbers of people.
 
Yesterday's numbers looking pretty good.
TUESDAY, JUNE 8, 2021 Alberta Totals: 229,458(+139) Active: 4,431(-276) In Hospital: 336(-15) ICU: 85(-9) Recovered: 222,776(+412) Deaths: 2,251(+3) Positivity Rate: 4.24% R Value (95% CI): 0.74 (0.70-0.77)
As of June 06, 3,084,119 (+26,457/+302,689/+551,976) doses of COVID-19 vaccine have been administered in Alberta. This is 68,986 (+592/+6,771/+12,347) doses per 100,000 population.

covid map for Calgary https://www.reddit.com/user/joliette_le_paz/

HtQsJrheJi0kf-C1xp__ZeD_8ifXuNTBp6nxrpYF4t4.jpg

https://www.reddit.com/r/Calgary/comments/nvfetf/tuesday_june_8_2021_alberta_totals_229458139/​

 
Yes the numbers are definitely tracking in the right direction. Let's hope the Delta variant does not throw a wrench in things.

Back to the Stampede (because the whole country is going to be watching). They just announced that there will be a parade on the grounds on July 9 with no spectators in attendance. You can watch on T.V. Then later the grounds are open for attendance.
Does this make sense to anyone? If they can't space out people on a parade route on the grounds, how are they going to manage it when the gates open. I guess we are to conclude that some form of physical distancing is still going to be required even though the province will likely be in Stage 3 by then (supposedly with no restrictions).
 
People will naturally spread out a bit more like the smell of bad cologne in a room, instead of concentrating along a route.

If they trusted people to 'stay in their circles' they could have easily done the parade, but then you probably need volunteers to enforce that. and think of all the aerosols the street sweepers make.

I also bet, the two(?) stampede affiliated marching bands will loop back a few times and play near full songs on each pass.
 
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