Statscan numbers

[Albertasaurus]

Wow the Ottawa scenarios really are bleak. Wtf is that about? Waterloo RM + Guelph will be coming up on 1.4 million by that time, maybe more. Nipping right at Ottawa’s heels. Crazy to think.

Then there’s potential for Quebec City-Levis to hit 1 million by that time, but the only two that seem to be in the bag are Winnipeg and Waterloo.

Those Ottawa numbers do seem a little low to me. It might come down to an aging population? Also being near Toronto and Montreal, Ottawa tends to get overlooked, and doesn't seem to draw as many immigrants as the other big cities.

 

[Surrealplaces]

Ottawa's didn't make sense, even adding Gatineau with it, it wasn't much higher than today's CMA numbers. I don't believe the maps are apples to apples, as the Ottawa map might not have been the updated Ottawa CMA. I didn't take the time to go through and figure it out, but a quick look showed the maps to be similar, but not exactly the same.
That said, there are some things to consider for sure. One is that Ottawa has a much older population than Calgary. The other is that the high tech industry there has been stagnant. Government jobs while increasing nationally haven't been increasing at the same rate in Ottawa. If Edmonton will be 600,000 to 800,000 behind Calgary, It wouldn't surprise me to see Ottawa around 300,000 to 400,000 behind Edmonton by 2049.

 

[Surrealplaces]

One item about the decline in oil and gas jobs. Edmonton, was where a lot of the field workers seemed to live. It is those jobs that have declined as a bit of faster pace as automation and initial buildout of projects have progressed.

Agreed. There was a post from I think @ByeByeBaby where he had rough numbers for jobs directly and indirect related to oil and gas for both cities, and Edmonton had a lower percentage, but not a big difference, and if I recall both cities were declining at maybe a similar rate. Calgary tends to lose a lot of jobs due to mergers, etc.. or efficiency changes such as moving HO staff to Houston, while Edmonton's would be tied to general decline in production, or via automation.