Alberta Provincial Politics

[trtcttc]

Doug Ford is a capitalist first, a crony second, and Canadian third. Trump is threatening the capital/money of the province which he runs, sp he'll stand up for it. I hate the c*nt, but I'm impressed by the posture he's taking.

Important to note he threatened to retaliate with provincial owned (through OPG) electricity generation assets. He's not threatening to withhold vehicle manufacturing, or to deviate from American led Chinese EV bans. Putting export taxes or withholding Alberta energy exports would have much more impact to Alberta than halting electricity exports on Ontario. It's pretty clear that the provinces that depend significantly on commodities exports had a much more conciliatory tone because the risk is that much greater.
I have probably a more positive view of the UCP than most, I think most of the worst stuff they've done have been on rhetoric, like this provincial border plan. This is what, 29 million? And the truth is in the details; is this new money or just diverting some money from AB Sheriffs into this new group. It's essentially an announcement so she can go to Governors and Republican allies and say here we're doing stuff and addressing your concerns.

 

[darwink]

It's pretty clear that the provinces that depend significantly on commodities exports had a much more conciliatory tone because the risk is that much greater.

They [Alberta] also think they're special since they are stuck in a strategic paradigm for evaluation that doesn't exist anymore, where oil is a much more important (and that since they like Keystone XL, and Trump likes Keystone XL, there is no way he can logically square that since Keystone XL would have enabled an even larger trade deficit).

The trade deficit of the USA is mostly due to oil exports. That that then enables the USA to have a smaller trade deficit with Saudi Arabia, or a trade surplus with importers of American crude oil or refined petroleum products is too difficult of an analysis for them. The USA won't exempt the product that is most responsible, they said they won't, and won't.

 

[trtcttc]

They [Alberta] also think they're special since they are stuck in a strategic paradigm for evaluation that doesn't exist anymore, where oil is a much more important (and that since they like Keystone XL, and Trump likes Keystone XL, there is no way he can logically square that since Keystone XL would have enabled an even larger trade deficit).

The trade deficit of the USA is mostly due to oil exports. That that then enables the USA to have a smaller trade deficit with Saudi Arabia, or a trade surplus with importers of American crude oil or refined petroleum products is too difficult of an analysis for them. The USA won't exempt the product that is most responsible, they said they won't, and won't.

We'll see what comes of this threat. Every leader is pandering to Trump because appeasement is the early part of the strategy and they see him as influence-able. But long term, it can change. Just ask China, countries were pandering to them in the early 2010s, by the back half of the decade, there was a real shift away from them economically.

 

[darwink]

Danielle Smith 2017 to an NDP government: "I have been advocating that we turn off the existing Kinder Morgan Trans Mountain pipeline to show British Columbians how much they rely on fossil fuels from Alberta."

Danielle Smith 2024 to a Republican government: "Under no circumstances will Alberta agree to cut off oil and gas exports."

 

[CalgaryTiger]

Does Alberta export electricity to Montana at all?

 

[darwink]

Does Alberta export electricity to Montana at all?

Back and forth, yes. The Montana Alberta Tie Line.

 

[trtcttc]

Danielle Smith 2017 to an NDP government: "I have been advocating that we turn off the existing Kinder Morgan Trans Mountain pipeline to show British Columbians how much they rely on fossil fuels from Alberta."

Danielle Smith 2024 to a Republican government: "Under no circumstances will Alberta agree to cut off oil and gas exports."

Being in government is different from opposition. If the NDP had rolled out the UCP 2024 budget, they'll be criticizing it all day for not having a larger surplus.

Does Alberta export electricity to Montana at all?

We do but it's much more mixed, import and export based on market conditions and environmental factors. Ontario, BC, and Que are a bit different because they have a lot of baseload. I can speak more for Ontario as I worked in this sector during this period. In Ontario's case their baseloads are nuclear, hydro and some extent renewables. When the previous Liberal Ontario government was in power and phased out coal, they massively overspent on renewables contracts. Unlike Alberta's energy only system, they had a lot of incentives and guaranteed rates to renewable providers that were much higher than market rates.

https://ospe.on.ca/advocacy/green-e... 33,000 green,price of electricity in Ontario.

This meant the Hourly Ontario Energy Price (HOEP) was often at 0 or near 0, much less than the cost they promised to producers. This resulted in huge Global Adjustment fees paid on energy bills for making up the difference. For example, when the HOEP was near 0 and Ontario running almost entirely on nuclear, hydro, and renewables, New York State would turn off their gas plants (peaking) and import from Ontario. That price difference of 0 to whatever is in the contract was paid by Ontarians. A number of legislation since then including the 2017 Fair Hydro Act shifted some of that cost from ratepayers to taxpayers through government subsidies.

The problem isn't as severe now because of the population increase, Ontario's own electricity demand has increased and refurbishments at various nuclear facilities have decreased baseload, but Ontario still sells energy to the US because they can't "turn off" nuclear, hydro and renewables. While US states running gas plants have much more flexibility to take advantage of oversupply in the market. On the other hand, Alberta mostly relies on gas, so we're more so the US states in the Ontario/New York examples When prices drop, peaking plants turn off and we buy from BC and others if they have excess power.