Alberta Provincial Politics

[trtcttc]

Doug Ford is a capitalist first, a crony second, and Canadian third. Trump is threatening the capital/money of the province which he runs, sp he'll stand up for it. I hate the c*nt, but I'm impressed by the posture he's taking.

Important to note he threatened to retaliate with provincial owned (through OPG) electricity generation assets. He's not threatening to withhold vehicle manufacturing, or to deviate from American led Chinese EV bans. Putting export taxes or withholding Alberta energy exports would have much more impact to Alberta than halting electricity exports on Ontario. It's pretty clear that the provinces that depend significantly on commodities exports had a much more conciliatory tone because the risk is that much greater.
I have probably a more positive view of the UCP than most, I think most of the worst stuff they've done have been on rhetoric, like this provincial border plan. This is what, 29 million? And the truth is in the details; is this new money or just diverting some money from AB Sheriffs into this new group. It's essentially an announcement so she can go to Governors and Republican allies and say here we're doing stuff and addressing your concerns.

 

[darwink]

It's pretty clear that the provinces that depend significantly on commodities exports had a much more conciliatory tone because the risk is that much greater.

They [Alberta] also think they're special since they are stuck in a strategic paradigm for evaluation that doesn't exist anymore, where oil is a much more important (and that since they like Keystone XL, and Trump likes Keystone XL, there is no way he can logically square that since Keystone XL would have enabled an even larger trade deficit).

The trade deficit of the USA is mostly due to oil exports. That that then enables the USA to have a smaller trade deficit with Saudi Arabia, or a trade surplus with importers of American crude oil or refined petroleum products is too difficult of an analysis for them. The USA won't exempt the product that is most responsible, they said they won't, and won't.

 

[trtcttc]

They [Alberta] also think they're special since they are stuck in a strategic paradigm for evaluation that doesn't exist anymore, where oil is a much more important (and that since they like Keystone XL, and Trump likes Keystone XL, there is no way he can logically square that since Keystone XL would have enabled an even larger trade deficit).

The trade deficit of the USA is mostly due to oil exports. That that then enables the USA to have a smaller trade deficit with Saudi Arabia, or a trade surplus with importers of American crude oil or refined petroleum products is too difficult of an analysis for them. The USA won't exempt the product that is most responsible, they said they won't, and won't.

We'll see what comes of this threat. Every leader is pandering to Trump because appeasement is the early part of the strategy and they see him as influence-able. But long term, it can change. Just ask China, countries were pandering to them in the early 2010s, by the back half of the decade, there was a real shift away from them economically.

 

[darwink]

Danielle Smith 2017 to an NDP government: "I have been advocating that we turn off the existing Kinder Morgan Trans Mountain pipeline to show British Columbians how much they rely on fossil fuels from Alberta."

Danielle Smith 2024 to a Republican government: "Under no circumstances will Alberta agree to cut off oil and gas exports."

 

[CalgaryTiger]

Does Alberta export electricity to Montana at all?

 

[darwink]

Does Alberta export electricity to Montana at all?

Back and forth, yes. The Montana Alberta Tie Line.

 

[trtcttc]

Danielle Smith 2017 to an NDP government: "I have been advocating that we turn off the existing Kinder Morgan Trans Mountain pipeline to show British Columbians how much they rely on fossil fuels from Alberta."

Danielle Smith 2024 to a Republican government: "Under no circumstances will Alberta agree to cut off oil and gas exports."

Being in government is different from opposition. If the NDP had rolled out the UCP 2024 budget, they'll be criticizing it all day for not having a larger surplus.

Does Alberta export electricity to Montana at all?

We do but it's much more mixed, import and export based on market conditions and environmental factors. Ontario, BC, and Que are a bit different because they have a lot of baseload. I can speak more for Ontario as I worked in this sector during this period. In Ontario's case their baseloads are nuclear, hydro and some extent renewables. When the previous Liberal Ontario government was in power and phased out coal, they massively overspent on renewables contracts. Unlike Alberta's energy only system, they had a lot of incentives and guaranteed rates to renewable providers that were much higher than market rates.

https://ospe.on.ca/advocacy/green-e... 33,000 green,price of electricity in Ontario.

This meant the Hourly Ontario Energy Price (HOEP) was often at 0 or near 0, much less than the cost they promised to producers. This resulted in huge Global Adjustment fees paid on energy bills for making up the difference. For example, when the HOEP was near 0 and Ontario running almost entirely on nuclear, hydro, and renewables, New York State would turn off their gas plants (peaking) and import from Ontario. That price difference of 0 to whatever is in the contract was paid by Ontarians. A number of legislation since then including the 2017 Fair Hydro Act shifted some of that cost from ratepayers to taxpayers through government subsidies.

The problem isn't as severe now because of the population increase, Ontario's own electricity demand has increased and refurbishments at various nuclear facilities have decreased baseload, but Ontario still sells energy to the US because they can't "turn off" nuclear, hydro and renewables. While US states running gas plants have much more flexibility to take advantage of oversupply in the market. On the other hand, Alberta mostly relies on gas, so we're more so the US states in the Ontario/New York examples When prices drop, peaking plants turn off and we buy from BC and others if they have excess power.

