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Calgary & Alberta Economy

JonnyCanuck

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This was a perfect opportunity for the federal government to echo the NEB's announcement and confidently state that there is more than just light at the end of the tunnel for TMX.. It would have been reassuring to Albertans if it came from Justin Trudeau's mouth. Of course, he cannot do that because it would appear that he is too much in favour of pipelines and this is an election year and all. Something tells me that all of the 🦆🦆🦆 will be in a row sometime this year but it will be too late to re-start construction. So another year will be squandered.
 

darwink

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This was a perfect opportunity for the federal government to echo the NEB's announcement and confidently state that there is more than just light at the end of the tunnel for TMX.. It would have been reassuring to Albertans if it came from Justin Trudeau's mouth. Of course, he cannot do that because it would appear that he is too much in favour of pipelines and this is an election year and all. Something tells me that all of the 🦆🦆🦆 will be in a row sometime this year but it will be too late to re-start construction. So another year will be squandered.
But they can't without opening them up to litigation, and potentially killing the project/putting it on ice again. It isn't about the election, it is about getting it built.
 

JonnyCanuck

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So the Line 3 pipeline is delayed until at least summer of 2020. Our saga continues. This seems to be a pattern. Just when we think we are close to resolving pipeline capacity issues through the U.S, we run into another roadblock (i.e Keystone XL)😩
We cannot depend on these Canada U.S pipelines in the short to medium term. All the more reason why everyone including the federal government needs to get their shoulders behind TMX. 🇨🇦
 

darwink

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Yeah it sure sucks. And when the state permits are issued, another round of lawsuits, then the federal permit will be issued, and another round of lawsuits. Courts with overlapping jurisdiction makes life harder. Hopefully Line 3 and Keystone XL are in operation by the next Presidential election.

At least in Canada we can be assured that associated lawsuits get bundled together (even if the outcome isn't always what we like), and side issues (like Burnaby's bylaw and permitting process) are dealt with relatively quickly.
 

JonnyCanuck

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The International Energy Agency does not foresee peak demand for oil for at least 5 years or longer. The U.S will become a net exporter by 2021 and will surpass Saudi Arabia and Russia as net exporters by 2024.
With over 90% of our oil being exported to the U.S, where does that put our energy industry in 5 years? 😳

How did our country not see this coming and have a strategy in place? You watch ...there will be little concern about this development outside Alberta, either by the press or the feds. It will just happen over 5 years and then everyone will be asking .... what happened to us???
What a colossal miscue by our leaders. 😡
 

darwink

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The International Energy Agency does not foresee peak demand for oil for at least 5 years or longer. The U.S will become a net exporter by 2021 and will surpass Saudi Arabia and Russia as net exporters by 2024.
With over 90% of our oil being exported to the U.S, where does that put our energy industry in 5 years? 😳

How did our country not see this coming and have a strategy in place? You watch ...there will be little concern about this development outside Alberta, either by the press or the feds. It will just happen over 5 years and then everyone will be asking .... what happened to us???
What a colossal miscue by our leaders. 😡
Net exporter? JFC. At least the refineries are still set up for heavy, but you have to wonder if the world is flooded with light, whether it is worth it to keep them configured like that.

I imagine exporters without firm agreements right now would start looking at a new project pointed in any direction than the USA. That Eagle Spirit Pipeline at 2 million barrels, I wonder if it could get through processes in the life of a single majority government. Might be worth a speculative firm service agreement from the AB gov (which really helped EE before it was proposed).
 

Surrealplaces

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Not exactly pipeline revenue, but still a good boost to Calgary. They still need corporate sponsorship, but looks positive.

 

JonnyCanuck

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A federal budget critique ☹:
Unless I missed something that was not obvious, there is nothing in it to address: our economy that is clearly slowing down; our competitiveness with the U.S. (reduction in corporate taxes; roll back of inhibiting regulations etc) or the energy industry specifically. The latter is probably the single largest reason why the GDP growth over the last 3-4 years has been mediocre at best. It is laughable to see in some media reports that the Canadian economy had been 'booming' heading into 2019. Really??🙄
Whether there is realization that Canada is in for a lot of economic hurt, by the average Canadian come election time, remains to be seen. I don't see anything in this budget where every Canadian is going to be better off, economically. There are special circumstances, where a number of Canadians can leverage programs, tax breaks etc. All of this at a cost, when the economy is slowing down and no revenue from which to fund them. Hence, more debt, more deficits.😬
 
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darwink

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There was an energy industry thing: $100 million for the Clean Resource Innovation Network over 4 years. For supporting technology to make hydrocarbon energy have less of an environmental footprint with the goal of a zero greenhouse gas emissions industry.

Highlight of the members:
Athabasca Oil Corporation; Canadian Natural Resources Limited; Cenovus Energy; Husky Energy Inc.; Imperial; Seven Generations Energy; Shell Canada Limited; Suncor Energy Inc.

The goal is to find "transformative solutions towards a low carbon, low cost oil and natural gas industry". Now, the money amount might seem low. But since the money is applied at very early stage technologies, and discovery research it is a huge injection.
 

JonnyCanuck

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Yes. A program that oil companies can take advantage of that supports the Liberals agenda on reducing carbon emissions. My point is there is nothing in the budget that helps the energy industry to:
  1. Be more competitive on the world market
  2. Get more of oil & gas to markets outside of the U.S
  3. Create/add any more jobs after having lost tens of thousands.
 

darwink

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Developing technology to reduce the energy input into our oil production won't reduce costs at all. No, not at all. Won't help us be competitive.

And from the federal perspective, they have done a lot - they could have let TMX die twice in the last year, and have spent a lot of money and political capital trying to get that car out of the ditch.
 

JesseLikesCities

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Developing technology to reduce the energy input into our oil production won't reduce costs at all. No, not at all. Won't help us be competitive.

And from the federal perspective, they have done a lot - they could have let TMX die twice in the last year, and have spent a lot of money and political capital trying to get that car out of the ditch.
Get the car out of the ditch? They put the car in the ditch by not approving it and then they put said car on cinder blocks by spending $5 billion of tax payer money on it when it was going to be fully funded by a private company.
 

darwink

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TMX was approved by the government, and fell due to duty to consult and leaving marine shipping out of the scope in the courts. Just as northern gateway failed in the courts as well.
 

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