darwink
Senior Member
Lots of shadow additions, with old housing being split into multiple units. Plus for international students especially, there is crowding. A single house to three two bedroom apartments, then with 6 people each in them.
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Statscan numbers
- Thread starter kora
- Start date
kora
Active Member
Ok, but why not the same thing in Ottawa and not Edmonton and Calgary?
darwink
Senior Member
Far less of a constraint, plus far fewer houses that are compatible with that type of conversion. Also the surge in Ontario was so much steeper, that the housing market is trying to catch a rocket (there isn't a great analogy that is the reverse of catching a falling knife)
kora
Active Member
I mean if I was a foreign student, I think Calgary would be more of an attractive place than Ottawa. Calgary is more fun. But Ottawa is more central geographically and has the benefit of being the national capital.
darwink
Senior Member
Oh a different. Schools added capacity there like nobodies business, because their government has been even worse than the UCP on post-secondary funding.
kora
Active Member
Once the 2025 CMA estimates come out, I think we'll see a big difference in population change between Calgary and Ottawa
Cowtown
Senior Member
The number for growth vs housing starts has been fairly consistent for Cgy/Edm/Ott. Outside of the recent higher number of permanent residents gain in Ottawa that you mentioned, Ottawa has been growing at about 40% of Calgary's population growth, which is in line with the ratio of housing starts.
Keep in mind that Ottawa having a higher number of perm presidents doesn't mean much, as there is still natural increase, intra-provincial migration, and inter-provincial migration, as well, we have a number of NPRs who will be staying.
How things will look in 2026 might be different. Maybe Ottawa's growth is ramping up, and housing starts will follow? If I had to make a guess I would say that from July 2025-July 2026 Calgary is still going to grow more than Ottawa. Instead of 100K vs 40K, it might be more like 50K vs 30K
Cowtown
Senior Member
I think Calgary will still be significantly higher than Ottawa (like double the growth), but July 2025-July 2026 will probably be closer.
CBBarnett
Senior Member
So AB was the clear winner, but the relative scale is interesting too. Quebec was the single greatest negative migration, but due to a large population doesn't really register. Same with Ontario. Sask, Manitoba and New Brunswick were the biggest relative losers, while PEI and AB were both the relative winners (with AB being the absolute winner).
My take is there's a story here about interprovincial migration but it's a relative minor, especially compared to the ginormous swing for international.
Interesting numbers, thanks for posting. I would agree the net gain of via interprovincial migration is a relative minor story compared to the past two years with massive international migration numbers, but I would also say that with international immigration down across the board, interprovincial migration now becomes more of a story. As for the cause it appears to be jobs related as per Beltline's post.
Alex_YYC
Senior Member
A big difference in population between the two cities or a big difference in the two city's rate of growth from 2024 to 2025?
kora
Active Member
Rate of growth
Tarsus
Active Member
I’m not expecting a big change when the numbers come out in the new year. I predict the growth numbers from July of 2024 to July 2025 will show Ottawa at about 50 or 60% of Calgary‘s growth.
When numbers come out for the period between July 2025 and July 2026, the numbers will be a lot closer. How much closer is anyone’s guess but I would say Calgary would still have more growth, but Ottawa’s growth would be about 75% of Calgary rather than the 40% we’ve seen the past couple of years.
kora
Active Member
Alberta, and especially Calgary, has become a stable immigration destination, even surpassing BC:
"Ontario (90.8%), Alberta (86.0%), British Columbia (84.9%) and Quebec (79.6%) had the largest shares of immigrants residing there five years after their admission."
"In Ontario (+8,080), Alberta (+5,500) and British Columbia (+3,030), there were more immigrants admitted in 2018 who moved in from another province or territory than immigrants who moved out within a period of five years after admission. "
"Calgary was the top destination among the immigrants admitted in 2018 who initially chose Edmonton and the second most popular CMA for those who had Vancouver and Winnipeg as intended destination."
"Among immigrants admitted in 2018, Vancouver (+2,030), Calgary (+3,860) and Edmonton (+1,655) had more immigrants moving in than moving out over five years."
"Ontario (90.8%), Alberta (86.0%), British Columbia (84.9%) and Quebec (79.6%) had the largest shares of immigrants residing there five years after their admission."
"In Ontario (+8,080), Alberta (+5,500) and British Columbia (+3,030), there were more immigrants admitted in 2018 who moved in from another province or territory than immigrants who moved out within a period of five years after admission. "
"Calgary was the top destination among the immigrants admitted in 2018 who initially chose Edmonton and the second most popular CMA for those who had Vancouver and Winnipeg as intended destination."
"Among immigrants admitted in 2018, Vancouver (+2,030), Calgary (+3,860) and Edmonton (+1,655) had more immigrants moving in than moving out over five years."
BKha
Active Member
This is something I’ve always wondered about. I know quite a few immigrants who originally started in Winnipeg, or other cities but moved here and wondered if those numbers were tracked.