 

[Cowtown]

Alberta Premier Danielle Smith denies any wrongdoing amidst AHS political interference allegations

Premier Danielle Smith is denying any wrongdoing after Alberta's auditor general said he was investigating health care procurement practices

edmontonjournal.com

 

[CBBarnett]

Budget is here, headline says what my main takeaway is. A very similar move by Ottawa to finance a tax cut through debt while the economy was on shaky footing was met with widespread criticism - notably the Alberta government was one of the loudest critics.

Unsurprisingly, 2 months later they do the same thing and it's a great idea. Ah Alberta politics.... always disappoints but never surprises.

'Difficult decision': Alberta Budget 2025 delivers $1.2 billion tax cut but also $5.2 billion deficit​

https://edmontonjournal.com/news/politics/alberta-budget-2025-deficit-tax-cut

 

[CalgaryTiger]

Budget is here, headline says what my main takeaway is. A very similar move by Ottawa to finance a tax cut through debt while the economy was on shaky footing was met with widespread criticism - notably the Alberta government was one of the loudest critics.

Unsurprisingly, 2 months later they do the same thing and it's a great idea. Ah Alberta politics.... always disappoints but never surprises.

'Difficult decision': Alberta Budget 2025 delivers $1.2 billion tax cut but also $5.2 billion deficit​

https://edmontonjournal.com/news/politics/alberta-budget-2025-deficit-tax-cut

On the subject of the forum, no money for anything new.

 

[Surrealplaces]

Glad to see Nenshi in the legislature, it's been the Danielle Smith show for too long.

 

[Mountain Man]

Lets see if Nenshi can generate any buzz now, kinda disappointed with him so far.

 

[darwink]

Lets see if Nenshi can generate any buzz now, kinda disappointed with him so far.

Being opposition leader is a hard slog. As leader in the Legislature, there will be more budget, especially travel budget, and more direct control over communications and strategy, via both being there, and being able to direct staff.

The NDP style had been break a story and then juice it for all it was worth, just to keep in the news, even if a fair amount of the time the new developments were minor or non-existent. The story would be squeezed until all the news was done, and it cumulated in a request for a resignation or investigation. That would be like in baseball, swinging at every pitch, taking every chance to steal bases. You generate a lot of activity, and the clips pack might be exciting, but are you racking up enough runs?

The other strategy is to assemble plays, work for singles and doubles, and get things in place for big plays when opportunity strikes.

This government it is more difficult as it generates a lot of news both positive and negative on its own, including pushing the boundaries of appropriate conduct.

It is a boring message, but all of the fights the government is creating, does it really matter if the province is 200 schools behind capacity wise? That the government is moving the pieces of the healthcare system around while the issue is overall capacity? That the government is insistent on letting public health go out of control with no concern for schools or the health system? That the government through pure ineptitude opened up coal exploitation on the Alberta side of the rockies in 40 years, and then can't undo it without opening the province up to huge liabilities because the Premier can't stop talking about it.

It is frustrating to see, but what case does the opposition have to make on those?

IMO presenting the NDP as a return to boring government that gets stuff done, stops picking fights, stops fostering unity crisises, and stops absorbing so much of Albertan's mind share in a rolling clusterF should work with careful fostering of the business community and not trying to be too cute about important policy moves with thin opinion research evidence (corporate taxes in the last election being one of instance).

 

[CalgaryTiger]

It is hard to punch a ghost. It's really something how immune Smith and the UCP are to consequences for their actions. Actions that are so outside of what they campaigned on and their jurisdiction.

I think it is better than 50% that there's a Provincial election this fall before the fall session begins at the end of October. It refreshes their mandate and doesn't give Nenshi a chance to get any momentum outside the BBQ circuit.

 

[Surrealplaces]

Lets see if Nenshi can generate any buzz now, kinda disappointed with him so far.

With him not being in the legislature he's had a low profile. I think it'll raise his profile more now that he's in. At least that's my hope.

It is frustrating to see, but what case does the opposition have to make on those?

IMO presenting the NDP as a return to boring government that gets stuff done, stops picking fights, stops fostering unity crisises, and stops absorbing so much of Albertan's mind share in a rolling clusterF should work with careful fostering of the business community and not trying to be too cute about important policy moves with thin opinion research evidence (corporate taxes in the last election being one of instance).

Agreed, and it also wouldn't hurt for Nenshi to focus on Calgarians with issues like lack of schools, decline of health care, Green Line debacle (even though it's not entirely the UCP), Smith as a Trumper and her scary far right conservative side. Maybe I'm oversimplifying things, but to me, I feel like the NDP could keep the seats they won last election, and really need to focus on getting those south Calgary ridings. The NDP will never get those rural ridings, but they don't need them, they just Calgary and I think it can be done if they spin it the right way.