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Calgary Retail Thread

Canada is having a retail moment. I'm wondering if stores are feeling the difference in their bottom line. I think the whole Alberta separation thing could keep the push to buy Canadian going, at least it will for me.

Michael J Fox doing Real Canadian Superstore commercials talking about the flag... I actually think that's smart, I definitely associate the flag with them. I do get a chuckle when I drive south of Macleod and see the green roof starting to come through on the roof of that Superstore, those green stores were something!
 
Canada is having a retail moment. I'm wondering if stores are feeling the difference in their bottom line. I think the whole Alberta separation thing could keep the push to buy Canadian going, at least it will for me.

Michael J Fox doing Real Canadian Superstore commercials talking about the flag... I actually think that's smart, I definitely associate the flag with them. I do get a chuckle when I drive south of Macleod and see the green roof starting to come through on the roof of that Superstore, those green stores were something!
Wonder if they start rebranding Loblaws to Superstores. The Loblaws name has a pretty bad association with it now, and Superstores got "Real Canadian"
 
I'm glad to see this happening. I've heard about this mis-management over the years, and it was evident to us forumers when their multifamily proposals started. Hiring Quarry Bay a small company with no experience to propose 40 storey tower concepts. They really needed to work with a proven developer like a RioCan. At least they engaged RoyOp and managed to get Munro built.
One thing COOP has going for them is a bunch land that could be leveraged with some good developments.
 
Is Co-op not the best run grocery business? Probably. Is this a play to siphon off the real estate portfolio and bankrupt the grocery business? Absolutely. Cross subsidies are normal, Save-On probably only exists because it's backed by Pattison's other businesses. Loblaws is expanding into banking/mobile/insurance/etc. Grocery is a tough business, and to say the company is not profitable without it's real estate, is like saying an airline is not profitable without its loyalty program. It's just the real estate portfolio is much easier to siphon off and sell, compared to an airline loyalty program.

There should be reforms at Co-Op, but this private equity led deal is going to lead to Co-Op becoming the Hudson's Bay, Red Lobster, and countless other businesses with a good Real Estate portfolio.
 
Is Co-op not the best run grocery business? Probably. Is this a play to siphon off the real estate portfolio and bankrupt the grocery business? Absolutely. Cross subsidies are normal, Save-On probably only exists because it's backed by Pattison's other businesses. Loblaws is expanding into banking/mobile/insurance/etc. Grocery is a tough business, and to say the company is not profitable without it's real estate, is like saying an airline is not profitable without its loyalty program. It's just the real estate portfolio is much easier to siphon off and sell, compared to an airline loyalty program.

There should be reforms at Co-Op, but this private equity led deal is going to lead to Co-Op becoming the Hudson's Bay, Red Lobster, and countless other businesses with a good Real Estate portfolio.
Acquisitions are also misrepresented in this i think - Willow Park for example. They have a lot of B2B sales and came with 3 distribution centres to support hospitality sales. Co-Op has been rebranding some stores into Willow Park, including Saskatchewan and Edmonton stores. Lots of potential scale benefits from merging buying, only paying once for expertise. They bought more than the physical store in Calgary.

I see it like buying Community Natural--they weren't just buying the business as a going concern, they bought expertise to elevate their current business lines. Whether Co-Op is good as executing that, is another matter.

The real estate play is obviously not going as well as they wanted.
 
I don't doubt that Co-op has some management issues, as we have seen with their development failures. However, every retail business that has split and sold off its real estate has gone under a few years later. It's short-term play for profit while harming the company in the long run. At the end of the day, as a Co-Op I don't personally think they need to be making tons of money.
 
Hopefully COOP doesn't actually sell off their land, but instead leverages it in to some developments, and still retains ownership of the properties. I agree, if they were to outright sell the land it wouldn't be good for their grocery business long term.
 
Hopefully COOP doesn't actually sell off their land, but instead leverages it in to some developments, and still retains ownership of the properties. I agree, if they were to outright sell the land it wouldn't be good for their grocery business long term.
Their land is booked at $96.5 mm, with buildings and parking lots at another $144.5 mm.

If the grocery business can't sustain market rents, I think Co-Op needs to reevaluate its market position. If it is to provide a cross subsidy to lower grocery prices, they should reposition as a low cost option. If it is a cross subsidy to address access gaps in some communities, it likely shouldn't close stores based on retail metrics alone.

A concern I'd echo with the outside critique is through acquisitions, Co-Op is carrying a lot of 'intangible assets' and 'good will' on its books, that is, the value of brands and business relationships its acquisitions brought with them, and the amount they paid over the book value of the business, presumably because they saw future value in the business. .

AcquisitionIntangible AssetGoodwill
Willow Park$20.1 mm$17.6 mm
Core Health$101.5 mm$193.6 mm
FreshPath$2.2 mm$3.7 mm

They've started to write down some of the assets - $3.7 mm of goodwill from FreshPath was impaired.

The intangibles, $102.6 mm of the value is from customer relationships, most of that from pharmacy customers with Core Health.

It is funny really, to resist a reorganization push from private equity, they've been conducting leveraged buyouts of businesses to try to shore itself up.

Over the medium term, I hope that they leverage their acquisitions more. Larger liquor stores should be rebranded into Willow Park, and the Willow Park loyalty program should be merged into membership rewards (allowing in year dividends perhaps). In store pharmacies should be rebranded into one of the brands Core Health owns, and a loyalty program expanded into the non Co-Op pharmacies. Organics, wellness and nutrition should undergo a similar shift, and organic, wellness and nutrition under Community Natural should become stores within stores for renewed full line Co-Op locations.

I'd also evaluate whether they can be competitive in the value segment, and rebrand smaller stores in lower income communities to that, perhaps with a value flanker brand positioned below Cal & Gary. If successful, that may provide an opportunity to expand in communities they don't serve today.

If the growth potential for home health care isn't there, same with cannabis, the business lines likely require significant expertise, the businesses should be sold.
 

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