As a mere urbanist gentleperson with minimal formal training and experience in transportation infrastructure design, procurement and tunneling, forgive me if I summarize these events but just want to fact check what I understand to be happening:
- Through the engagement and design stage, underground alignment was extended and expanded from the high-level concepts, resulting in a relatively deep-bored tunnel. Acknowledging that parts of downtown were always going to be tunneled (i.e. CPR, 9th and 7th Avenues in particular, plus any curves or portals needed)
- The perception of increased difficulty and cost comes from two sources: the length of the tunnel and the number of underground stations and the poor ground conditions. Depth of the tunnel is a factor but it's largely the stations and length that are the cost drivers?
- The procurement model and recent drama is all related to the realization that these cost drivers have made it unlikely to be able to complete within the budget envelope as provided, especially given the uncertainty of the downtown section and the goal of reducing public risk through the procurement model
Further complicating is the actions of Councillors, the project team and others of late. We also (of course) have the "grumpy rich old white men" contingent and a new provincial government that seems more keen than previous ones to interfere with Calgary decisions through funding strings directly on this project. More locally, the decision to consider the SE leg done and ready for RFP has caused a rift and uproar as it leaves the core section solely exposed to political interference about the orientation, quality and performance of the core section. I get why this was done to split the segments and keep project inertia, but it would be hard to justify the SE Greenline at all if it doesn't have a quality downtown connection, as it's the only area of substantial transit-supportive job and residential density along the alignment (not a great reality for a transit project).
Given all these new constraints and realizations, I would be happy if we saw an at grade track north of 4th Avenue and a bridge over the river and as shallow as possible cut-and-cover through downtown, under the CPR tracks and emerging on the surface along 12th Avenue SW before Macleod if that was possible. Move the Victoria Park Station to 12th Ave and 4th SE, then replace the Macdonald Bridge into Ramsay with an LRT bridge and continue that way into the SE alignment. I think Calgary has a poor understanding of what low-floor, ground level LRT can be and do - largely due to our bias to look at local examples of our LRT streets. With good quality street improvements and dedicated spaces, these trains can be fast, efficient and a benefit to the urban realm, rather than a barrier like so much of what we have built.
Of course, that would require the rethinking of so many deeply ingrained biases we have in the public and professional discourse around this project and LRT in general. Transit projects only seem expensive because it's paying for the whole grade separation, while the benefit of grade separation is split between roads and transit. If we gave transit full priority at every signal, every time, as much space as it needs on downtown roads, and some of the mandatory grade separation the project would be more manageable. Go full on best-practice at-grade urban LRT as opposed to this hybrid weird low-floor suburban focuses, semi-metro deep tunnel thing.
TL,DR:
The Greenline can be a good project, but without a serious effort (and the cost) to do the downtown section "right" it'll be left wanting and be reflected in poor ridership and a failure to trigger a new transit-oriented resurgence in Calgary. The rest of the route is too weak and long-term on it's own. The core needs to be done correctly. If tunnelling is too difficult/expensive then let's get creative and actually design a high quality, at-grade low-floor LRT. To achieve a similar service quality, capacity and efficiency this will require a substantial reallocation of car-dominated spaces in the inner city which is fine IMO.