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Statscan numbers

Jan 14th will be an interesting day for the stats nerds.

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Release schedule

www150.statcan.gc.ca www150.statcan.gc.ca
 
These are my predictions. They're conservative numbers, and most likely will be higher, but we'll see.

Toronto +10,000
Montreal +5,000
Vancouver +5,000
Calgary +45,000
Ottawa +20,000
Edmonton+30,000
Winnipeg +5,000
Quebec +1,000
KW +15,000
Hamilton +3,000
Halifax +10,000
Victoria +2,000
Saskatoon +6,000
Regina +3,000
 
I know this is strictly anecdotal, but Calgary seems to have been getting noticeably busier every year since the growth spurt that started a few years ago, and this past year has been no exception, so i am still bullish on our growth this year. Surreal's numbers seem pretty reasonable to me, although I bet Winnipeg's growth will be a little higher (gonna guess 10-15k) and I could see Toronto and Vancouver possibly seeing a slight decline. Also betting Quebec will grow closer to 10k. Kw will be interesting to watch - on the one hand, both the tech growth and being an affordable alternative to the GTA are sources of growth but its also a college town that could take a hit from the reduction in student visas.
 
Surrealplaces said:
These are my predictions. They're conservative numbers, and most likely will be higher, but we'll see.

Toronto +10,000
Montreal +5,000
Vancouver +5,000
Calgary +45,000
Ottawa +20,000
Edmonton+30,000
Winnipeg +5,000
Quebec +1,000
KW +15,000
Hamilton +3,000
Halifax +10,000
Victoria +2,000
Saskatoon +6,000
Regina +3,000
Click to expand...
I agree the numbers will be higher, maybe 25-30% higher. Next year's we'll see some cities have negative numbers.
 
Stephen Ave said:
I would guess for most cities it will be about a third to half of 2024 numbers.

Toronto +60,000
Montreal +35,000
Vancouver +40,000
Calgary +45,000
Ottawa +20,000
Edmonton+30,000
Winnipeg +5,000
Click to expand...
Those are also my predications. Smaller numbers than last year, but strong. Next year will be different.
 
Cowtown said:
Stats are out. https://www150.statcan.gc.ca/t1/tbl1/en/tv.action?pid=1710014801

The main story. Calgary officially Canada’s fastest growing city in raw numbers, with Edmonton not far behind. Toronto CMA lost population, and Vancouver with only a slight gain.
Click to expand...
It's kind of wild seeing the next set of small, big cities really emerge with consistent growth.
  • Winnipeg: 951K
  • Quebec City: 903K
  • Hamilton: 871K
  • Kitchener - Waterloo: 701K
  • London: 633K
To put that in perspective, Winnipeg is currently where Calgary was in 2001. Who knows what the future will bring, but even at a modest growth rate in these places Canada would be adding another 3 or 4 cities to the million-person club over the next decade or two.

My other observation from these estimates is just how massive the Golden Horseshoe has become, even with minor negative growth in Toronto itself. Surrounding cities like Hamilton and Oshawa continue to grow, plus there's a whole list of other minor cities that are very nearby too. Depending on how lines are drawn and cities counted on the map, easily 8.5 to 10 million people in the Toronto area now.
 
Last edited:
Here's the list of the metros over 500K. We won't see this kind of list very often where Toronto and Vancouver are at the bottom. Maybe one more year, but outside of that not very often if ever again.

Calgary +52351
Edmonton +50717
Ottawa +38048
Montreal +25024
Winnipeg +11748
St Catherines +10062
Quebec +8916
Hamilton +8464
Halifax +8462
Vancouver +6323
London +6127
Kitchener Waterloo +2166
Toronto -992
 
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