Thanks for those stats. I'm also a believer in the "law of averages".
One thing I've also wondered about is whether demand for detached and semi-detached homes in Calgary is, ironically, partly driven by a lack of rental units in multi-family buildings. When I moved to Calgary in 2015, I looked for rentals in high-rise/mid-rise buildings first. I was struck by the high prices and lack of options available. So I ended up renting an entire 1950s semi-detached home for about the same price as I would have been paying for a unit in a high-rise. Even though I wanted to live in a more centrally-located tower, I just couldn't turn down the value proposition of having three times as much space, a yard, and a garage for the same price.
If we do get a major boom in rental units dumped into Calgary, even if it creates high vacancy rates, maybe it gives people more choices and more competitive rates that make renting more attractive vis-a-vis detached/semi-detached homes. Even people who might be more included to want to live in a house may decide it's just easier to rent in a tower if the price is right or they have a lot of choice.
Good comments.
I agree the lack of supply is likely a bigger barrier in itself in how limited supply restricts rental choice at different quality/amenity/price levels. The issue is certainly true in the core where there was largely a 20 year gap in new rentals (purpose-built or condo rental) from 1985 - 2005. That gap leaves a weird amenity and price gap - a ton of older supply built pre-1985 that remains cheap but are also out of date and without many contemporary amenities from everything like kitchen quality, laundry, bicycle storage etc.
With the whack load of post-2015 supply starting to come online - we should start to see that filtering process kick into gear again. Shiny new, amenity rich places that seem expensive today will slowly age, get out of date with more developments (presumably) always coming down the pipeline. The 2035 version of
@Silence&Motion moving to Calgary, will have a very different mix of old, new, amenity light/heavy rentals to choose from in the core.
But when the core lacks rental diversity, the quadrants are even more limited. There was/is almost zero rental/condo tower development outside the core at all, the few that exist are old and a drop in the seas of single-use, largely SFH ownership-heavy communities in the 1970s-1990s that really didn't offer any purpose-built rental at all or much choice. This is thankfully changing as well with all the different scales of in-neighbourhood infills in popular areas offering new choices plus starting to see more clusters of apartment towers forming.
Future supply/price for homes is the biggest variable for sure. Home prices in Calgary remains attainable relative to other cities, which is why Calgary has the highest rate of home ownership amongst major Canadian cities. Unless attitudes toward home ownership change or supply decreases drastically, I think the volume of purpose built rentals required is going to be dependent on developers continuing to divert attention towards purpose built rentals and the City limiting new development on the periphery (which would probably be absorbed by adjacent municipalities).
The affordability of ownership is certainly part of the story, it seems somewhat robust factor as we continue to allow significant supply for cheaper greenfield than Canada's biggest metros can/want to. However, Edmonton allows substantial greenfield and has great affordability, but also has a substantially larger rental supply, so it's probably not the only factor in the rental supply.
I do wonder how if greenfield/ownership affordability will weaken as a factor in reducing rental supply as the region keeps growing. The city and region are so big now and travel times are getting vast. Lots of pretty wild price differentials are forming for ownership in specific areas v. others - the region as a whole is affordable, but the pockets that aren't are increasing as well. For many popular neighbourhoods, rental would be the only affordable option.
As the city expands the locational benefits of certain areas becomes starker, I could see more people choosing location and ownership/rental preference differently in a larger Calgary than a smaller one.
