Cowtown
Senior Member
Sooooo, any predictions for tonight‘s election?
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US Politics
- Thread starter AJX
- Start date
Harris will win it. It'll be close in some states, but she'll win Pennsylvania by about 40,000 votes, and that'll get her the presidency. I'm not worried about Trump winning, I'm more worried about any civil discourse after he loses and complains that the elections was fraudulent. The authorities need to come down hard on anybody rioting or storming buildings after the eventual claim that the election was stolen.
darwink
Senior Member
I'm not worried about civil disorder really. It will be more apparent this time around, but it is easy to not recall that there were multiple domestic terrorist attacks (bombs at federal buildings or large events) in the mid 90s alongside multiple 'militia' type group sieges and bombs through the mail. Even then I think it is the worst case, as even getting up to a level of Irish troubles level of unrest is hard as unrest will be isolated and relatively easy to manage. I don't see the capacity existing/ the wherewithal to organize with the security necessary (no radio or internet coms) to be sustainable and effective at scale. The trust between small groups to move from individual action to coordinated unrest is very high.
UrbanWarrior
Senior Member
I'm honestly in shock. He didn't just beat her, it's an electoral college blowout, and he even won the popular vote by millions. Like, do they not see what he is, and what his fundamentalist base represents? Nearly 200 million people (all women + all sexual minorities, and then who knows who theyll come for) are about to lose their rights. Completely fucked up. I feel so sorry for them all.
DougB
Active Member
Trump's victory might unexpectedly be an opportunity for Canada. Trump will renegotiate trade agreements again and probably force Canada to give on at least some of supply management and protection of telecom, media commercial air travel and financial services.
I know polls can't be trusted, but damn, I mean they couldn't have been more wrong. The day before the election everyone was quoting Seltzer poll in Iowa and mentioning what a great pollster she is, and she was off by a mile. Polling was off for just about every state, not just off but really off the mark.
UrbanWarrior
Senior Member
It could be a boon for Alberta politics as well. After 2 years of democratic backsliding and the theft of rights in the United States, moderates here may swing largely to the NDP. Especially with Nenshi being popular in Calgary.
In trying to look at the bright side of the results, maybe 4 years of Trump in power and not doing anything will open up people's eyes. So many people who were asked why they were voting for Trump brought up the economy and the cost of living increases. Does anyone expect Trump to solve those issues? I mean the economy isn't even that terrible, but rising costs are real. I just don't expect Trump to resolve those. He has also said that the conflicts in Gaza and Ukraine wouldn't have happened if he were in power and that he'll fix those. Good luck.
MichaelS
Senior Member
Any guesses on if Keystone XL will restart?
darwink
Senior Member
A 20% external tariff is a 20% external tariff no matter what. I expect this administration to be much more unilateral than the last.
With a 20% tariff on the oil inside it makes no sense, it also doesn't have oil to fill it in the absolute sense, plus on the customers sense--the project has been wrapped up and the customers were released from their commitments.
CalgaryTiger
Senior Member
The biggest thing going forward is the uncertainty. There is no steady hand leading the world's biggest economy that could make things quite variable, good for some things to do with Canada and Alberta but bad for others.
Have you ever tried to walk around a room in the dark not knowing what you might run into? That will be business and government dealing with the next four years.
Have you ever tried to walk around a room in the dark not knowing what you might run into? That will be business and government dealing with the next four years.
DougB
Active Member
Trump could make inflation worse if he doesn't take action on the deficit. I doubt Harris would be much different.
DougB
Active Member
Canada will do whatever it takes to be inside the US tariff wall. It doesn't have much choice.
DougB
Active Member
The oil could be there in short order. Lots of SAGD plants can add new pads in 1.5 - 3 years
darwink
Senior Member
Vibes versus numbers on this one. People are certainly welcome to lose their investors' money by trying I guess.
The numbers might improve too if the Canadian dollar plummets.