Green Line LRT | ?m | ?s | Calgary Transit

Go Elevated or try for Underground?

  • Work with the province and go with the Elevated option

    Votes: 52 76.5%
  • Try another approach and go for Underground option

    Votes: 13 19.1%
  • Cancel it altogether

    Votes: 1 1.5%
  • Go with a BRT solution

    Votes: 2 2.9%

  • Total voters
    68
I take a different view of McIver's letter. The Alberta government is taking an investors view of the project. No different than a private company. Before they invest, they want to make sure the revised numbers check out. This project has the potential for all kinds of cost overruns.
Also, don't bank on the federal governments share as being solid. Given all of the free-wheeling ( in most cases necessary) spending of the last 3 months, this could change. As a country we are in a big hole, deficit wise. The feds may revise their commitment, they may cap it or they might hold on to it for a period of time.

I highly doubt this provincial review will lead to full-stop withdrawal of funding. There is too much support in Calgary for the general concept of the Green Line for the UCP to do that.

Having said that, I expect them to ask for some sort of cuts that demonstrate that they are "budget conscious". The most likely victim would be the Phase 2B (Eau Claire - Crescent Heights) segment of the route that already has a lot of detractors (including on Council and in this very forum!).
 
So I haven't been able to read through all 47 pages of this thread but by looking at the last couple pages it appears that the UCP's are doing their usual thing messing about with important projects that are needed. I usually just follow LRT development in Edmonton, but I thought it would be interesting to see what you guys are doing down your way.

So I take it that this LRT line is still in a holding pattern?
 
So I haven't been able to read through all 47 pages of this thread but by looking at the last couple pages it appears that the UCP's are doing their usual thing messing about with important projects that are needed. I usually just follow LRT development in Edmonton, but I thought it would be interesting to see what you guys are doing down your way.

So I take it that this LRT line is still in a holding pattern?
Stage one is a go. 15 stations and 20 Kms of track. Approved to go ahead back in June. Expected opening 2027
 
The UCP said they were going to review the project back in June to "analyze the risk and benefits" of the project. Haven't heard anything since but I doubt anything too dramatic will come of it apart from the UCP puffing up their chest a bit.

I have a funny feeling the UCP may just drop the guillotine past Eau Claire. There’s simply too many NIMBYs north of it. Downtown will likely go ahead as planned with perhaps at least a year delay.
 
Last edited:
I have a funny feeling the UCP may just drop the guillotine past Eau Claire. There’s simply too many NIMBYs north of it. Downtown will likely go ahead as planned with perhaps at least a year delay.
Can the UCP do that? I thought the only thing they could do is to pull their funding?
 
Sure the government can dictate conditions and place the city in a take it or leave it. Of course, it could cause a breach with the federal contribution agreement, so it could kill the project.
 
So I haven't been able to read through all 47 pages of this thread but by looking at the last couple pages it appears that the UCP's are doing their usual thing messing about with important projects that are needed. I usually just follow LRT development in Edmonton, but I thought it would be interesting to see what you guys are doing down your way.
Almost all of the blame can be placed on the City badly underestimating how expensive the Green Line was going to be, leading to major revisions in 2017 and earlier this year. Back in late 2015, they were predicting construction would have started in 2018 and be done in 2024, for the entire 40 km route for just $5B.

d5HohbE.png
 
Important to remember that at least a good amount of that difference is a massive scope change from a cheapest line which goes from x to y to z, to a line which doesn’t block cars very much, at least south of the bow river.
 
Important to remember that at least a good amount of that difference is a massive scope change from a cheapest line which goes from x to y to z, to a line which doesn’t block cars very much, at least south of the bow river.
Yes and good thing too. Calgary finally seems to be learning from the mistakes of always being cheap. We’ll see when the Green Line goes ahead though. Shovels should already be in the ground by now. It’s been five years.
 
Important to remember that at least a good amount of that difference is a massive scope change from a cheapest line which goes from x to y to z, to a line which doesn’t block cars very much, at least south of the bow river.
I've seen it used as a reason for why the costs increased so much, but I don't think it holds up when looking at the earlier documents. From the beginning, a long tunnel from north of 16th Ave through the core was always in consideration.

0b1jeKR.png


The long tunnel option was overwhelmingly recommended by City Admin and the Council dutifully voted for it, but every option through downtown was expensive. The Green Line becoming so expensive has been from every segment of it rising in cost.

