2025 Federal Election

[Surrealplaces]

If you think that oil sands 6 or 8 million [barrels per day] is something that could exist, yes.

It is also economically inefficient, to both have a national cap and trade, and then an arbitrary submarket within that cap and trade for oil and gas. Basically it ensures that oil and gas doesn't crowd out all other emissions from the emissions market, as they are more efficient, and would lower emissions costs for others, and raise emission costs for oil and gas.

That all being said: Pathways, the largest oil sands companies, have promised that an investment decision on the core infrastructure to enable carbon capture and storage for all of the oil sands is close, for years now. At some point they have to choose: either they don't operate past 2050, or they start capturing some of their CO2. Time to choose.

Neither the liberals or conservatives have abandoned net-zero. It is just a matter of what year. For the Conservatives, it is still 80% reduction by 2050, net-zero by 2080. Liberals it is an ambition for net-zero by 2050.

Thanks Darwink! So basically the without the cap removed, the only way to see in increase in oil sands production would be if it's economically feasible with carbon capture included. If Pathways concludes it's not feasible to add carbon capture, is there room for a compromise? The Feds keep the cap but offer some sort of incentive or tax break on the carbon capture specific to the oil and gas industry? That way they could keep the goal of carbon reduction, but also help make it feasible for increased production.

 

[darwink]

the only way to see in increase in oil sands production would be if it's economically feasible with carbon capture included

As far as I have seen, the sector is not close to the cap. In theory, if the markets supported new large projects otherwise, the cap could contribute to bad vibes which would stop projects from even being proposed.

The Feds keep the cap but offer some sort of incentive or tax break on the carbon capture specific to the oil and gas industry?

The feds have offered to pay 50% of the capital cost and 50% of the operating costs, mirroring the USA inflation reduction act if my memory serves.

Anyways. The issue is it comes down to a firmly held belief that somehow despite oil market pricing post 2013/14, that many oil sands mega projects were killed by the government and not economics. That somehow if the government had Oil and Gas more that more projects would have been built. That since the NDP and Liberals were elected immediately after the oil price collapse that somehow the NDP and Liberals killed the vibes.

IMO it is about feeling somewhat in control of ones own life. By focusing on the NDP and Liberals, there is a belief that policy changes could solve the economic activity slump. Instead of accepting the horror that 1) our biggest customer became our biggest competitor, and hurt us 2) that technology that was partially developed by Albertans caused a structural shift in the oil market, and hurt us 3) No matter how much you love oil and gas, oil and gas doesn't love you back. Its a market, and its dollars and cents, not vibes, that keeps people employed.

Which is the more comfortable world to live in?

 

[CalgaryTiger]

As far as I have seen, the sector is not close to the cap. In theory, if the markets supported new large projects otherwise, the cap could contribute to bad vibes which would stop projects from even being proposed.


The feds have offered to pay 50% of the capital cost and 50% of the operating costs, mirroring the USA inflation reduction act if my memory serves.

Anyways. The issue is it comes down to a firmly held belief that somehow despite oil market pricing post 2013/14, that many oil sands mega projects were killed by the government and not economics. That somehow if the government had Oil and Gas more that more projects would have been built. That since the NDP and Liberals were elected immediately after the oil price collapse that somehow the NDP and Liberals killed the vibes.

IMO it is about feeling somewhat in control of ones own life. By focusing on the NDP and Liberals, there is a belief that policy changes could solve the economic activity slump. Instead of accepting the horror that 1) our biggest customer became our biggest competitor, and hurt us 2) that technology that was partially developed by Albertans caused a structural shift in the oil market, and hurt us 3) No matter how much you love oil and gas, oil and gas doesn't love you back. Its a market, and its dollars and cents, not vibes, that keeps people employed.

Which is the more comfortable world to live in?

The number of people who do not understand your latter point is what holds us back. Ask Kinder Morgan how easy it is to build a pipeline west through the Rocky Mountains. Obviously there were some well publicized issues with even getting construction started but the preconstruction portion wasn't the only portion of the project that had major challenges.

 

[Mountain Man]

Went to my advance polling station about 15 minutes before it opened Saturday and there were already about 30 people in line. Sounds like record turnout at advanced polls!

 

[darwink]

Went to my advance polling station about 15 minutes before it opened Saturday and there were already about 30 people in line. Sounds like record turnout at advanced polls!

It was!

 

[AllanS]

Last election there were 17.2 million votes cast (62.6% turnout).

