Green Line LRT | ?m | ?s | Calgary Transit

heightjunkie

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^^ the way the feds have been acting, I’d say it’s just as likely that they’ll increase their funding if we needed it. Probably far more likely than them pulling or freezing their funding. Every major economy is in a massive hole right now, it’s not just Canada. We did what we needed to do to stay afloat as a nation. Now the government will be looking at ways to stimulate growth. Infrastructure projects are always at the top of that list.



I totally agree, but I can’t see how they wouldn’t already know this. This exercise is only to pander to their ultra conservative rural base. If they want to commit political suicide for the next election, they will cancel their Green Line funding. But they aren’t as stupid as many think they are, they know how to read a poll, and every city-wide poll on the Green Line shows overwhelming public support, all in the only swing ridings left in the province.
No doubt they "know." However what I have seen from this government in my dealings with them is that knowledge of polling data doesn't always dissuade them from making ideological choices. Internally they really do have a sense of invincibility still. They believe they will be able to recover from any number of unpopular policy choices pre election due to an unwavering base-- hell they still see their primary "opposition" as the federal liberal party rather than any serious provincial challenge.

So, if we really want to force their hand, get in their face about this one. Just a quick letter (don't do a form email) to your MLA saying that they better support green line funding or else.
 

UrbanWarrior

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That’s good for us then, in the next election, if they see it that way. Their support in all three of the largest urban areas is and will continue to erode as they fuck up more and more.

The new anti-democracy bill banning protests, bungling the flood protection system, nowhere to be seen after last weeks hail disaster, removing the June pride flag in front of the leg that has flown for over a decade now, leaving our provincial parks open to resource exploitation and devastation, and now possible reneging on funding the largest infrastructure project in provincial history. I forget, how many nails does a coffin require?

**edited because I wrote “coffee” rather than coffin 😂
 
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RicoLance21

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Just trying to wrap my head around this. If infrastructure is so critical, how did Doug Ford made the decision to scrap the LRT project in Hamilton? Were there any more rationale than just cost $5+billion? How many Hamiltonians were supporting/opposing the project prior to the cancellation?
 

darwink

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Just trying to wrap my head around this. If infrastructure is so critical, how did Doug Ford made the decision to scrap the LRT project in Hamilton? Were there any more rationale than just cost $5+billion? How many Hamiltonians were supporting/opposing the project prior to the cancellation?
The Hamilton project was marked by a lack of support by more than a bare majority by council, and enough of that support was indifferent on LRT - the project included major streetscape and non LRT infrastructure improvements which had sweetened the deal enough to pass. The senior levels of government were similarly indifferent due to Hamilton’s ongoing inability to come to something near a political consensus—when Hamilton was putting 0 dollars into the project and it was still up in the air it is a strong signal that the project doesn’t have support!

TBH the project was a lot like London or Waterloo with not really enough benefit versus the cost (lacklustre ridership projections, minimal to no travel time improvements, and difficult to build in corridors). But once Waterloo got its project (for pure political reasons) the others of course needed an allocation too. It was money being available willing projects Into existence rather than projects compelling money.
 

Silence&Motion

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Just trying to wrap my head around this. If infrastructure is so critical, how did Doug Ford made the decision to scrap the LRT project in Hamilton? Were there any more rationale than just cost $5+billion? How many Hamiltonians were supporting/opposing the project prior to the cancellation?
If by "critical" you mean "critical" to the political future of the governing party, then the Hamilton LRT was not critical to the Ontario PC Party. As @darwink mentioned, it had nowhere near as much support within Hamilton as the Green Line has in Calgary (keep in mind that Ontario is still largely unfamiliar with LRT technology and many are suspicious of it). Perhaps more importantly, Hamilton went 100% for the NDP, so the OPCP can ignore Hamilton in a way that the UCP cannot ignore Calgary.
 

zagox

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I take a different view of McIver's letter. The Alberta government is taking an investors view of the project. No different than a private company. Before they invest, they want to make sure the revised numbers check out. This project has the potential for all kinds of cost overruns.
Also, don't bank on the federal governments share as being solid. Given all of the free-wheeling ( in most cases necessary) spending of the last 3 months, this could change. As a country we are in a big hole, deficit wise. The feds may revise their commitment, they may cap it or they might hold on to it for a period of time.
I highly doubt this provincial review will lead to full-stop withdrawal of funding. There is too much support in Calgary for the general concept of the Green Line for the UCP to do that.

Having said that, I expect them to ask for some sort of cuts that demonstrate that they are "budget conscious". The most likely victim would be the Phase 2B (Eau Claire - Crescent Heights) segment of the route that already has a lot of detractors (including on Council and in this very forum!).
 

Edmcowboy11

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So I haven't been able to read through all 47 pages of this thread but by looking at the last couple pages it appears that the UCP's are doing their usual thing messing about with important projects that are needed. I usually just follow LRT development in Edmonton, but I thought it would be interesting to see what you guys are doing down your way.

So I take it that this LRT line is still in a holding pattern?
 

Sky of Blue

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So I haven't been able to read through all 47 pages of this thread but by looking at the last couple pages it appears that the UCP's are doing their usual thing messing about with important projects that are needed. I usually just follow LRT development in Edmonton, but I thought it would be interesting to see what you guys are doing down your way.

So I take it that this LRT line is still in a holding pattern?
Stage one is a go. 15 stations and 20 Kms of track. Approved to go ahead back in June. Expected opening 2027
 

RicoLance21

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The UCP said they were going to review the project back in June to "analyze the risk and benefits" of the project. Haven't heard anything since but I doubt anything too dramatic will come of it apart from the UCP puffing up their chest a bit.
I have a funny feeling the UCP may just drop the guillotine past Eau Claire. There’s simply too many NIMBYs north of it. Downtown will likely go ahead as planned with perhaps at least a year delay.
 
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Colinfill

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I have a funny feeling the UCP may just drop the guillotine past Eau Claire. There’s simply too many NIMBYs north of it. Downtown will likely go ahead as planned with perhaps at least a year delay.
Can the UCP do that? I thought the only thing they could do is to pull their funding?
 

darwink

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Sure the government can dictate conditions and place the city in a take it or leave it. Of course, it could cause a breach with the federal contribution agreement, so it could kill the project.
 

accord1999

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So I haven't been able to read through all 47 pages of this thread but by looking at the last couple pages it appears that the UCP's are doing their usual thing messing about with important projects that are needed. I usually just follow LRT development in Edmonton, but I thought it would be interesting to see what you guys are doing down your way.
Almost all of the blame can be placed on the City badly underestimating how expensive the Green Line was going to be, leading to major revisions in 2017 and earlier this year. Back in late 2015, they were predicting construction would have started in 2018 and be done in 2024, for the entire 40 km route for just $5B.

 

darwink

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Important to remember that at least a good amount of that difference is a massive scope change from a cheapest line which goes from x to y to z, to a line which doesn’t block cars very much, at least south of the bow river.
 

Dārayavauš

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Important to remember that at least a good amount of that difference is a massive scope change from a cheapest line which goes from x to y to z, to a line which doesn’t block cars very much, at least south of the bow river.
Yes and good thing too. Calgary finally seems to be learning from the mistakes of always being cheap. We’ll see when the Green Line goes ahead though. Shovels should already be in the ground by now. It’s been five years.
 

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