Green Line LRT | ?m | ?s | Calgary Transit

[lemongrab]

I think it's a safe bet the UCP gives this the thumbs up and the Feds rubber stamp whatever business case is sent to them.

The ultimate irony of course is that splitting the construction at 4th St into two procurement contracts was the plan back in 2019 and the UCP blocked it with their review and insistence that procurement be done in 1 large contract. Now we're back to doing the same thing Council wanted to do in 2019 but with the SE leg opening in 2031 instead of 2026.

Are we sure that two contracts wouldn't have worked out even worse? Maybe some more smarter people can elucidate the process, but would it have been something like:

South procurement more/less successful; DT procurement fails. So they have to find a lot more money, trim the DT wherever possible, and probably go back to South procurement for substantial VE - but from a much weaker position to negotiate that. The Lynnwood stub option would probably have been impossible (not that that's a bad thing!)

So we'd probably end up in a similar spot with DT in limbo and the south going ahead, but without a convenient scapegoat...so you might even say the UCP has done the city a favour in a weird/twisted way.

It was ever thus. And the fiscal capacity argument is wrong. Calgary's fiscal capacity is set solely by Councillors. Calgary also has a boat load of money in reserves, in theory to pay for things like cost overruns.

This is certainly true, but there is a limit to where that becomes impractical and risky. At a certain point you risk the ability to borrow at competitive rates while those assets generate greater returns. Based on CFO Male's dismissal, I fear we are already on that brink. For projects with a certain ROI it might still be worth it - for instance if you were to convert a bus a minute on Centre St to a fully automated train the overall business case might justify it...but for this GL starting point that just means a lot more OPEX and CAPEX to come...

 

[darwink]

They say they want broad support before advancing any additional work.

People are fixated on the 5%. The West LRT was fully approved with the same level of confidence. The city doth protest too much.

Step one is probably public engagement.

There is nothing to be learned by having people show up and complain.

They say they want broad support before advancing any additional work.

This is not what they approved. If they are signing the funding agreements, the city cannot descope things later.

City staff will come back quarterly with updates until Q4 2026 when they want approval to start construction on the downtown segment in 2027. I think that is a very tight timeline.

It is only tight if council thinks it provides value to the process by tinkering.

 

[darwink]

This is certainly true, but there is a limit to where that becomes impractical and risky.

Yeah. The city decided that building the tunnel was impractical and risky, being unwilling to show it valued the tunnel at anything more than its 33% value.

 

[CalgaryTiger]

People are fixated on the 5%. The West LRT was fully approved with the same level of confidence. The city doth protest too much.

There is nothing to be learned by having people show up and complain.

This is not what they approved. If they are signing the funding agreements, the city cannot descope things later.

It is only tight if council thinks it provides value to the process by tinkering.

I agree, there is no point is even listening to what people have to say but they did say that they will conduct public engagement and me saying "broad support" was a direct quote.

It is going through the motions to say: We had public engagement and this is the best worst option.

But that is what they will do. Afterall it was something the whined about the province not doing. Thing is they need to actually get beyond the 5% so they actually have something to show and say, "see it isn't so bad." So maybe in my earlier steps they actually need to do some design work first.

 

[Albertasaurus]

I really wonder what the public engagement from the city will look like. They say they want broad support before advancing any additional work. City staff will come back quarterly with updates until Q4 2026 when they want approval to start construction on the downtown segment in 2027. I think that is a very tight timeline.

It seems tight only because City Hall, and Council in particular, seems to often suffer a bad case of "analysis paralysis", and in particular if there's any opposition to something. But a window of between 2 and 3 years to complete design and commence construction on the downtown portion, which should only account for a km or so, ought to be more than sufficient. If it can't be done on that timeline, that's on The City.

Lots of good discussion on here, I for one am just happy that it looks to still be happening, and think the approach of building the simple stretch from Event Centre to Shepard makes sense. I do disagree with those saying that an elevated track will be a massive nuisance and noise issue - for one thing, the new rolling stock will likely be much quieter than some of our older trains. I ride the train most days, and there is a huge difference between the original LRT cars from the 80s and the newish ones in terms of noise and comfort level. Some people seem to think the elevated track will be a massive structure with loud, rickety trains like Chicago's EL, and I don't believe that will be the case at all.

 

[darwink]

me saying "broad support" was a direct quote.

