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Alberta Provincial Politics

If an election was held today, who would you vote for?

  • UCP

    Votes: 8 13.3%
  • NDP

    Votes: 44 73.3%
  • Liberal

    Votes: 0 0.0%
  • Alberta Party

    Votes: 4 6.7%
  • Undecided

    Votes: 4 6.7%

  • Total voters
    60
Here are the ridings from 2019 where the NDP performed best despite losing. The NDP needs to flip at least 20 seats to win - most likely within these ridings. Red text denotes places where the UCP won with only a plurality.

RidingNDP%UCP%Diff
Calgary-Falconridge
44.90%​
45.60%
0.70%​
Calgary-Currie
42.90%​
43.70%
0.80%​
Calgary-Varsity
43.40%​
46.20%
2.80%​
Edmonton-South West
41.40%​
45.50%
4.10%​
Sherwood Park
40.00%​
45.40%
5.40%​
Calgary-Klein
39.90%​
47.60%
7.70%​
Banff-Kananaskis
42.00%​
51.30%​
9.30%​
Lethbridge-East
38.70%​
52.40%​
13.70%​
Calgary-North East
35.60%​
49.30%
13.70%​
Morinville-St. Albert
33.20%​
50.00%​
16.80%​
Calgary-Cross
37.40%​
54.30%​
16.90%​
Calgary-Beddington
35.70%​
53.10%​
17.40%​
Calgary-East
32.20%​
49.70%
17.50%​
Calgary-Edgemont
34.00%​
52.80%​
18.80%​
Calgary-Acadia
34.60%​
54.30%​
19.70%​
Strathcona-Sherwood Park
32.30%​
52.50%​
20.20%​
Calgary-Elbow
23.50%​
44.30%
20.80%​
Calgary-Bow
34.20%​
55.90%​
21.70%​
Calgary-Glenmore
32.00%​
55.60%​
23.60%​
Calgary-North
31.10%​
55.20%​
24.10%​
Fort Saskatchewan-Vegreville
29.40%​
53.60%​
24.20%​
Calgary-Foothills
32.40%​
57.00%​
24.60%​
Calgary-North West
31.80%​
56.70%​
24.90%​
Spruce Grove-Stony Plain
29.40%​
59.40%​
30.00%​
Leduc-Beaumont
28.30%​
58.40%​
30.10%​
Calgary-Peigan
29.20%​
59.80%​
30.60%​
Calgary-West
25.50%​
66.10%​
40.60%​
 
It'll be interesting to see if the Alberta Party will manage to win over some disaffected UCP voters. If I were them I'd be seriously looking at Calgary as a potential place to pick up voters who aren't super keen on either party
 
Another reason why I hate politics and politicians. This project has taken 9 years to get it to this point. After suffering the costliest natural disaster in Calgary's and the country's history, the lack of urgency in getting this done was stunning to begin with. Now, a new premier casts doubt on it.
 
It'll be interesting to see if the Alberta Party will manage to win over some disaffected UCP voters. If I were them I'd be seriously looking at Calgary as a potential place to pick up voters who aren't super keen on either party
Problem is if they start to draw NDP voters, then they contribute to the opposite result.
 
While vote splitting is a concern, I also think people should just vote for who they actually want in government and not against who they don't want. Two party systems are toxic and I think Alberta would be better off with a viable 3rd party.
 
Here are the ridings from 2019 where the NDP performed best despite losing. The NDP needs to flip at least 20 seats to win - most likely within these ridings. Red text denotes places where the UCP won with only a plurality.

