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The Great Canadian Tariff Thread

Albertasaurus said:
I'm concerned about that too, and I'm sure I'm not the only one who has noticed the lack of new proposals in the last month or so since Trump has ramped up his tariff rhetoric. I would imagine developers are taking a "wait and see" attitude with regard to both the overall economy and material costs, and banks might be more conservative with financing new development until they get a better sense of how this will all play out.

I hope common sense ultimately prevails, but right now I'm not optimistic with the state of things in Washington.
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Congress will eventually overturn most if not all of Trump's EO's. It is likely waiting for Trump's approval rating to sink, which will happen soon. Nothing turns Americans against their government more than increased prices.
 
DougB said:
Congress will eventually overturn most if not all of Trump's EO's. It is likely waiting for Trump's approval rating to sink, which will happen soon. Nothing turns Americans against their government more than increased prices.
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I am not sure they will. Republicans in Congress seem to be in thrall. Trump's ability to swing race, combined with new PACs financed by the Trump inner circle to enforce those swings, puts them in an even worse place, if they wanted to .

Trump's circle is already laying the groundwork for saying that the recession isn't real, that the economic growth under Biden was a lie, so any drop down to the level of the first Trump term is inconsequential.
 
Congress is owned by Trump, they drop to their knees if he rattles his zipper. This is going to get far worse before it gets better.

Disappointed to see a partial rebound in US stock markets, though my portfolio appreciates it.
 
Mountain Man said:
Congress is owned by Trump, they drop to their knees if he rattles his zipper. This is going to get far worse before it gets better.

Disappointed to see a partial rebound in US stock markets, though my portfolio appreciates it.
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Until it isn't. Most of Congress wants to be re-elected. Trump can't run again and no one else can have the cult of personality to pick up the MAGA torch. Once enough Congressman fear they will lose their seats due to increased prices, they will distance themselves from Trump. Americans tend to have short attention spans and even more important, live to consume. It might take a few months, which is why I hope Canada doesn't over-react and take dumb actions like protecting additional industries or try to stimulate the economy.
 
darwink said:
I am not sure they will. Republicans in Congress seem to be in thrall. Trump's ability to swing race, combined with new PACs financed by the Trump inner circle to enforce those swings, puts them in an even worse place, if they wanted to .

Trump's circle is already laying the groundwork for saying that the recession isn't real, that the economic growth under Biden was a lie, so any drop down to the level of the first Trump term is inconsequential.
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Any combination of higher interest rates or higher prices will indisputably be real. Americans generally react very badly to anything that interferes with consumption.

Money in US politics more or less cancels out. For every dollar of pro-Trump PAC spending, there is a dollar of of anti-Trump.
 
Congress won't try to upset Trump for the next 3 years (or until the democrats gain control in the midterms) since he has all the power. As his term nears its end, then maybe you will see republicans grow a spine, so long as he doesn't create a way to extend his term or end term limits.
 
It'll be interesting to see where the market goes. I looked at mine earlier and saw a long list of sticks in the red. Not one single green. I only have a few American stocks, the vast majority is TSX.
 
Mountain Man said:
Congress won't try to upset Trump for the next 3 years (or until the democrats gain control in the midterms) since he has all the power. As his term nears its end, then maybe you will see republicans grow a spine, so long as he doesn't create a way to extend his term or end term limits.
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Trump may act like he has all the power, but he doesn't.

He can't extend or end term limits as that would require approval of 75% of the states - never going to happen.

US politics is a perpetual campaign. Several GOP Congressional seats will be at risk if the tariffs carry on more than a few months.
 
It's not how Trump acts, it's how his sycophants act. Trump has all the power while republicans willingly kiss the ring. Liz Cheny stood up to him last time, where is she now? I haven't seen anything from Republicans / Fox to show any real critique of his actions so far (though it's been what, 6 weeks?). Trump has the power because the Maga cult supports him 100%, nobody wants to rock that boat. Yet.
 
Mountain Man said:
Market has already rebounded.
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The market will market.

Floating currency rates act as an automatic stabilizer of sorts.
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DougB said:
Trump may act like he has all the power, but he doesn't.

He can't extend or end term limits as that would require approval of 75% of the states - never going to happen.

US politics is a perpetual campaign. Several GOP Congressional seats will be at risk if the tariffs carry on more than a few months.
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I have a sense that the USA is much more vulnerable than you suspect to standard strongman stuff. The brief to reinterpret the term limits amendment.

Trump due to immunity for Presidential 'acts' can also go around and do things way outside of what I believed was possible in a division of powers system.
 
darwink said:
I have a sense that the USA is much more vulnerable than you suspect to standard strongman stuff. The brief to reinterpret the term limits amendment.

Trump due to immunity for Presidential 'acts' can also go around and do things way outside of what I believed was possible in a division of powers system.
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That is wishful thinking. The US political system is too decentralized and too complex to move towards authoritarianism. Most important, individualism runs strong in the American psyche. Someone will challenge Trump.
 
Seeing how the Republican led congress responded to everything Trump said with a standing ovation last night, I think they will do whatever he wants. I have zero faith anyone who was cheering and applauding him will do anything to keep him in check. The only way he will be accountable is if Democrats retake the house in mid terms.
 
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