CBBarnett
Senior Member
Thanks for the great data and charts! Cool trends.I haven't updated these in a while; here's the monthly pax numbers versus a pre-covid trend projection including seasonality and linear growth:
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International has been the big success, with a lot more summer traffic than the prepandemic trend - more even travel year-round; on the other hand, domestic and transborder are still below the pre-pandemic trend. I suspect this drop is just a long-term effect of Teams, Zoom and the rest normalizing more business being done virtually. This is what it's going to be now.
Based on these recent trends, my guess for 2025 is 13.22M domestic, 3.97M transborder and 2.46M international for a total of 19.65M pax.
However, my guess is that we'll likely underachieve this target. I suspect transborder will have a hit from the nonsense down there; I've had three conversations in the past two weeks where different people have talked about reluctance to travel to the US. In principle that means domestic might benefit as people in other provinces come here for holidays; in practice economic uncertainty leads to less spending on nice things like luxury travel. Internationally, who knows -- on one hand, maybe Banff seems like a less-crazy alternative to Yellowstone; on the other hand, I suspect some international visitors are combining Canada and US travel, and might just go to the Alps or Mt Fuji instead.
Regarding transborder, there’s increasing smoke - surveys all say travel intent has dropped dramatically, now even Westjet is reporting 25% drop in bookings.
That kind of drop in trans-border is massive, we will have to see how sustained it actually is in practice. But with enough smoke - surveys, anecdotes, now airlines all saying US travel is plummeting - perhaps we are witnessing an actual fire?
https://www.ctvnews.ca/calgary/arti...g-to-fly-to-us-since-tariff-talk-started-ceo/