Does anyone know what the popular vote numbers were for Alberta? They don't seem to be out yet, but I'm curious how they compare to 2021.
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2025 Federal Election
- Thread starter UrbanWarrior
- Start date
darwink
Senior Member
The consensus of the media and the other parties was that unilaterally changing the system would be tantamount to rigging the system. To the point where to kill reform, the CPC cynically insisted that the opposition have a majority on the committee studying it, insisted the Greens be included, then produced a recommendation that was unspecific and didn't solve the conflict points of change, so they including the NDP could bemoan the specifics later.
It was dumb, a bad faith exercise which everyone blamed on the Liberals when it was a failure of everyone.
darwink
Senior Member
trtcttc
Senior Member
trtcttc
Senior Member
I don't think it's cynical to insist the government doesn't stack the electoral reform committee, considering they'd have a super majority of 6 seats, to the CPC's 3 and NDP with 1. It was the NDP that proposed the new structure based on popular vote. Keep in mind the popular vote for that 2015 election was 39% LPC, 31% CPC, 19% NDP.
The NDP and Greens supported PR, if the LPC wanted PR, they could've easily overcame any CPC opposition, but of course they do not since it advantage them tremendously. I have no issue with Liberals being efficient with their votes and winning in the system that it's in place. It is just in bad faith to say you support changing the system when you know there would not be clear consensus in the committee then immediately dropping the issue to say it's impossible. He dropped it form Karina Gould's mandate letter completely because no consensus existed after a 1 year study by a parliamentary committee. A committee, where they had the most number of seats and if they had supported the solution favoured by the NDP/Greens (PR) or the Conservatives (referendum, likely status quo), they could've produced that consensus. Instead they supported neither and threw their hands up and moved on.
darwink
Senior Member
But they don't say how it would work, and being a huge federation problems like regional representation, how parties make lists, national and provincial cutoffs matter a lot.
It was an unserious exercise.
adamyyc
Active Member
What's crazy is that Pierre Polievre had a higher vote share than a lot of Prime Ministers. It just so happens that so did Carney.
nationalpost.com
FIRST READING: If this had been any other election, Poilievre would be prime minister
Vote share was record high for Conservatives ... but also for the Liberals
nationalpost.com
Thanks Darwink, you're an information machine!
Interesting when looking at combined numbers for the 3 largest right wing parties (CPC, Maverick, CPP) and the 3 largest left wing parties (Liberals, NDP, Green Party) the vote percentage is almost mostly the same from last election.
right wing
2021 63.5
2025 63.8
left wing
2021 35.3
2025 34.6
CalgaryTiger
Senior Member
The change in NDP numbers is staggering. Unlike in other places (Ontario), I don't think a lot of NDP numbers went to the CPC in Alberta. I think Alberta New Democrats are much more likely to go Liberal than CPC as a both votes are a non-CPC vote. Unlike some other places that have three-way races, these numbers, and provincial numbers tell me Alberta political leanings are pretty polarized.
Beltline_B
Senior Member
With the big influx of people from Ontario and BC the past 4 years I was expected to see a larger percentage of votes for the left.
Albertasaurus
Active Member
Yes, but i think part of it is due to the fact that in Ontario, a lot of blue collar unions voters went blue this time around (as they had provincially under Ford) while in AB, blue collar voters have supported the PCs/wild Rose/UCP for ages. Public sector union voters here, and pretty much across Canada tend to lean left though.
The left in Alberta always seems to coalesce around one party...until the Orange Crush in 2015 it was the Liberals provincially, until the NDP basically ate their lunch. Similarly, federally the Carney Liberals did the same (as the chart Darwink posted clearly shows). It's good strategy for them, as by splitting the vote in a conservative province neither party would have hope of winning many seats. In my riding of Confederation, Corey Hogan (L) won in large part because the progressive vote coalesced around him - it was a two horse race and the NDP candidate finished a very distant 3rd.
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trtcttc
Senior Member
There's certainly been movement on the provincial side, but that's probably the UCP becoming more Wildrose than PC. I also think people self-select their move. If progressive politics is very high on your priority list, it's very unlikely you'd move to AB. I think most people think AB is more Conservative and rural than it is. There's regularly non-white people asking on Reddit if they'd feel safe if they moved to AB.
trtcttc
Senior Member
As another resident of this riding, it was evident once he entered the race and the Liberals became the progressive choice, the Kiera Gunn signs were rapidly replaced by the Corey Hogan signs.
It's true, not all people moving from BC or Ontario are automatically liberal. We tend to forget there are still large amounts of conservatives in those provinces, just not a large enough amount to win federal elections. As you said, its more likely for a conservative or politically ambivalent person to move here than it is for someone who's solidly left wing.
Also agree that Alberta isn't as rural or conservative as people think it is. In the rural areas of Alberta, which still makes up a third of the province, the percentage of conservatives is very high. I don't have numbers handy, but I would bet it's in the 80-90% for most ridings. The cities still have a fair amount of conservatives, but the very high percentage of rural conservatives skews the numbers.
CalgaryTiger
Senior Member
What's always interesting to me is that 30% of people across most ridings just don't participate at all. I think most people just don't care because they don't think it affects them, I of course disagree but I don't know how you get to those people. Could be an age thing or maybe just too busy but that 30% number is pretty consistent across ridings.