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Statscan numbers

I love that toddler density map... here's how Calgary has evolved through time over the last 20 years (in order: 2006, 2011, 2016, 2021), all with the same colour scale. I zoomed out a little to focus at the tract level on broader trends.

2006
2011
2016
2021


The thing all of this got me thinking about is actually the mid-NE; the Properties (Whitehorn, Rundle, Pineridge, Temple) and Marlborough / M. Park. Normally, suburban communities have lots of babies in the first decade or so after construction; this is really obvious both from the maps above or if you've ever known someone who bought a new house in the suburbs. The mid-NE was mostly built in the 70s or so; here's a map (from 2006 Census) showing the percent of units built 1971-1980:
1751092885316.png

The mid-NE is one of three big 70s developed clusters, along with one in the NW along Crowchild and one in the S along Anderson as well as smaller ones in the Beddington and Riverbend areas. But the mid-NE continues to have a consistent density of toddlers throughout - even though the first map is from 2006 when these communities are 25+ years old. A consistent density is exactly what makes schools the most efficient to operate (if they are provided for at least), and a higher density of toddlers means (again if the schools are provided for) more kids who can walk to school. Part of it is population density; the mid-NE has ~3-4K people per sq km while the other areas are more like ~2-3K. But a big part of it is actually having more toddlers per capita; here's the percent of 0-4 year olds from 2021:
1751093676454.png

Not wildly high like the new areas, but certainly elevated versus their 70s-80s peer communities. (You can also see the effect in the Tuxedos and Killarneys -- not just denser population, a more age-balanced one.)
 
Nice find kora!

Some interesting info...our CMA currently sitting at 1,839,000 as of this year, and Census Division #6, which includes Foothills and Mountain View Counties (so roughly equal to a typical US CMA in land area) sitting at 1,958,000. These are some crazy numbers, I remember when I was a kid Calgary had less than 500,000 people (and no, I'm not really old).
 
The estimates have Calgary at 1,839,000, so a growth of 60,194 and Edmonton at 1,673,860 for a growth of 42,246. This is around what I guessed it would be.

Alberta as a province is estimated at 4,980,659 for a growth of 138,136. Calgary with 43.7% of Alberta's growth, and Edmonton with 30.6% of Alberta's growth. 25.4% made up the rest of the province, which is higher than in the past when it was closer to 15%, but the cities are still getting by far the largest amount of the growth.
 
Calgary’s putting some major distance between itself and comparable cities like Edmonton and Ottawa. Even without Foothills MD.
Very true. Ottawa-Gatineau in particular has been growing slowest out of the 6 big cities over the past few years, and I expect that to continue if Carney goes through with the cost cutting he's been talking about. Edmonton is still growing very quickly, but slowly falling further behind Calgary population-wise. It's hard to believe that only a few years ago, Statscan showed that Ottawa had leapfrogged over Calgary to retake 4th spot.
 
Very true. Ottawa-Gatineau in particular has been growing slowest out of the 6 big cities over the past few years, and I expect that to continue if Carney goes through with the cost cutting he's been talking about. Edmonton is still growing very quickly, but slowly falling further behind Calgary population-wise. It's hard to believe that only a few years ago, Statscan showed that Ottawa had leapfrogged over Calgary to retake 4th spot.
Ottawa also isn't building enough housing. I'd imagine they have the demand even with some federal cuts. It really is eye changing how much development happens here vs the GTA/GVA/Ottawa areas. Not even large towers, but just infills, row houses.
 
Very true. Ottawa-Gatineau in particular has been growing slowest out of the 6 big cities over the past few years, and I expect that to continue if Carney goes through with the cost cutting he's been talking about. Edmonton is still growing very quickly, but slowly falling further behind Calgary population-wise. It's hard to believe that only a few years ago, Statscan showed that Ottawa had leapfrogged over Calgary to retake 4th spot.
Yep, Ottawa was falling back, but then added more area to their CMA and leapfrogged us temporarily. If Calgary ever adds Foothills MD, it'll put some real distance between us and Edm/Ott.
 
Yep, Ottawa was falling back, but then added more area to their CMA and leapfrogged us temporarily. If Calgary ever adds Foothills MD, it'll put some real distance between us and Edm/Ott.
Foothills MD doesn’t have enough population to substantially make an impact. The difference between Canada’s 2nd tier cities (Calgary, Edmonton, Ottawa) is less than 10% approximately — all much closer to each other compared to Vancouver. Growth rate will be key though with Ottawa falling behind this decade.
 
Foothills MD doesn’t have enough population to substantially make an impact. The difference between Canada’s 2nd tier cities (Calgary, Edmonton, Ottawa) is less than 10% approximately — all much closer to each other compared to Vancouver. Growth rate will be key though with Ottawa falling behind this decade.
Conversely, Vancouver is much closer to Calgary-Edmonton-Ottawa in population than it is to Toronto or even Montreal. It has a bit over a million more people than Calgary, and 4.5 million less people than Toronto.
 
Foothills MD doesn’t have enough population to substantially make an impact. The difference between Canada’s 2nd tier cities (Calgary, Edmonton, Ottawa) is less than 10% approximately — all much closer to each other compared to Vancouver. Growth rate will be key though with Ottawa falling behind this decade.
Foothills MD would add 80k, a fairly substantial amount. It would put Calgary over 10% difference from Edm/Ott.
Compared to the difference from Vancouver, it’s not huge, but comparing to the three 3 2nd tier cities that were pretty close a decade ago it’s a good sized difference.
 
The mid-NE is one of three big 70s developed clusters, along with one in the NW along Crowchild and one in the S along Anderson as well as smaller ones in the Beddington and Riverbend areas. But the mid-NE continues to have a consistent density of toddlers throughout - even though the first map is from 2006 when these communities are 25+ years old. A consistent density is exactly what makes schools the most efficient to operate (if they are provided for at least), and a higher density of toddlers means (again if the schools are provided for) more kids who can walk to school. Part of it is population density; the mid-NE has ~3-4K people per sq km while the other areas are more like ~2-3K. But a big part of it is actually having more toddlers per capita; here's the percent of 0-4 year olds from 2021:
The Properties area also home to a lot of new immigrants which typically have larger families.
 
Conversely, Vancouver is much closer to Calgary-Edmonton-Ottawa in population than it is to Toronto or even Montreal. It has a bit over a million more people than Calgary, and 4.5 million less people than Toronto.
Vancouver feels like a much bigger city at ground level though, definitely closer to Toronto and Montreal than Calgary or Edmonton.
 

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