At an estimated $1.95 billion, the tunnel was more expensive than four other options being considered for the north-central stretch of the Green Line, which ranged from $1.5 to $1.8 billion.


Yes and good thing too. Calgary finally seems to be learning from the mistakes of always being cheap. We’ll see when the Green Line goes ahead though. Shovels should already be in the ground by now. It’s been five years.

In many ways, Calgary being cheap with its original lines is why it was successful. And the problem with the Green Line is that it's gotten so expensive, that they had to cheapen it anyways. By shortening the line so much that it doesn't reach the deep SE and barely crosses the river so that it's completely useless in relieving the heavily used bus routes of Centre Street North, though I fully expect that in a few years, more budget problems will lead them to cut the river crossing. And because it's so short, ridership is mediocre and will cost Transit (and Calgary taxpayers) $40M/year in increased costs to operate. The Green Line looks less like the successful Red and Blue lines and more like the white elephant LRT lines of the US. The fancy new lines that run mostly empty trains and cost so much to operate that their transit agencies had to cut back on bus service and ended up losing ridership.
 
Well maybe also the UCP are going to wait to give full approval until elections so they can use it as a campaign annoncement. I would be so benevolent of them to announce how they support LRT condtruction by finally realeasing the money when they can visually gain the most politically.
 
I've seen it used as a reason for why the costs increased so much, but I don't think it holds up when looking at the earlier documents. From the beginning, a long tunnel from north of 16th Ave through the core was always in consideration.

0b1jeKR.png


The long tunnel option was overwhelmingly recommended by City Admin and the Council dutifully voted for it, but every option through downtown was expensive. The Green Line becoming so expensive has been from every segment of it rising in cost.






In many ways, Calgary being cheap with its original lines is why it was successful. And the problem with the Green Line is that it's gotten so expensive, that they had to cheapen it anyways. By shortening the line so much that it doesn't reach the deep SE and barely crosses the river so that it's completely useless in relieving the heavily used bus routes of Centre Street North, though I fully expect that in a few years, more budget problems will lead them to cut the river crossing. And because it's so short, ridership is mediocre and will cost Transit (and Calgary taxpayers) $40M/year in increased costs to operate. The Green Line looks less like the successful Red and Blue lines and more like the white elephant LRT lines of the US. The fancy new lines that run mostly empty trains and cost so much to operate that their transit agencies had to cut back on bus service and ended up losing ridership.
We shall see. But I think it will be successful as ridership is always higher in Canada vs the USA.
 
I'm not sure why people talk about Stage 1 of Green Line like it's all that will ever be built. When the red line opened it ran from downtown to Anderson Station. Thankfully the city never stopped building and we now have the expansive LRT system we all enjoy today.

Perhaps the success of the Green Line would be in question if there was no plan for expansion beyond 16th Ave to Shepard but that is not the case. Just like the red and blue lines, the plan is to keep building. Does anyone really doubt that Green Line won't be a success once it runs from Keystone to Shepard? Stage 1 is a beginning, not an end. By the time the Stage 1 opening is happening around 2027 I have no doubt there will be funding already lined up for Stage 2.
 
I'm not sure why people talk about Stage 1 of Green Line like it's all that will ever be built. When the red line opened it ran from downtown to Anderson Station. Thankfully the city never stopped building and we now have the expansive LRT system we all enjoy today.

Perhaps the success of the Green Line would be in question if there was no plan for expansion beyond 16th Ave to Shepard but that is not the case. Just like the red and blue lines, the plan is to keep building. Does anyone really doubt that Green Line won't be a success once it runs from Keystone to Shepard? Stage 1 is a beginning, not an end. By the time the Stage 1 opening is happening around 2027 I have no doubt there will be funding already lined up for Stage 2.

That happened because Calgary was booming. For example, Edmonton's LRT was supposed to extend to Southgate in the mid 90s, but due to Klein's drastic infrastructure funding cuts, it terminated at University in 1992; it then stayed that way for over 10 years, and it only restarted because Edmonton became red hot again. Also, we shall see if any type of recovery will happen by 2027. Until then, I can see stage 2b shelved by a future plebiscite, and stage 2a only stayed afloat to completion as the sensible reason to connect the core part of the transit network. Prepare for a long drag of zero activity for the entire city after the completion of Eau Claire station except for minor improvements to the existing BRT lines.
 

Back
Top