You have to assume there is going to be a pretty good turnout for this election based on those numbers.

Either that or 40% of all votes have already be cast.

 

[trtcttc]

Last election there were 17.2 million votes cast (62.6% turnout).

You have to assume there is going to be a pretty good turnout for this election based on those numbers.

Either that or 40% of all votes have already be cast.

Turnout will definitely be higher. Have never heard this level of election talk among non-political friends that probably couldn't even name the PM before Harper.

 

[Mountain Man]

Definitely expecting a higher turnout, likely around 70%.

 

[darwink]

Definitely expecting a higher turnout, likely around 70%.

That might be a bit high. 4 days of advance over the holiday weekend brought out a lot of people who would normally vote on election day.

 

[CBBarnett]

That might be a bit high. 4 days of advance over the holiday weekend brought out a lot of people who would normally vote on election day.

One random thought I think every election about turnout is where is everyone?

Turnout for the history of Canada has never been higher than the 75 - 80% (highest was 79% back in the 1960s). In more contemporary times, we have been typically in that 60 - 70% turnout range.

We've had dozens of elections for 150 years - big issue ones and small issue ones - doesn't matter. Turnout really hasn't changed a whole lot - we can never can get that last 25 - 35% of the voting population out. I am sure the reasons individuals say they didn't vote has changed over time, but the sum total effect is reasonably similar turnout over the decades.

It's got to be some sort of population law of large numbers - regardless of the size of a party, only 70% of people will show up

 

[trtcttc]

One random thought I think every election about turnout is where is everyone?

Turnout for the history of Canada has never been higher than the 75 - 80% (highest was 79% back in the 1960s). In more contemporary times, we have been typically in that 60 - 70% turnout range.

We've had dozens of elections for 150 years - big issue ones and small issue ones - doesn't matter. Turnout really hasn't changed a whole lot - we can never can get that last 25 - 35% of the voting population out. I am sure the reasons individuals say they didn't vote has changed over time, but the sum total effect is reasonably similar turnout over the decades.

It's got to be some sort of population law of large numbers - regardless of the size of a party, only 70% of people will show up

Young people also tend to turnout lower, around 55% and as you move up towards 65-75 it approaches 80%. Part of that is probably just younger people don't care but part of it is probably it not being a holiday. Younger people are more likely to be in school/shift work/hourly work and cannot just take time to vote on election day. Would like to see trial of holiday voting during one election to see what the change in turnout. But no parties wants that because nobody wants to inject a bunch of uncertainty into their polling.

 

[Surrealplaces]

It makes you wonder where all the voters are. It's also the same in the US. Only 63.7% of eligible voters turned out, in what should have been a very hotly contested election.

 

[UrbanWarrior]

Don't forget, the US also engages in voter suppression the likes of which most Canadians couldn't imagine, and has for decades, so that plays into their lower numbers. I think Canadians are just generally more apathetic in regard to our national politics, especially because historical lyrics there hasn't been much of a difference between the Liberals and Conservatives. I'm hoping the turnout this year will surprise us in a big way, cause in the eyes of most people, we're facing an existential threat.

 

[trtcttc]

Don't forget, the US also engages in voter suppression the likes of which most Canadians couldn't imagine, and has for decades, so that plays into their lower numbers. I think Canadians are just generally more apathetic in regard to our national politics, especially because historical lyrics there hasn't been much of a difference between the Liberals and Conservatives. I'm hoping the turnout this year will surprise us in a big way, cause in the eyes of most people, we're facing an existential threat.

The US also has significantly more elections, congress every two years, senate every 6, president every 4, and a whole bunch of their local roles are elected (local judges, sheriffs, councilors, mayors, etc.). I can see a lot of people simply can't be bothered to vote so often.

I do think part of our low turnout is the political system. With first past the post here, and in the US where presidents are elected by state, many ridings/state don't matter. The US essentially votes for their president based on 4-5 medium sized states and none of their largest states and economic engines (NY, California, Texas, FL increasingly so). Voting in Alberta is pretty meaningless outside of a handful of ridings. On the whole, Centre-left voters are under-represented in AB, but the country as a whole they're over-represented because of the Liberal's voting efficiency. They swing from losing the election to a majority government with a few pts in the polls.

What Other Countries Can Teach Us About Turnout - Institute for Responsive Government

responsivegov.org

 

[darwink]

I hope an outcome of this election is that instant runoff is seen as more viable. The efficiency problem nor strategic voting is as much of an issue. Regional parties can still be represented.