Statscan numbers

[CalgaryTiger]

I think they built the wrong thing, as has been said. The crazy thing is that wrong thing is still way overpriced to the point where it isn't affordable. They're in this weird spot where they have investors trying to sell their condo they bought preconstruction at a loss and that is still too expensive to sell. Sure, if you're in a good building and you're priced right you're selling but otherwise you're staying on the market. I don't feel bad at all that speculative preconstruction markets have fall off. Condo-Karma.

 

[darwink]

I think they built the wrong thing, as has been said. The crazy thing is that wrong thing is still way overpriced to the point where it isn't affordable. They're in this weird spot where they have investors trying to sell their condo they bought preconstruction at a loss and that is still too expensive to sell. Sure, if you're in a good building and you're priced right you're selling but otherwise you're staying on the market. I don't feel bad at all that speculative preconstruction markets have fall off. Condo-Karma.

Yeah. I’ve read that there are decidedly middle class folks who’ve ridden the condo presale game for 15 years now, and are stuck trying to close on 5 units that they’re all underwater on. All their earnings from previous presale went directly back into new presales and now they will loose everything.

A hard lesson to learn.

 

[CalgaryTiger]

Yeah. I’ve read that there are decidedly middle class folks who’ve ridden the condo presale game for 15 years now, and are stuck trying to close on 5 units that they’re all underwater on. All their earnings from previous presale went directly back into new presales and now they will loose everything.

A hard lesson to learn.

When I read that I do feel a little bad but also, know when to cash out.

Edit:

More than 2,000 condos sitting empty in Metro Vancouver amid housing crisis - BC | Globalnews.ca

Bryan Yu, a chief economist with Central 1, told Global News that despite the availability, buyers still seem to be hesitant to purchase homes.

globalnews.ca

This article doesn't mention one important point about why places are not selling.

A month old but this does...

Vancouver Housing Market | 2025 Home Prices - nesto.ca

Read nesto's latest report on the Vancouver Housing Market Outlook for 2025. Get the real estate insights to guide your house hunting in Vancouver.

www.nesto.ca

• The average selling price of a condo in Vancouver decreased by 0.9% year-over-year to $767,300 in March 2025.

Who can afford that? My wife and I do well and we cannot afford that for a house let alone a condo. Condos being a bad investment is long overdue. Those places need to be for people to live in them, thing is no one really wants to live in them because they're so small and otherwise depressing places to live. The condo market correction is better late than never. It might actually be a good thing that Calgary never saw a condo building boom, it means we don't have too many unlivable, asset first, condos.

 

[trtcttc]

Yeah. I’ve read that there are decidedly middle class folks who’ve ridden the condo presale game for 15 years now, and are stuck trying to close on 5 units that they’re all underwater on. All their earnings from previous presale went directly back into new presales and now they will loose everything.

A hard lesson to learn.

Have no sympathy for investors. Just like I have no issues when the market price rose and they made a profit. Although I do think there's a lot of non-investors impacted as well. I'm in the age cohort (late 20s/early 30s) where people are getting into home ownership. And I know many people that bought these condos in 2021-2024 to live in. They don't have kids, and with prices rising the way they were, people wanted to get on the property ladder. As foolish as that may seem now, it was simply to replicate what those even 5 years older did. Bought a small condo when they're single, use those gains to eventually move to a townhouse further out from the core once they're married or have kids. It's like those entering the job market in 2008 or now, the timing, which is out of your control, just sets you back so far.

 

[CalgaryTiger]

My reading of the data is they acknowledge the Q4 2024 drop but say that the numbers still exceed forecasts. I think the point is, you can say you want to do something but it might not be as easy as you say.

To pick up on this point...

Posthaste: Canada's unemployment rate could reach 7.5% on still strong immigration, says economist

Newcomer approvals have picked up and that will only add to pressure tariffs already applying to hiring and jobs markets. Keep reading here.

financialpost.com

Some quotes...

The population was expected to fall by 0.2 per cent in both 2025 and 2026, dramatically reversing annual growth of almost three per cent for the past two years.

Harry Chambers, an assistant economist at Capital Economics Ltd., said “Nonetheless, there is reason to doubt that the government will fully meet its targets,” Chambers said, adding Capital Economics expects the population will grow by at least 200,000 this year and next.

Scotiabank Economics, which is tracking population and changes in permanent and temporary residents to see if government targets are met, said Canada’s population aged 15 and up grew 1.9 per cent in April and 1.8 per cent in March on a seasonally adjusted annualized rate.

“A positive monthly growth trend still close to two per cent as we approach the halfway point of 2025 seriously starts to erode the government’s ambitious (and always unlikely) plan of shrinking the overall population this year by 0.2 per cent,” Anthony Bambokian, a senior economic analyst at the bank, said in a note.

The article goes on to point out...

Statistics Canada’s population estimates assume visa holders leave the country within 120 days after their permits expire.

“In reality, many stay longer; some transition to permanent residency and others stay under temporary extensions while awaiting decisions on new applications,” Chambers said.

So, I assume we're going to continue to see some large population growth numbers in Calgary.

 

[Surrealplaces]

So, I assume we're going to continue to see some large population growth numbers in Calgary.

I think so. Other cities may see more of a drop, especially cities like Montreal where 90% of the growth was temporary residents. May of those temporary residents will stay, but when 90% of your growth is temporary residents, there will be a growth slowdown.
For Calgary the number of temporary residents was around 40%, and Calgary had far and away the best numbers for net interprovincial gain.

Just for kicks my prediction for the next round of growth numbers will around 60K for Calgary.