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Statscan numbers

Albertasaurus said:
It's going to be very difficult to predict where growth will actually be next year. The number of TFWs who actually leave vs some who either find a legal way to stay, or stay illegally is up in the air. The amount of asylum/refugee claimant resulting from the incoming Trump administration policies is a question mark. How strict our own government will be with regard to deportation is another question mark. And speaking of Trump, whether he follows through on tariff threats could be a big hit to our economy (or not), and of course the global geopolitical situation is a dumpster fire which could lead to plummeting or soaring oil prices.

A lot of variables potentially affecting us all at once, but at least the whole country will likely be in the same boat this time, for better or worse.
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A not so happy new year. People wanted to shake things up, things have definitely been shaken.

We're about to get on our own journey into the unknown too. I assume there will be a Conservative majority government, what that means is anyone's guess.
 
Surrealplaces said:
Housing Starts for November. Not much out of the ordinary other than Montreal having a strong month.

CitySFHsemirowapartmenttotal
Vancouver200787923212678
Montreal119447924072649
Calgary71719833812952548
Toronto4733329515002301
Edmonton78918225810142143
Ott/Gat220343595121115
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Calgary versus Edmonton is interesting. Even with their blanket rezoning being in affect for longer we're consistently ahead of them in row and they're at or above us in SFH.
 
CalgaryTiger said:
Calgary versus Edmonton is interesting. Even with their blanket rezoning being in affect for longer we're consistently ahead of them in row and they're at or above us in SFH.
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From what I've seen so far, construction of the high density rowhomes only seems to be going into the areas where it makes sense and where the demand is. With Edmonton's cheaper cost for SFH's they're still building more SFHs than we are.
 
Latest quarterly provincial population estimates are out: https://www150.statcan.gc.ca/t1/tbl1/en/tv.action?pid=1710000901

Highlights:
- Canada nears 41.5 million people, with 176,000 this quarter, YoY growth of 952,000
- Alberta well past 4.9 million, 43,000 this quarter. Will hit 5 million by Q2 2025. YoY growth of 187,000
- Ontario nearly at 16.2 million with 48,000 this quarter
- Quebec becomes 2nd fastest growing province (relatively uncommon) with 44,000 and reaches 9.1 million people
- BC a distant 4th with 21,000 growth, but surpasses 5.7 million
- Manitoba reaches 1.5 million
 
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UrbanWarrior said:
Latest quarterly provincial population estimates are out: https://www150.statcan.gc.ca/t1/tbl1/en/tv.action?pid=1710000901

Highlights:
- Canada nears 41.5 million people, with 176,000 this quarter, YoY growth of 952,000
- Alberta well past 4.9 million, 43,000 this quarter. Will hit 5 million by Q2 2025. YoY growth of 187,000
- Ontario nearly at 16.2 million with 48,000 this quarter
- Quebec becomes 2nd fastest growing province (relatively uncommon) with 44,000 and reaches 9.1 million people
- BC a distant 4th with 21,000 growth, but surpasses 5.7 million
- Manitoba reaches 1.5 million
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Almost 4% in AB or 186,704 or almost entirety of Red Deer + Lethbridge, the 3rd and 4th largest cities in the province.
 
DougB said:
betterdwelling.com

Canadians Still Moving To Alberta, East Coast Appeal Fizzles Out: BMO - Better Dwelling

The pandemic kicked off a Great Migration for Canadians, who fled expensive provinces for affordable housing. That boom is ending for Atlantic Canada, but continues in Alberta according to a new analysis from BMO Capital Markets. They found the two biggest losers are BC and Ontario, where people...
betterdwelling.com betterdwelling.com
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I see this source gets posted a lot but it's essentially fake news. They have zero citations, their link to "BMO" is a generic corporate site.

BMO's published reports are here: https://economics.bmo.com/en/publications/. There are no recently published reports related to the headline they post about.
 
trtcttc said:
I see this source gets posted a lot but it's essentially fake news. They have zero citations, their link to "BMO" is a generic corporate site.

BMO's published reports are here: https://economics.bmo.com/en/publications/. There are no recently published reports related to the headline they post about.
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The source is not great, but... Statscan did update 17-10-0020-01 on December 17th.

Here is a quick excel to calculate net per quarter
1734720879758.png


Likely BetterDwell ran a couple news articles through an AI system to seem like it was original, and published an article.
 
darwink said:
The source is not great, but... Statscan did update 17-10-0020-01 on December 17th.

Here is a quick excel to calculate net per quarter
View attachment 620935

Likely BetterDwell ran a couple news articles through an AI system to seem like it was original, and published an article.
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I don't disagree with the conclusion but they always publish articles citing some major bank that have zero sources but gets shared widely. But back to the migration, Atlantic Canada just doesn't create enough jobs. AB unemployment is higher but that's because of a higher participation rate. Employment rate is about 64% in AB vs 50-60% for the Atlantic provinces.
 
trtcttc said:
I don't disagree with the conclusion but they always publish articles citing some major bank that have zero sources but gets shared widely. But back to the migration, Atlantic Canada just doesn't create enough jobs. AB unemployment is higher but that's because of a higher participation rate. Employment rate is about 64% in AB vs 50-60% for the Atlantic provinces.
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Yep. When people moved during covid they had a job in hand, but with covid over companies hiring people to work remotely is happening less and less.

100% anecdotal, but I know of two different people who moved to NB to work remotely during covid, but have moved back to Calgary and Grande Prairie respectively, because their spouse couldn't find a decent paying job.
 
Surrealplaces said:
Yep. When people moved during covid they had a job in hand, but with covid over companies hiring people to work remotely is happening less and less.

100% anecdotal, but I know of two different people who moved to NB to work remotely during covid, but have moved back to Calgary and Grande Prairie respectively, because their spouse couldn't find a decent paying job.
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And I wonder if it's lifestyle too. During COVID it probably seems nice to be away from he crowds, and slower pace. But people live in large metros for a reason and one reason Alberta has continued to attract people is the economic opportunities and really the last affordable (relatively speaking) metros.
 
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