I can't say you're wrong, the optics and the principal (public transit vs privately funded arena) aren't good in many ways, but I'm supporting the new arena proposal for a few reasons.
- The scales are so different. $275Million compared to $5Billion. The Green Line has potential to be hundreds of millions even billions over cost if not done right. The arena could have overruns too, but it's a much smaller amount.
- The window of opportunity. While it doesn't seem like the Flames would leave, the potential is still there for them to do so if a new arena doesn't get built. The dome can still host some sports teams and the odd concert but that won't last forever (Some say the dome has another 10-20 years before it gets torn down either way) The only way to get sports teams and concerts at that point is for the city to build one themselves (not happening) or try and get a new team and be back to where we are now 10-20 years from now. Or be like Quebec city and let the team leave, and end up building a new arena with city money and without an anchor tenant in hopes of luring an NHL team
- The chance that it will spur some development in Vic Park. I'm not relying on this happening and the economics numbers are dubious IMO, but Vic Park is a dead zone that isn't going anywhere without some kind of catalyst. Only three new residential developments in Vic Park despite a building boom in the core that has seen a hundred or so projects built...….two of those 3 buildings are half empty, and were built because the underground portion was already done. All other proposals for VP have fizzled due to no sales.
Those are the three main reasons along with some intangibles, for example I would like to see some good concerts without having to go to Edmonton. I will use the arena more than I would the new library, or NMC, The zoo, Heritage Park or other public attractions the city has put money into, and I still support money going to those entities.
I generally agree with all of your points. I am not opposed to *some* kind of deal, but there's just a lot of stink on this particular deal that bothers me.
1. The city is claiming that we will make back the money through property taxes. However, this is disingenuous since almost all of the property taxes would come from development that would have occurred elsewhere in the city.
2. The report purposely ignores inflation in order to make it sound like the City is going to make a profit when in reality it will be losing money (about $50 million over 35 years). This is not a deal breaker for me, but it is another disingenuous statements.
3. The fact that the city owns the arena has been promoted as a plus (as if it's a "public" facility). In reality, all this means is that in 35 years when the building is old and in deep need of renovation, the city will be left holding the bag. The Flames will once again start demanding public money for renovations or a new building.
4. The Flames have been negotiating in bad faith all along, trying to sway the municipal election and constantly threatening to leave. Many councilors have been parroting these threats. However, sports economists have claimed that there is almost no chance that the Flames leave (and in fact, they admitted this recently). So, the city has the upper hand in the negotiations.
5. We've been given a week to make a decision about a deal that was made completely behind closed doors. Restaurants need to do more public consultation when they want to build a sidewalk patio! What's the rush? Again, the city has the upper hand. There is no need to rush this decision.
Taken together, these five points make me deeply, deeply suspicious of this deal. I don't think we have all of the information and I don't see why this has to be rushed through other than the Flames and their backers at City Hall are worried that the longer we have to look at it, the more we will realize that we're being misled. I might actually support the deal if I felt like there was sufficient public scrutiny and transparency.