Statscan numbers

[Albertasaurus]

Wowsers, I never thought I would see the day when almost every province and territory lost population.

 

[Surrealplaces]

Yeah, kind of crazy, but expected. Interesting to see Alberta with a solid 11K net gain. does anyone know what's driving the growth? I assume jobs are a big part of it, but wonder which sectors? or is it a bunch of sectors all doing well?

 

[CBBarnett]

Yeah, kind of crazy, but expected. Interesting to see Alberta with a solid 11K net gain. does anyone know what's driving the growth? I assume jobs are a big part of it, but wonder which sectors? or is it a bunch of sectors all doing well?

The components of the 11,525 growth were positive natural growth (+5,676) and interprovincial migration (+5,652). Notably Alberta's net international migration was near zero (+197). This is the first time since the pandemic that stopped nearly all migration where natural growth was the largest component of growth. Another few years and Alberta will transition to having negative natural growth like most other provinces.

So 11,525 is relatively strong (obviously, as everywhere else is shrinking or flat growth). But it isn't really a "boom" in any meaningful sense of the word: this is down 80% from the rapid growth period where Alberta was growing at closer to 50,000 to 60,000 / quarter for a few year in a row.

 

[MichaelS]

Q3 2025 population stats are out, and Canada as a whole lost 76,000 people, but Alberta gained 11K.
View attachment 703443

This is insane to me. I mean, I get that Alberta is a great place to live, but what is going on with the rest of Canada? Surely this is sparking some serious conversations within our federal government about funding allocation?

 

[CBBarnett]

This is insane to me. I mean, I get that Alberta is a great place to live, but what is going on with the rest of Canada? Surely this is sparking some serious conversations within our federal government about funding allocation?

It's easy to forget how much these numbers are influenced by international immigration (as opposed to interprovincial migration and natural growth). Ontario was slightly positive natural growth (+7,000), slightly negative interprovincial migration (~-900) and really negative international migration (~-74,000). Removing international immigration, AB, BC, Ontario and Quebec all had positive growth.

Once the immigration picture stabilizes at some lower level Alberta won't stand out as much. It's a story of few modestly growing provinces, and a bunch of modestly shrinking ones. Within a few years all provinces (including AB) will be modestly shrinking without immigration.

 

[darwink]

Surely this is sparking some serious conversations within our federal government about funding allocation?

Funding is allocated by population.

It's easy to forget how much these numbers are influenced by international immigration

Yeah.

Here are the number of international students in Ontario. The number is plummeting. Hard to overcome that!

 

[UrbanWarrior]

This is a really… REEEALLY good thing. Don’t give a shit about property values, I give a shit about people being able to survive, and this is going to help correct prices.

 

[RolleyMakr_168]

This is a really… REEEALLY good thing. Don’t give a shit about property values, I give a shit about people being able to survive, and this is going to help correct prices.

Exactly. Supply has been straining for years now with all the demand. Hopefully this also means infrastructure gets caught up to par with the massive increases-- but I am naturally skeptical

 

[DougB]

Exactly. Supply has been straining for years now with all the demand. Hopefully this also means infrastructure gets caught up to par with the massive increases-- but I am naturally skeptical

I agree that reduced demand is positive. I also share the skepticism of ON and BC removing barriers to supply. Canada is a vampiric gerontocracy with considerable inertia to reforming the housing market, pensions and healthcare it will be interesting to see what happens. In a functional housing market, the correction should be the largest in history

 

[Surrealplaces]

The components of the 11,525 growth were positive natural growth (+5,676) and interprovincial migration (+5,652). Notably Alberta's net international migration was near zero (+197). This is the first time since the pandemic that stopped nearly all migration where natural growth was the largest component of growth. Another few years and Alberta will transition to having negative natural growth like most other provinces.

So 11,525 is relatively strong (obviously, as everywhere else is shrinking or flat growth). But it isn't really a "boom" in any meaningful sense of the word: this is down 80% from the rapid growth period where Alberta was growing at closer to 50,000 to 60,000 / quarter for a few year in a row.

Aside from a strong natural increase, the other numbers - interprovincial and international migration are still strong relative to other provinces. Wondering if it’s jobs, housing affordability or both?

 

[Dkeirle]

Aside from a strong natural increase, the other numbers - interprovincial and international migration are still strong relative to other provinces. Wondering if it’s jobs, housing affordability or both?

Jobs are part of it for sure. The unemployment rate is high, but it doesn’t tell the true story. Jobs are still being created in Alberta.
Toronto and Vancouver (BC in general) are still prohibitively expensive.

 

[Beltline_B]

The components of the 11,525 growth were positive natural growth (+5,676) and interprovincial migration (+5,652). Notably Alberta's net international migration was near zero (+197). This is the first time since the pandemic that stopped nearly all migration where natural growth was the largest component of growth. Another few years and Alberta will transition to having negative natural growth like most other provinces.

So 11,525 is relatively strong (obviously, as everywhere else is shrinking or flat growth). But it isn't really a "boom" in any meaningful sense of the word: this is down 80% from the rapid growth period where Alberta was growing at closer to 50,000 to 60,000 / quarter for a few year in a row.

Natural growth will no doubt decline, but it will still be higher than other provinces for quite some time, not just for a few years, but for quite a while. as for being a boom, yes and no. It's not a boom compared to previous quarters, but in the context of Q3 2025 numbers relative to other provinces it could be considered a boom, or at least very strong growth. The net interprovincial gain of 5,652 for one quarter is very strong. I'd be curious to see what the net inter-provincial numbers are for other provinces.

 

[Beltline_B]

Jobs are part of it for sure. The unemployment rate is high, but it doesn’t tell the true story. Jobs are still being created in Alberta.
Toronto and Vancouver (BC in general) are still prohibitively expensive.

I don't have numbers for the third quarter, but November looks good. Also the previously high unemployment rate has been dropping.

Regionally, Alberta stood out as the strongest performer in November. Employment in the province jumped by 29,000, an increase of 1.1% and the second notable advance in three months. On a year‑over‑year basis, Alberta has added 105,000 jobs, or 4.2%. The provincial unemployment rate dropped 1.3 percentage points to 6.5%, the lowest since March 2024. Statistics Canada also highlights improvements in the major urban centres: unemployment fell in the Calgary census metropolitan area to 7.3% and in Edmonton to 7.7% (on a three‑month moving average basis).

source

 

[Surrealplaces]

November Housing starts are out. Montreal tops the list with Calgary 2nd and Vancouver a close 3rd.

City	SFH	semi	row	apartment	total
Montreal	142	34	61	3052	3289
Calgary	552	226	347	1363	2488
Vancouver	173	196	225	1789	2383
Toronto	354	10	376	1311	2051
Edmonton	406	126	280	822	1634
Ott/Gat	194	35	298	628	1155

 

[kora]

I just don't know how Ottawa manages to keep pace with Edmonton and Calgary in population given their consistently low housing start numbers