Council passing a motion implying they can back out, is dumb. That council has to stage-gate, that makes sense.

But when that vote comes, it comes with an even bigger sunk cost than today's. I guess they can back out, in 2027, from all the funding agreements. But realistically, what are the odds?

Council can back out of projects at any stage for other things too. We shouldn't expect that the city will ever.

While the province's response is entirely political, the federal response is governed by program design and bureaucracy. If the city walks away from the downtown segment in 2027, the federal money disappears and cannot come back without displacing other funds which the city will have already applied for by then.

 

[trtcttc]

It was ever thus. And the fiscal capacity argument is wrong. Calgary's fiscal capacity is set solely by Councillors. Calgary also has a boat load of money in reserves, in theory to pay for things like cost overruns.

Set solely by councillors as in taxes? Maybe it is different in AB but I thought cities cannot run deficits. So they'd need reserves to pay for emergencies because they can't just run a deficit during a bad year.

 

[Gazyyc]

I can't foresee any circumstance where the city can now cancel and walk away from this regardless of what they issued. Something is getting built.
With the timelines they are proposing, I see 2 possibilities, 1) The fully fleshed out elevated design matches the province's expected costs and the city swallows their pride and builds out. 2) The costs match or exceed what the city has indicated they came up with and we see this (dt section ) held up and pushed as an election issue in 2027. Either for another go around the roundabout of the last few years or a push for more funding to cross the river.

 

[badc0ffee]

What is Nenshi going on about here

 

[darwink]

Set solely by councillors as in taxes? Maybe it is different in AB but I thought cities cannot run deficits. So they'd need reserves to pay for emergencies because they can't just run a deficit during a bad year.

The reserves are huge, revenue is stable. The city can take out debt. The city can run a deficit (using net reserves is a deficit).

Calgary went through the the world financial crisis, 2013 floods, multiple Canada post strikes, the oil price crash, and COVID with reserves growing, while refusing to use them to backfill services during COVID to disastrous results for anyone trying to book swimming lessons for example in subsequent years to COVID layoffs.

So, if the city didn't use reserves then both by choice and by not needing them, when would the city use reserves? And if we can't think of one, then they shouldn't exist at least no where near the same extent.

 

[darwink]

What is Nenshi going on about here

Nenshi is implying the province will somehow stop the city from building the downtown segment, whether through incompetence or something else.

 

[badc0ffee]

Would you be able to post a quick synopsis of what he's saying ? I don't have Facebook so can't see the article.
Thanks

 

[CalgaryTiger]

Council passing a motion implying they can back out, is dumb. That council has to stage-gate, that makes sense.

But when that vote comes, it comes with an even bigger sunk cost than today's. I guess they can back out, in 2027, from all the funding agreements. But realistically, what are the odds?

Council can back out of projects at any stage for other things too. We shouldn't expect that the city will ever.

While the province's response is entirely political, the federal response is governed by program design and bureaucracy. If the city walks away from the downtown segment in 2027, the federal money disappears and cannot come back without displacing other funds which the city will have already applied for by then.

We're on the same page, I was simply retelling what the city had said for those who didn't read the articles.

This is happening, they're just jumping through their own hoops they made for themselves when they critiqued the province.

The city wants to get to Eau Claire, they're going to look at the actual costs of getting to 7th and then maybe they just spend the money to get to Eau Claire.

 

[Red Star]

View attachment 628582

Forgive my ignorance...I'm not well versed in the history of this project.

But what was the city and the province doing from 2015-2019?

There was an NDP majority in office, Nenshi was mayor and all three levels of government had committed to funding in 2015. Was four years not long enough to get the ball rolling and get shovels in the ground?

 

[accord1999]

View attachment 628582

Forgive my ignorance...I'm not well versed in the history of this project.

But what was the city and the province doing from 2015-2019?

There was an NDP majority in office, Nenshi was mayor and all three levels of government had committed to funding in 2015. Was four years not long enough to get the ball rolling and get shovels in the ground?

The original schedule (from 2015) was construction to start in around 2017-2018, but the massive plan change in 2017 pushed the start date back to 2020. Given the provincial economic and political issues, Alberta wasn't in a good position to offer more money (beyond the promised $1.5B) and the City never asked anyways.

And only a couple of months after the UCP won the election in 2019, the tunnel issues became public which further pushed the start of construction back.