RidingNDP%UCP%Diff
Calgary-Falconridge
44.90%​
45.60%
0.70%​
Calgary-Currie
42.90%​
43.70%
0.80%​
Calgary-Varsity
43.40%​
46.20%
2.80%​
Edmonton-South West
41.40%​
45.50%
4.10%​
Sherwood Park
40.00%​
45.40%
5.40%​
Calgary-Klein
39.90%​
47.60%
7.70%​
Banff-Kananaskis
42.00%​
51.30%​
9.30%​
Lethbridge-East
38.70%​
52.40%​
13.70%​
Calgary-North East
35.60%​
49.30%
13.70%​
Morinville-St. Albert
33.20%​
50.00%​
16.80%​
Calgary-Cross
37.40%​
54.30%​
16.90%​
Calgary-Beddington
35.70%​
53.10%​
17.40%​
Calgary-East
32.20%​
49.70%
17.50%​
Calgary-Edgemont
34.00%​
52.80%​
18.80%​
Calgary-Acadia
34.60%​
54.30%​
19.70%​
Strathcona-Sherwood Park
32.30%​
52.50%​
20.20%​
Calgary-Elbow
23.50%​
44.30%
20.80%​
Calgary-Bow
34.20%​
55.90%​
21.70%​
Calgary-Glenmore
32.00%​
55.60%​
23.60%​
Calgary-North
31.10%​
55.20%​
24.10%​
Fort Saskatchewan-Vegreville
29.40%​
53.60%​
24.20%​
Calgary-Foothills
32.40%​
57.00%​
24.60%​
Calgary-North West
31.80%​
56.70%​
24.90%​
Spruce Grove-Stony Plain
29.40%​
59.40%​
30.00%​
Leduc-Beaumont
28.30%​
58.40%​
30.10%​
Calgary-Peigan
29.20%​
59.80%​
30.60%​
Calgary-West
25.50%​
66.10%​
40.60%​
Is is safe to assume Edmonton South-West is ready to fire their existing MLA into the sun?
 
Another reason why I hate politics and politicians. This project has taken 9 years to get it to this point. After suffering the costliest natural disaster in Calgary's and the country's history, the lack of urgency in getting this done was stunning to begin with. Now, a new premier casts doubt on it.
This is exactly a 'no filter for crazy'. She appears to hears a few random opponents of the current project say a different project will be cheaper, and fewer people will hate it, plus it can be used for irrigation storage. And instead of thinking for a second, she appears to conclude "whats not to love".

The group the Comprehensive Flood and Water Management Council wants to build a huge reservoir with multiple dams to connect and store the headwaters of the Elbow, Sheep, and Highwood Rivers.
1666196131711.png



From the Springbank dry dam's environmental assessment:
"The Tri-River Joint Reservoir would have included damming of the Sheep River. The Proponent concluded that this option as proposed could not meet the Province’s flood mitigation objectives and was not determined to be feasible due to environmental restraints such as complex geology, limited ability to have any notable flood attenuation capacity for the Sheep River watershed, and poor water management for the Elbow River and the Highwood River."

In the past Danielle Smith interviewed former Mayoral candidate Emile Gabriel about the concept, which was framed as "what if the Springbank Dam failed" , though I can't find audio of it. https://web.archive.org/web/20200929080328/https://www.preventingalbertafloods.ca/

As far as I can gather, the project would be a series of dams across the main and tributaries of the Elbow River, connected by tunnel and pump to a large storage dam which floods the headwaters of the Highwood and Sheep to the point that they are joint headwaters.

This project would appear to appeal to Danielle Smith for a number of reasons:
1) it protects High River from floods without expropriation of private property (that the High River flood protection and expropriation is largely done doesn't matter)
2) it frees Okotoks from its water limits, and provides flood protection
3) it blows up Calgary's water licenses (which was a long term goal of the Wildrose)
4) it stores more water for irrigation without having to trade some farmers against others (like the Eyremore Dam near Brooks)
5) it might protect Calgary from floods without needing land sales or expropriation in Springbank (that the sales are done doesn't matter)
6) someone told her it is cheaper, and she is much more likely to believe independent experts than a team on experts hired by the government
7) she thinks far fewer people would be opposed

In the end it comes down to her appearing to trust non official sources 1000% more than official and once that opinion is formed, not thinking about what could have changed in the mean time to change that analysis.
 
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While vote splitting is a concern, I also think people should just vote for who they actually want in government and not against who they don't want. Two party systems are toxic and I think Alberta would be better off with a viable 3rd party.
Only thing less toxic than two party system is the one-party system of 40 / 44 years in this province. At least we are heading in the right direction!
 
It'll be interesting to see if the Alberta Party will manage to win over some disaffected UCP voters. If I were them I'd be seriously looking at Calgary as a potential place to pick up voters who aren't super keen on either party
Stop trying to make "The Alberta Party" happen.
not-happening-sorry.gif


More seriously, I still don't understand: who is the constituency that is not currently being served by either the UCP or NDP? I just don't see the point of the Alberta Party. Has there every been a centrist 3rd party that has been competitive? All 3rd parties emerge from political movements on the outside of the mainstream (Greens, Reform, NDP, Wildrose, etc.). "Centrism" is not an ideology. It is a strategic position available only to establishment parties that have viable paths to form government.
 
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